[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-evo-morales-arrested-by-may-31":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"329682","evo-morales-arrested-by-may-31","Evo Morales arrested by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest\u002Fdetention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest\u002Fdetention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Evo Morales arrested by...? is a political prediction market asking whether former President of Bolivia Evo Morales will be arrested or detained by law enforcement before May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes if Morales is taken into official custody, formally booked, placed under house arrest, or otherwise detained in a qualifying law-enforcement action; it resolves to No if no such arrest or detention occurs by the deadline. The market excludes situations such as an unexecuted arrest warrant, questioning without arrest, or indictment alone. As a politics category event in the arrest subcategory, it draws attention to developments in Bolivia and any official actions involving national, local, military, or international authorities. Current market probability is about 2.45%, indicating traders see an arrest as possible but unlikely. The forecast reflects market sentiment around legal and political risk rather than certainty, and the outcome depends on official government or law-enforcement reporting, with credible media used as backup if needed. The market is active through the end-of-May 2026 window, making it a time-sensitive event prediction for traders tracking Bolivia politics and arrest-related odds.","POLITICS","arrest",[11,13,14,15],"Bolivia","Politics","Culture","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fevo-morales-arrested-by-may-31-XlIt6nRUZjQT.jpg",2.45,761.096396,10338.039039,2544.50453,11514.543497,3990.8608157,true,false,"2026-03-31T21:43:59.874Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-31T17:45:35.947Z","2026-05-30T10:35:23.699Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fevo-morales-arrested-by-may-31?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"evo morales arrested by...?","evo morales arrested by...? prediction","evo morales arrested by...? odds","evo morales arrested by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:45:39.421Z","2026-05-30T10:43:26.122Z",0,[42,60,73],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":46,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[14,47,48,49,50,51,52,53],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":64,"probability":40,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[14,65,66,67],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":48,"tags":77,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":23},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[48,47,14,78,79,80,81],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676584519]