[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"140711","another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by","Another US strike on Venezuela by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.\n \nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date\u002Ftime of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","“Another US strike on Venezuela by...?” is a politics prediction market asking whether a new US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil will be announced or credibly reported before the market deadline. The forecast focuses on whether a qualifying strike physically impacts territory inside Venezuela, including inland waters and ports, but excluding the territorial sea. It does not count intercepted weapons, surface-to-air missile activity, artillery, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks the risk of direct US-Venezuela military escalation and broader geopolitical tensions in the region. Traders in the prediction market are effectively pricing the odds of a confirmed strike based on credible reporting and official claims from the US government or Donald Trump during the timeframe.\n\nThe market opens on January 3, 2026 and is scheduled to resolve by January 31, 2026, with a two-day confirmation window after the resolution time. Current market probability is listed at 0%, indicating very low expected outcome odds at the time of the latest data, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as new reports emerge.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15],"Geopolitics","Venezuela","World","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fus-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by-october-31-vTvJcKGlVvkm.jpg",0,1.13,539150.7995799999,11066.1625,13085.722041,163959.03737399998,true,false,"2026-01-03T16:26:10.785Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-03T12:31:01.075Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.186Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fanother-us-strike-on-venezuela-by?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"another us strike on venezuela by...?","another us strike on venezuela by...? prediction","another us strike on venezuela by...? odds","another us strike on venezuela by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:06:06.098Z","2026-05-30T10:42:48.653Z",[41,59,71],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":53,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,46,47,48,49,50,51,52],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":17,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,13,64,65],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":17,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":81,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":23},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,76,65,77,78,64,13],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676611796]