[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-balance-of-power-2026-midterms":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":21,"probability":22,"volume24hr":23,"volume1wk":24,"liquidity":25,"openInterest":26,"trendScore":27,"active":28,"closed":29,"featured":29,"startDate":30,"endDate":31,"createdAtRemote":32,"updatedAtRemote":33,"affiliateUrl":34,"polymarketUrl":34,"searchKeywords":35,"syncedAt":43,"createdAt":44,"marketCount":45},"32228","balance-of-power-2026-midterms","Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms","This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.\n\nA candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nIf control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. \n\nIf control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n","Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms is a political prediction market tracking which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate after the 2026 United States midterm elections. The outcome matters because congressional control determines the balance of power in Washington and shapes the legislative agenda heading into the second half of the presidential term. In this event prediction, the market resolves based on whether Democrats or Republicans win a majority in the House and whether either party secures control of the Senate, using the resolution rules tied to AP, Fox News, NBC, and, if needed, official certification. The forecast runs through the 2026 midterm election cycle, with the market currently set to resolve after results are finalized by the end date of November 3, 2026. Current market probability stands at 45.5%, giving traders a real-time read on market sentiment and the expected outcome. For search engines, this event is closely tied to U.S. elections, midterms, congressional control, political odds, and election forecasting.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20],"US Election","Elections","Global Elections","Midterms","Earn 4%","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","United States","Main Election","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fbalance-of-power-2024-election-r-Fp-y4ONJBS.jpg",45.5,30228.614290000005,249857.144516,808085.1699,1227427.4478840001,251688.48447979998,true,false,"2025-07-11T21:15:44.724Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","2025-07-11T20:47:52.389Z","2026-05-30T10:33:45.769Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fbalance-of-power-2026-midterms?r=predstack",[36,37,38,39,40,41,42],"balance of power: 2026 midterms","balance of power: 2026 midterms prediction","balance of power: 2026 midterms odds","balance of power: 2026 midterms probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:08:47.232Z","2026-05-30T10:42:51.171Z",0,[47,60,73],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":51,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":28},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,13,14,52,15,17,53,19],"World Elections","Primaries",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":64,"probability":45,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":28},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,65,66,67],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":77,"probability":45,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":28},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,78,67,79,80,66,65],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676603409]