[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by":3},{"event":4,"related":48},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":24,"probability":25,"volume24hr":26,"volume1wk":27,"liquidity":28,"openInterest":29,"trendScore":30,"active":31,"closed":32,"featured":32,"startDate":33,"endDate":34,"createdAtRemote":35,"updatedAtRemote":36,"affiliateUrl":37,"polymarketUrl":37,"searchKeywords":38,"syncedAt":46,"createdAt":47,"marketCount":25},"276527","bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will fall to levels consistent with an effective closure. The market resolves “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals for the strait at 10 or fewer on any date from market creation through the listed deadline, using the IMF PortWatch “Arrivals of Ships” data as the resolution source. The forecast focuses on a key maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the wider shipping routes affected by Houthi activity, regional spillover, and broader Middle East risk, including implications for oil transport and vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This makes the event important for traders watching geopolitics, shipping disruption, and Red Sea traffic conditions. The market runs through April 30, 2026, with resolution possible earlier if the qualifying data appears before then. Current market probability is not provided, so market sentiment and odds must be inferred from trading activity rather than an explicit forecast. As a prediction market, it reflects expectations about whether shipping flows through this strategic strait will deteriorate enough to meet the closure threshold.","GEOPOLITICS","houthi",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23],"traffic","Oil","Geopolitics","Iran","Strait of Hormuz","shipping","Politics","cape of good hope","Regional Spillover","red sea","Houthis","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fbab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",0,33643.94315,233585.198869,108401.37556,358306.095996,108577.80634770001,true,false,"2026-03-16T18:44:59.488Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-16T15:59:28.809Z","2026-05-30T10:37:00.490Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fbab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by?r=predstack",[39,40,41,42,43,44,45],"bab el-mandeb strait effectively closed by...?","bab el-mandeb strait effectively closed by...? prediction","bab el-mandeb strait effectively closed by...? odds","bab el-mandeb strait effectively closed by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:09:16.047Z","2026-05-30T10:42:51.676Z",[49,65,76],{"id":50,"title":51,"slug":52,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":53,"probability":25,"createdAt":60,"updatedAt":61,"resolutionDate":62,"description":63,"summary":63,"volume1wk":64,"featured":31},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[16,54,55,56,57,58,59,15,19],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":66,"title":67,"slug":68,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":69,"probability":70,"createdAt":71,"updatedAt":72,"resolutionDate":73,"description":74,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":31},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[16,19,56,15],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":77,"title":78,"slug":79,"category":10,"subcategory":19,"tags":80,"probability":25,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":73,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":31},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[19,15,56,16,59],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-05-30T10:38:09.490Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n\n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ",8902186.761979992,1780676608966]