[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224":3},{"event":4,"related":47},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":22,"probability":23,"volume24hr":24,"volume1wk":25,"liquidity":26,"openInterest":27,"trendScore":28,"active":29,"closed":30,"featured":30,"startDate":31,"endDate":32,"createdAtRemote":33,"updatedAtRemote":34,"affiliateUrl":35,"polymarketUrl":35,"searchKeywords":36,"syncedAt":44,"createdAt":45,"marketCount":46},"215753","2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224","2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory","This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.\n\nIf the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https:\u002F\u002Fhistory.house.gov\u002FInstitution\u002FElection-Statistics\u002F). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.","2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory is a prediction market on the margin between the Democratic Party and Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections. The forecast measures the absolute difference in each party’s share of valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates, based on the official results published by the US Clerk of the House. Delegates and the Resident Commissioner are excluded from the calculation.\n\nThe event is tied to the November 3, 2026 election date, with the market remaining open until the result is resolved from the Clerk’s published vote totals, including any recounts noted in that record. If the midterms are not held by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other.\n\nCurrent market probability is 2.05%, reflecting trader expectations that the final House popular vote margin will fall within the listed outcome range. As an election forecast, the market is a useful signal of market sentiment on the broader US election and congressional landscape, including Democratic and Republican performance in the House of Representatives.","ELECTIONS","democrats",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21],"Midterms","Politics","mov","republicans","Congress","Elections","house of representatives","US Election","rewards 200, 4.5, 20 Deprec","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002F2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-TxFB8_VHphoq.png",2.05,3963.9086579999994,32220.789273000002,380885.41078,11118.655014,87825.27326690001,true,false,"2026-02-19T00:29:31.097Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","2026-02-19T00:14:47.355Z","2026-06-16T10:02:34.238Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002F2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224?r=predstack",[37,38,39,40,41,42,43],"2026 midterms: house popular vote margin of victory","2026 midterms: house popular vote margin of victory prediction","2026 midterms: house popular vote margin of victory odds","2026 midterms: house popular vote margin of victory probability","election prediction market","election forecast","election odds","2026-06-16T10:20:38.980Z","2026-06-16T10:08:15.049Z",0,[48,64,78],{"id":49,"title":50,"slug":51,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":52,"probability":58,"createdAt":59,"updatedAt":60,"resolutionDate":61,"description":62,"summary":62,"volume1wk":63,"featured":29},"106520","Peru Presidential Election Winner","peru-presidential-election-winner",[14,53,54,18,55,56,57],"Global Elections","World Elections","Peru","Peru Election","Main Election",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.740Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.642Z","2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.onpe.gob.pe\u002Felecciones\u002F) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https:\u002F\u002Fportal.jne.gob.pe\u002Fportal\u002F) ",16525619.599477056,{"id":65,"title":66,"slug":67,"category":10,"subcategory":54,"tags":68,"probability":72,"createdAt":73,"updatedAt":74,"resolutionDate":75,"description":76,"summary":76,"volume1wk":77,"featured":29},"30829","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",[54,53,18,14,20,69,70,71],"Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",1.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.593Z","2026-06-16T10:06:50.972Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9084772.468148999,{"id":79,"title":80,"slug":81,"category":10,"subcategory":54,"tags":82,"probability":84,"createdAt":85,"updatedAt":86,"resolutionDate":75,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":29},"31552","Presidential Election Winner 2028","presidential-election-winner-2028",[54,53,20,18,14,69,83,71,57],"President",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.733Z","2026-06-16T10:05:49.318Z","The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.",6422552.3238429995,1781606268239]