[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-aca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":22},"101101","aca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026","ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?","This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fenhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows: \n\n1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?\nAffordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.\n\nThis market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nA qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and\u002For lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.\n\nA bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.\n\nIf the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.\n\nThe primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.\n\n","ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? is a political prediction market that combines two related forecasts: whether enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits will be extended in 2025, and which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms. The first part resolves if a qualifying federal bill extending the enhanced ACA subsidies is signed into law by December 31, 2025, while the second part resolves based on the outcome of the November 3, 2026 House election and, if needed, the eventual Speaker selection. Together, the event links healthcare policy and congressional control, making it relevant to traders tracking U.S. elections, Congress, and midterm market sentiment. Current market probability is about 82%, suggesting traders see the combined outcome as relatively likely, though not certain. The forecast reflects both legislative action in 2025 and the expected outcome of the 2026 House race, with resolution relying on official U.S. government sources and credible reporting where needed.","POLITICS","Midterms",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"Congress","US Election","Elections","Global Elections","Politics","Trump","United States","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwhich-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026-lO2ezdY5lP2i.png",82,0,50533.490772,46417.4632,11312.147774000001,24443.539871599998,true,false,"2025-12-09T18:55:51.035Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","2025-12-09T17:54:26.777Z","2026-05-30T10:30:29.786Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Faca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"aca credits extended & house winner 2026?","aca credits extended & house winner 2026? prediction","aca credits extended & house winner 2026? odds","aca credits extended & house winner 2026? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:21:17.798Z","2026-05-30T10:43:02.897Z",[45,56,70],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":30,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":28},"101106","Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?","another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026",[11,16,14,50,13,17,15,19],"Gov Shutdown",81,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.673Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.186Z","This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwill-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fwhich-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).\n\nThe rules and resolution criteria are as follows:\n\n1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?\nThis market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nPartial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.opm.gov\u002Fpolicy-data-oversight\u002Fsnow-dismissal-procedures\u002Fcurrent-status\u002F).\n\n2. Which party will win the House in 2026?\nThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.",156134.572114,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":17,"tags":60,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":27},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[17,14,15,61,16,62,63,19],"World Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":17,"tags":74,"probability":22,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":27},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[17,75,76,77],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1780676643131]