[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-ai-bubble-burst-by":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"85299","ai-bubble-burst-by","AI bubble burst by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:\n- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.\n- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.\n- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.\n- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.silicondata.com\u002Fproducts\u002Fsilicon-index.\n- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.\n\nThis market will not resolve to \"Yes\" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","“AI bubble burst by...?” is a technology prediction market that asks whether the AI industry will experience a clear downturn by the market’s deadline on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is not based on a vague sentiment call: it resolves to Yes only if at least three specified market stress signals occur within 90 days of the timeframe. Those signals include NVIDIA (NVDA) falling 50% from its all-time high, SOXX dropping 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI being acquired, H100 rental prices falling to $1.00 or lower for five straight days, or major AI infrastructure suppliers such as TSM, ASML, AVGO, ANET, or SMCI declining 50% from peak levels.\n\nThis event matters because it ties the broader AI bubble narrative to measurable outcomes across Big Tech, semiconductors, and AI hardware suppliers. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about whether the sector can sustain current growth and valuation trends. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced-in expectation of a qualifying AI industry downturn at this time, though odds can change quickly as market sentiment shifts.","TECH","Business",[11,13,14,15],"Tech","Finance","Big Tech","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fai-industry-downturn-by-fFNK9rGi-70Y.jpg",0,1784.762764,34428.787527,13419.56853,95355.42068699999,13904.931346099998,true,false,"2025-11-20T00:32:22.146Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-19T14:24:47.154Z","2026-05-30T10:30:43.585Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fai-bubble-burst-by?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"ai bubble burst by...?","ai bubble burst by...? prediction","ai bubble burst by...? odds","ai bubble burst by...? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:25:46.179Z","2026-05-30T10:43:07.036Z",[41,55,72],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":45,"tags":46,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":23},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712","AI",[45,13,15,47,48,11,14],"Economy","DeepSeek",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.619Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2205699.1277590003,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":59,"probability":66,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":23},"500775","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[14,60,61,13,15,45,62,63,64,65],"Privates","llm","chatgpt","sam altman","OpenAI","OpenAI IPO",6.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.965Z","2026-05-30T10:34:16.260Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. \n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.",98053.93702400001,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":76,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":52,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":24},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[13,15,77,78,64,45],"GPT-5","Grok",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-05-30T10:34:07.757Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",1313459.0318739992,1780676629844]