[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":80},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"138745","chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? is a technology prediction market centered on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, where traders are forecasting whether at least one model will hit the specified Arena Score by the end of 2026. The market resolves using the \"Score\" section of the Text Arena leaderboard on lmarena.ai, with the style control unchecked, making the outcome tied to a specific public benchmark for AI model performance. This matters because Chatbot Arena is widely watched as a comparative measure of model quality, and a new score threshold can signal rapid progress in large language model development. The market is active from January 2, 2026 through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, giving participants a clear deadline for the event prediction. Current market probability is listed at 100%, indicating strong market sentiment that the threshold will be reached, though that expectation is not guaranteed. As a tech and AI forecast, the event reflects ongoing interest in Big Tech, Google, and the broader race to improve chatbot and LLM capabilities.","TECH","Tech",[11,13,14,15],"Big Tech","google","AI","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg",100,583.11,30091.207294000003,15258.3927,17413.243937,12370.595728200002,true,false,"2026-01-02T18:31:12.665Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-02T14:25:27.759Z","2026-05-30T10:31:51.913Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fchatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"will any ai model reach ___ overall arena score by december 31?","will any ai model reach ___ overall arena score by december 31? prediction","will any ai model reach ___ overall arena score by december 31? odds","will any ai model reach ___ overall arena score by december 31? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:27:45.113Z","2026-05-30T10:43:08.919Z",0,[42,56,68],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":24},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[11,13,47,48,49,15],"GPT-5","Grok","OpenAI",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-05-30T10:34:07.757Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",1313459.0318739992,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":53,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":24},"117916","Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",[11,15,61,62,48],"Business","DeepSeek",10.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.527Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.799Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.\n",118988.89591899999,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":74,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":77,"description":78,"summary":78,"volume1wk":79,"featured":24},"376503","Which company has the third best AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,13,15,73],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",97.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.898Z","2026-05-30T10:31:30.911Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",54539.83879999998,1780676630135]