[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-anthropic-claude-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"191768","anthropic-claude-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30","Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Fepoch.ai\u002Ffrontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002FEpochAIResearch\u002Fstatus\u002F1945905796904005720) will not be considered.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30? is a technology prediction market asking whether any Anthropic Claude model will reach the listed score or higher on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath benchmarking leaderboard by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is tied specifically to Tier 1-3 results on the official Frontier Math leaderboard, with the market resolving “Yes” only if the benchmark score appears there; other studies or unofficial reports will not count. This makes the event a focused test of Claude’s math and reasoning performance, and a useful signal for market sentiment around AI model progress from Anthropic in the broader Big Tech and AI categories. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome based on the probability of Claude meeting the threshold before the deadline. Current market probability is shown at 100%, indicating very strong confidence, though that remains a market estimate rather than a guarantee. The event is active and runs through the June 30, 2026 expiration date.","TECH","Claude 5",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Tech","Big Tech","Claude","AI","anthropic","Math","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fanthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-march-31-hxpNop_nNE95.png",100,1157.59,49544.100994,411.2317,5403.471603999999,15524.2716382,true,false,"2026-01-30T05:03:31.298Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-28T16:41:42.048Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.335Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fanthropic-claude-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"anthropic claude score on frontiermath benchmark by june 30?","anthropic claude score on frontiermath benchmark by june 30? prediction","anthropic claude score on frontiermath benchmark by june 30? odds","anthropic claude score on frontiermath benchmark by june 30? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:21:35.878Z","2026-05-30T10:43:03.207Z",0,[45,55,68],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":20,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":29,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":27},"191747","Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?","anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30",[11,50,15,13,14,16],"Business","2026-05-30T10:43:09.396Z","2026-05-30T10:32:20.593Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https:\u002F\u002Fscale.com\u002Fleaderboard\u002Fhumanitys_last_exam.",28533.552129000003,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":59,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":29,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":26},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712",[16,13,14,60,61,50,62],"Economy","DeepSeek","Finance",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.619Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2205699.1277590003,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":62,"tags":72,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":26},"500775","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[62,73,74,13,14,16,75,76,77,78],"Privates","llm","chatgpt","sam altman","OpenAI","OpenAI IPO",6.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.965Z","2026-05-30T10:34:16.260Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. \n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.",98053.93702400001,1780676630381]