[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"191747","anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30","Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https:\u002F\u002Fscale.com\u002Fleaderboard\u002Fhumanitys_last_exam.","Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30? is a technology prediction market focused on whether an Anthropic Claude model will appear on the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard with a score at or above the specified threshold by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on Anthropic’s Claude 5 models and their performance on a benchmark used to compare advanced AI systems. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome of whether Claude will reach the required score before the deadline, as verified by the Scale-hosted leaderboard. The market matters because benchmark results can influence market sentiment around AI capability, competitive positioning among big tech and AI developers, and broader expectations for model progress. The current market probability is shown at 100%, though prediction market odds can still reflect how traders interpret the resolution criteria and timing. As a tech forecast with a fixed end date, the event prediction is ultimately determined by the official leaderboard listing on or before the June 30 cutoff.","TECH","Claude 5",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Business","Claude","Tech","Big Tech","AI","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fanthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-march-31-hxpNop_nNE95.png",100,3093.056571,28533.552129000003,10774.5348,13670.878997000002,12261.5008842,true,false,"2026-01-30T05:03:29.185Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-28T16:17:17.827Z","2026-05-30T10:32:20.593Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fanthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"claude score on humanity’s last exam by june 30?","claude score on humanity’s last exam by june 30? prediction","claude score on humanity’s last exam by june 30? odds","claude score on humanity’s last exam by june 30? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:28:14.968Z","2026-05-30T10:43:09.396Z",0,[44,55,68],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":19,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":28,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":26},"191768","Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?","anthropic-claude-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30",[11,15,16,14,17,49,50],"anthropic","Math","2026-05-30T10:43:03.207Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.335Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Fepoch.ai\u002Ffrontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002FEpochAIResearch\u002Fstatus\u002F1945905796904005720) will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",49544.100994,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":17,"tags":59,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":28,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":25},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712",[17,15,16,60,61,13,62],"Economy","DeepSeek","Finance",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.619Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2205699.1277590003,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":62,"tags":72,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":25},"500775","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[62,73,74,15,16,17,75,76,77,78],"Privates","llm","chatgpt","sam altman","OpenAI","OpenAI IPO",6.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.965Z","2026-05-30T10:34:16.260Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. \n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.",98053.93702400001,1780676629837]