[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-may":3},{"event":4,"related":47},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":22,"probability":23,"volume24hr":24,"volume1wk":25,"liquidity":26,"openInterest":27,"trendScore":28,"active":29,"closed":30,"featured":30,"startDate":31,"endDate":32,"createdAtRemote":33,"updatedAtRemote":34,"affiliateUrl":35,"polymarketUrl":35,"searchKeywords":36,"syncedAt":44,"createdAt":45,"marketCount":46},"432225","avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-may","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?","This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on the 7-day moving average of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for May 31, 2026, using IMF Portwatch data. The market forecast is not about a single ship crossing, but about the average level of traffic reported for container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. That makes the event relevant to traders watching Iran, U.S.-Iran tensions, Hormuz shipping traffic, and broader oil-linked maritime risk. The market will resolve when IMF Portwatch publishes the first qualifying May 31 data, with a fallback to the most recent prior date if no data is available by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the reported figure falls exactly between two brackets, the higher range resolves the market. Current market probability is around 7%, indicating a low expected outcome and cautious market sentiment. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about end-of-month shipping activity in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints.","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21],"traffic","Oil","Hormuz","Hormoz","Geopolitics","tanker","U.S. x Iran","Strait of Hormuz","Rewards 300 4.5 50","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",7,14989.902858,219675.78330799998,128398.61384,92251.62616500001,99077.40918939999,true,false,"2026-04-30T19:23:16.800Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-29T21:04:41.391Z","2026-05-30T10:33:53.295Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Favg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-may?r=predstack",[37,38,39,40,41,42,43],"avg. # of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of may?","avg. # of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of may? prediction","avg. # of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of may? odds","avg. # of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of may? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:09:37.813Z","2026-05-30T10:42:52.079Z",0,[48,64,75],{"id":49,"title":50,"slug":51,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":52,"probability":46,"createdAt":59,"updatedAt":60,"resolutionDate":61,"description":62,"summary":62,"volume1wk":63,"featured":29},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,53,54,55,56,57,19,17,58],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","Politics","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":65,"title":66,"slug":67,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":68,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":72,"description":73,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":29},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[11,58,55,17],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":79,"probability":84,"createdAt":85,"updatedAt":86,"resolutionDate":32,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":29},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[11,80,81,55,53,20,82,17,58,19,83],"Sanctions","toll","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",3880525.7414259994,1780676606000]