[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"83798","china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027","China x Japan military clash before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"China x Japan military clash before 2027?\" is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether a direct military encounter will occur between the armed forces of China and Japan during the market’s resolution window, from November 17, 2025 through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on incidents involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchanges of gunfire, or other direct military engagements. The market rules also clarify that the China Coast Guard counts as part of the military, while the Japan Coast Guard does not.\n\nThis event matters because any escalation between two major East Asian powers would have significant implications for regional security, maritime disputes, and broader geopolitical risk. Prediction market traders are effectively pricing the odds of a military clash, with current market probability at about 9.5%, suggesting a low but non-trivial chance of escalation. Resolution will depend on a consensus of credible reporting, making this an event prediction tied closely to verified news coverage and military developments through the end of 2026.","GEOPOLITICS","Japan",[11,13,14,15,16],"China","World","Geopolitics","HFC","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fchina-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027-S3WQfSEVZxJ8.jpg",9.5,355.353511,15697.633424999996,31591.4734,288910.673051,11205.261462999999,true,false,"2025-11-18T15:50:30.225Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-17T18:30:48.840Z","2026-06-16T10:01:38.261Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fchina-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"china x japan military clash before 2027?","china x japan military clash before 2027? prediction","china x japan military clash before 2027? odds","china x japan military clash before 2027? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:28:59.991Z","2026-06-16T10:08:26.803Z",0,[43,61,72],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":47,"tags":48,"probability":41,"createdAt":57,"updatedAt":58,"resolutionDate":27,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":24},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[47,49,50,51,52,53,54,15,55,56],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Politics","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":47,"tags":65,"probability":66,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":24},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[47,55,51,15],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":55,"tags":76,"probability":41,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":69,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":24},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[55,15,51,47,54,56],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-06-16T10:06:05.405Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n \n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ",16205133.21684103,1781606249381]