[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"64726","billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot","Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCertification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. ","“Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?” is a prediction market in the Elections category tracking whether California will certify a statewide ballot initiative for the November 3, 2026 election that would impose a one-time tax on individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion. The market resolves to Yes only if the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State and appears on the ballot by the June 25, 2026 cutoff for new initiatives. Otherwise, it resolves to No.\n\nThis event matters because it tests both California’s ballot-access process and the political prospects for a high-profile tax proposal aimed at the ultra-wealthy. Traders in the prediction market are forecasting the odds of certification rather than the tax policy itself, making the outcome a narrow event prediction tied to election administration and state politics. As of the latest update, market probability sits near 29.5%, suggesting sentiment leans toward No, though the forecast can shift as the deadline approaches. The listing is relevant to election watchers, tax policy observers, and anyone tracking California ballot measures and election odds.","ELECTIONS","Elections",[11,13,14],"Politics","Taxes","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fbillionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot-Cu7EZFeYeO2R.jpg",29.5,2386.058396000002,21305.018399000048,22756.5619,35155.630814,12135.847097700014,true,false,"2025-10-24T19:56:10.909Z","2026-06-25T00:00:00.000Z","2025-10-24T17:28:29.129Z","2026-06-16T10:02:19.967Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fbillionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"billionaire one-time wealth tax on california ballot?","billionaire one-time wealth tax on california ballot? prediction","billionaire one-time wealth tax on california ballot? odds","billionaire one-time wealth tax on california ballot? probability","election prediction market","election forecast","election odds","2026-06-16T10:24:45.212Z","2026-06-16T10:08:21.320Z",0,[41,57,70],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":23},"79987","Next French Presidential Election","next-french-presidential-election",[11,46,47,48,13,49,50],"Global Elections","World","France","French Election","Main Election",7.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.243Z","2026-06-16T10:04:47.789Z","2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.interieur.gouv.fr\u002F).",5849720.156036999,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":23},"574717","Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)","peru-election-2nd-round-margin-of-victory-0pt1-brackets-20260609021541549",[11,62,46,63,13],"Peru Election","Peru",0.05,"2026-06-16T10:07:53.136Z","2026-06-16T10:04:00.168Z",null,"The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.onpe.gob.pe\u002Felecciones\u002F) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https:\u002F\u002Fportal.jne.gob.pe\u002Fportal\u002F)\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",1651491.1064829992,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":23},"452754","2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election Winner","2026-gyeongsangnam-province-gubernatorial-election-winner",[11,47,13,46,75,50,76],"South Korea","World Elections",63,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.466Z","2026-05-30T10:32:42.319Z","2026-06-03T06:00:00.000Z","The 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Gyeongsangnam Province.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.",138389.29990999997,1781606235752]