[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-ecb-interest-rates-july-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"434804","ecb-interest-rates-july-2026","ECB Interest Rates: July 2026","This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ecb.europa.eu\u002Fpress\u002Fcalendars\u002Fmgcgc\u002Fhtml\u002Findex.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.","ECB Interest Rates: July 2026 is a prediction market on the European Central Bank’s July 22–23, 2026 meeting and the resulting change in the deposit facility rate. The market resolves based on the official ECB statement or release, using the rate change versus the level before the meeting. Traders are forecasting whether the ECB will raise, cut, or leave rates unchanged, with the outcome rounded to the market’s stated 25-basis-point brackets when needed. This event matters because ECB policy is a key driver of inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader European financial conditions. It also serves as a real-time economic forecast for Europe and global rates markets. Current market probability is about 10% for the listed outcome, indicating relatively low odds at the moment, though that can shift as the meeting approaches and new data influences market sentiment. The market opened on April 30, 2026 and remains active until the ECB’s July 2026 decision is announced or the end date is reached. As a prediction market in the Economy category, it is closely watched by traders tracking ECB interest rates, Europe, and global rates expectations.","ECONOMY","Economy",[11,13,14,15],"European Central Bank","Europe","Global Rates","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fecb-interest-rates-april-2025-DJ5nB6uaqtx5.png",0.1,21186.42,116226.41945,85328.77386,23252.610158999996,62526.890607,true,false,"2026-04-30T18:32:58.591Z","2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-30T15:21:50.266Z","2026-06-16T10:02:16.411Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fecb-interest-rates-july-2026?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"ecb interest rates: july 2026","ecb interest rates: july 2026 prediction","ecb interest rates: july 2026 odds","ecb interest rates: july 2026 probability","economy prediction market","economic forecast","economic probability","2026-06-16T10:13:28.743Z","2026-06-16T10:08:03.180Z",0,[42,61,76],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":24},"432180","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31",[11,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54],"close","Iran","U.S. x Iran","Oil","Strait of Hormuz","Hormuz","Geopolitics","Trump",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.280Z","2026-05-30T10:37:07.745Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe number of daily transit calls\u002Farrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",952303.4898229997,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":65,"probability":70,"createdAt":71,"updatedAt":72,"resolutionDate":73,"description":74,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":24},"488818","2nd largest company end of June?","2nd-largest-company-end-of-june-849",[11,66,67,68,69],"Tech","Business","Finance","Big Tech",2.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.064Z","2026-06-16T10:01:54.397Z","2026-06-30T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",140536.35310500002,{"id":77,"title":78,"slug":79,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":80,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":24},"79041","Largest Company end of December 2026?","largest-company-end-of-december-2026",[11,67,68,81,66,69],"AI",0.8,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.329Z","2026-06-16T10:01:55.936Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",108658.757215,1781606240412]