[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-elon-musk-wins-10b-settlement-against-altmanopenai":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"425601","elon-musk-wins-10b-settlement-against-altmanopenai","Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman\u002FOpenAI?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.\n\nIf a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to \"No\". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.\n\nIf Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman\u002FOpenAI? is a technology prediction market tracking the outcome of Musk v. Altman et al. in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The market asks whether Elon Musk will be awarded or receive at least $10 billion in cash or cash-equivalent compensation in the initial trial proceedings, whether through a jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement. Non-monetary relief does not count, and later appeals or retrials are excluded from resolution.\n\nThe forecast matters because it sits at the intersection of Big Tech, AI, and the courts, with OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk central to the dispute. Traders are effectively pricing the probability that the initial trial will produce a settlement or award at or above the $10 billion threshold before the market deadline of December 31, 2026. Current market probability is about 1.4%, suggesting very low odds of that expected outcome at present. Resolution will rely primarily on official court information, with credible reporting used as a secondary source.","TECH","Tech",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"OpenAI","AI","Big Tech","Courts","Musk v Altman","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Felon-musk-wins-10b-settlement-against-altmanopenai-4ItibokfDa6w.jpg",1.4,193.91,25622.664697,5796.26587,18881.39132,8943.0075831,true,false,"2026-04-27T23:52:50.786Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-27T23:42:38.532Z","2026-05-30T10:40:13.029Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Felon-musk-wins-10b-settlement-against-altmanopenai?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"elon musk wins $10b+ settlement against altman\u002Fopenai?","elon musk wins $10b+ settlement against altman\u002Fopenai? prediction","elon musk wins $10b+ settlement against altman\u002Fopenai? odds","elon musk wins $10b+ settlement against altman\u002Fopenai? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:29:24.942Z","2026-05-30T10:43:10.537Z",0,[44,57,69],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":26},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[11,15,49,50,13,14],"GPT-5","Grok",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-05-30T10:34:07.757Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",1313459.0318739992,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":54,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":26},"117916","Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",[11,14,62,63,50],"Business","DeepSeek",10.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.527Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.799Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.\n",118988.89591899999,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":26},"376503","Which company has the third best AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,15,14,74],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",97.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.898Z","2026-05-30T10:31:30.911Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",54539.83879999998,1780676630099]