[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"496260","ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by","Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nRaul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.\n\nVisits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.\n\nCustody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?” is a political prediction market asking whether Raul Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the chance that U.S. personnel, including military, intelligence, or other authorized agents acting under direct U.S. authority, physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume custody of Castro. A voluntary surrender to U.S. custody would also count, while brief contact, travel, or presence in U.S. facilities without detention would not. This event sits at the intersection of Cuba, U.S. politics, and geopolitics, with tags referencing Trump and Diaz-Canel, which helps explain the market’s broader diplomatic and security context. As of the latest market data, the implied probability is about 13.2%, suggesting traders view the expected outcome as unlikely but not impossible. Resolution will rely on official U.S. government information and credible reporting, making this a clear event prediction for anyone tracking political forecast markets and custody-related odds.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16],"Cuba","Trump","Geopolitics","Diaz-Canel","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30-xrWSgh7yTG4n.jpg",13.2,13975.284223,316271.5227699999,58431.22867,202396.894807,113555.34467649997,true,false,"2026-05-18T14:16:29.832Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-17T22:55:15.480Z","2026-05-30T10:31:07.561Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"ex-cuba leader raul castro in us custody by...?","ex-cuba leader raul castro in us custody by...? prediction","ex-cuba leader raul castro in us custody by...? odds","ex-cuba leader raul castro in us custody by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:07:54.081Z","2026-05-30T10:42:50.273Z",0,[43,61,73],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":24},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,48,49,50,51,52,53,54],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":65,"probability":41,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":24},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,15,66,67],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":77,"probability":41,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":24},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,78,67,79,14,66,15],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676611499]