[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"79230","china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027","China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether China and Taiwan will enter a direct military encounter between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if there is use of force between the military forces of the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other direct military engagement. It excludes non-violent actions and warning shots, and it treats the China Coast Guard as part of the military while excluding Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration. This forecast matters because any escalation across the Taiwan Strait would have major implications for foreign policy, regional security, and global markets. Current market probability is about 7.5%, suggesting traders see a clash as possible but still unlikely. As a prediction market, it reflects evolving market sentiment and the odds of a defined event rather than a certainty. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.","GEOPOLITICS","World",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Taiwan","Foreign Policy","China","Geopolitics","HFC","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fchina-x-taiwan-military-clash-by-bruNN8Tgoil0.jpg",7.5,3427.482501,15149.147412999999,36744.0095,469753.697654,13607.287374399999,true,false,"2025-11-13T23:20:40.905Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-11T22:55:50.042Z","2026-05-30T10:37:01.550Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fchina-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"china x taiwan military clash before 2027?","china x taiwan military clash before 2027? prediction","china x taiwan military clash before 2027? odds","china x taiwan military clash before 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:38:48.536Z","2026-05-30T10:43:19.592Z",0,[44,58,69],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":53,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":28,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":26},"34051","Netanyahu out by...?","netanyahu-out-before-2027",[11,16,49,50,51,52],"Middle East","Israel","Politics","Earn 4%",53.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.232Z","2026-05-30T10:34:01.136Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from\u002Fis removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of if\u002Fwhen he actually steps down.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",470688.30231599987,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":66,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":26},"107726","Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",[11,15,16,51],0.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:49.544Z","2026-05-30T10:37:57.200Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",407490.007161001,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":42,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":66,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":26},"72352","Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?","will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",[11,74,16,51,75,76,77,78,79,80],"Kupyansk","putin","Military Actions","Russia Capture","Ukraine Map","Ukraine","Russia","2026-05-30T10:42:53.083Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.239Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fh-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FKupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",166930.00940800007,1780676612220]