[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-june":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"542904","avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-june","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?","This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks traders to forecast the finalized 7-day moving average of ship transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz on June 30, 2026, using IMF Portwatch data. The event focuses on the average number of Arrivals of Ships reported for the strait, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. Because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil shipping route, the outcome is closely watched for signals about regional shipping conditions, Iran-related tensions, and broader energy-market risk. The market will resolve once the relevant IMF Portwatch figure is finalized, with special rules if data is delayed or revised. If the reported value falls between two brackets, resolution goes to the higher range. Current market probability is about 39%, indicating traders see a moderate chance of the expected outcome. The active forecast period runs through the end of June, making this an event prediction tied to maritime traffic, oil geopolitics, and market sentiment around one of the world’s most important chokepoints.","GEOPOLITICS","Oil",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Iran","Hormuz","Geopolitics","Strait of Hormuz","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",39,2859.042082,36700.57865,61609.12475,17636.548147,24761.519586000002,true,false,"2026-06-01T00:45:10.807Z","2026-06-30T16:00:00.000Z","2026-05-30T23:43:57.688Z","2026-06-16T10:02:30.577Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Favg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-june?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"avg. # of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of june?","avg. # of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of june? prediction","avg. # of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of june? odds","avg. # of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of june? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:19:51.614Z","2026-06-16T10:08:13.512Z",0,[44,55,68],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":28,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":26},"548813","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",[11,13,49,14,15,16],"Trump",23,"2026-06-16T10:07:57.882Z","2026-06-16T10:01:39.417Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",342215.2553979999,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":62,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":65,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":26},"452977","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?","which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31",[11,16,13,15,60,61],"Naval","U.S. x Iran",1,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.304Z","2026-05-30T10:37:34.769Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",244008.35100300002,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":26},"562974","How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-june-8",[11,13,73,15,14,74,16],"tanker","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20",2.05,"2026-06-16T10:08:09.686Z","2026-06-16T10:06:51.689Z","2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",50816.630097000016,1781606254866]