[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":87},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"390159","china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026","China GDP growth (Y\u002FY) in Q2 2026?","This market will resolve according to China's Y\u002FY Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the \"Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP\" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.stats.gov.cn\u002Fenglish\u002FPressRelease\u002F\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.\n\nNote: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.\n\nFor the full release schedule, see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.stats.gov.cn\u002Fenglish\u002FPressRelease\u002FReleaseCalendar\u002F202512\u002Ft20251226_1962154.html","China GDP growth (Y\u002FY) in Q2 2026? is a prediction market on China’s year-over-year Gross Domestic Product growth rate for the second quarter of 2026. The event will resolve from the National Bureau of Statistics of China’s “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP” release, scheduled for July 16, 2026, with the initial reported figure used for resolution. Traders are forecasting the country’s macroeconomic momentum, making this a closely watched economy and macro indicators event prediction for analysts tracking Chinese growth, policy conditions, and broader global market sentiment. The market is not pricing in a sharp move at this stage: current probability is 2.15%, indicating traders see a relatively low chance of a very specific outcome under the market’s bracketed resolution rules. If the reported GDP growth figure falls exactly between two brackets, the higher range bracket will apply. If the Q2 2026 data is not released on time, the market will resolve using the last available quarter once the next quarter’s data is due. As with other economic forecast markets, the outcome depends entirely on the official government release, not later revisions.","ECONOMY","Macro Indicators",[11,13,14,15,16],"China","Economy","GDP","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-china-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-negative-mpYbadqFFIsm.jpg",2.15,3555.314266,19158.012696,42255.13201,10631.943242000001,15976.087343800002,true,false,"2026-04-20T21:37:38.344Z","2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-17T23:07:34.565Z","2026-06-16T10:02:30.414Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fchina-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"china gdp growth (y\u002Fy) in q2 2026?","china gdp growth (y\u002Fy) in q2 2026? prediction","china gdp growth (y\u002Fy) in q2 2026? odds","china gdp growth (y\u002Fy) in q2 2026? probability","economy prediction market","economic forecast","economic probability","2026-06-16T10:26:10.079Z","2026-06-16T10:08:23.148Z",0,[43,56,74],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":25},"580294","June Inflation US - Annual","june-inflation-us-annual-20260610151727862",[11,48,14,49],"CPI","Inflation",1.2,"2026-06-16T10:07:59.953Z","2026-06-16T10:02:13.430Z","2026-07-15T03:59:00.000Z","This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fbls\u002Fnews-release\u002Fcpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fschedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.",207368.61653700002,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":60,"tags":61,"probability":68,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":25},"524097","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15","transit",[60,62,63,14,64,65,66,67],"Iran","Oil","Geopolitics","ships","Strait of Hormuz","Hormuz",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.055Z","2026-06-16T10:01:37.704Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",6251167.383993982,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":66,"tags":78,"probability":81,"createdAt":82,"updatedAt":83,"resolutionDate":84,"description":85,"summary":85,"volume1wk":86,"featured":25},"455867","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",[66,14,79,80,65,62,63,64],"Iran Ceasefire","Politics",60.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.752Z","2026-06-16T10:07:32.502Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",2661137.388396002,1781606240391]