[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-california-governor-primary-election-first-place":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"382767","california-governor-primary-election-first-place","California Governor Primary Election: First Place","The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.","California Governor Primary Election: First Place is a political prediction market focused on who will receive the most valid votes in California’s non-partisan gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026. The market tracks the expected outcome for the first-place finisher, which is important because the top two candidates advance to the general election for Governor of California. If two candidates are tied on valid votes, the market resolves by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names, and if the result is still unclear, it would default to Other after December 31, 2026. Current market probability stands at 64.5%, indicating traders see a moderately strong chance for the leading candidate to finish first, though the forecast remains subject to election results. Resolution will rely on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the California Secretary of State. This event sits at the intersection of politics, primaries, and elections, making it relevant for election watchers following California governor odds, political forecast signals, and prediction market sentiment ahead of the primary.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16],"Primaries","Elections","California Governor","June 2 Primaries","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fcalifornia-governor-election-2026-4b5HcLPNupez.png",64.5,15660.062989,74516.03623100002,335976.5881,21480.292246,97380.15998380001,true,false,"2026-04-16T14:57:19.673Z","2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-15T18:46:28.516Z","2026-05-30T10:33:03.954Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fcalifornia-governor-primary-election-first-place?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"california governor primary election: first place","california governor primary election: first place prediction","california governor primary election: first place odds","california governor primary election: first place probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:17:13.918Z","2026-05-30T10:42:59.158Z",0,[43,59,72],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":53,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":24},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,48,14,49,50,51,13,52],"US Election","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":41,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":24},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,64,65,66],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":76,"probability":41,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":24},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,77,66,78,79,65,64],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676604871]