[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":79},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"79231","china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027","China x Philippines military clash before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","China x Philippines military clash before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a direct military encounter will occur between the armed forces of China and the Philippines during the market window from November 11, 2025, through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is narrowly defined: a “Yes” requires credible reporting of forceful military engagement such as missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire, or other direct clashes. The market also counts serious ship-ramming incidents involving military vessels, while non-violent actions and minor damage do not qualify. In this event prediction, the China Coast Guard is treated as part of the military, but the Philippine Coast Guard is not. As a prediction market tied to China and broader World geopolitics, it reflects trader expectations on tensions in the South China Sea and the risk of escalation between Beijing and Manila. Current market probability is about 24.5%, indicating traders assign a minority chance to a clash before the deadline. Resolution will depend on a consensus of credible reporting, making this a closely watched geopolitical forecast through the end of 2026.","GEOPOLITICS","China",[11,13,14],"World","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fchina-x-philippines-military-clash-by-snG6EYjptORn.jpg",24.5,13850.183658000002,82017.76154799998,66821.1614,322493.329728,44894.652573399995,true,false,"2025-11-13T23:20:43.153Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-11T22:59:21.008Z","2026-05-30T10:37:40.652Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fchina-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"china x philippines military clash before 2027?","china x philippines military clash before 2027? prediction","china x philippines military clash before 2027? odds","china x philippines military clash before 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:16:17.406Z","2026-05-30T10:42:58.244Z",0,[41,53,64],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":48,"createdAt":49,"updatedAt":50,"resolutionDate":25,"description":51,"summary":51,"volume1wk":52,"featured":23},"208023","Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?","will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027",[11,46,14,47],"Trump","Politics",88,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.138Z","2026-05-30T10:31:06.847Z","If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",59006.658185999986,{"id":54,"title":55,"slug":56,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":57,"probability":58,"createdAt":59,"updatedAt":60,"resolutionDate":61,"description":62,"summary":62,"volume1wk":63,"featured":23},"281145","Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027",[11,47,13,14],15.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.634Z","2026-05-30T10:31:59.384Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",22309.890246,{"id":65,"title":66,"slug":67,"category":10,"subcategory":68,"tags":69,"probability":39,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":25,"description":77,"summary":77,"volume1wk":78,"featured":22},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[68,46,70,71,72,73,74,14,47],"ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,1780676632429]