[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-10pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"100314","10pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027","10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https:\u002F\u002Fearthquake.usgs.gov\u002Fearthquakes\u002Fbrowse\u002Fsignificant.php#sigdef).\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. \n\nAfter a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.","The prediction market \"10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?\" asks whether at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher will occur anywhere on Earth before the market’s deadline. The event runs from December 8, 2025, through December 31, 2026, with a possible extension to January 31, 2027 if a qualifying quake has occurred but has not yet appeared in the official record. Resolution is based on the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with a 24-hour window after any qualifying event to account for magnitude revisions. This weather and science market sits within natural disasters forecasting, where traders are assessing the odds of an extremely rare seismic event. Current market probability is about 4.5%, indicating that market sentiment leans heavily toward a No resolution, though the forecast remains open until the deadline. As a prediction market tied to earthquakes and climate & science, it draws attention to how participants price low-probability, high-impact events using public seismic data and event prediction timelines.","WEATHER","Science",[11,13,14,15,16],"Weather","Climate & Science","Natural Disasters","Earthquakes","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fearthquake-7pt0-or-above-by-august-31-698-AANrykUigfWS.jpg",4.5,37.4,16309.571491000002,43212.78183,118463.052852,13554.127813300001,true,false,"2025-12-08T23:28:19.340Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-12-08T20:58:55.915Z","2026-06-16T10:02:19.825Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002F10pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027?r=predstack",[7,32,33,34,35,36,37],"10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? prediction","10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? odds","10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? probability","weather prediction market","weather forecast","weather probability","2026-06-16T10:28:23.907Z","2026-06-16T10:08:25.986Z",0,[42,55,68],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":25},"414162","Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?","measles-cases-in-us-by-may-31",[11,47,48,13],"Measles","Pandemics",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.250Z","2026-05-30T10:32:42.717Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cdc.gov\u002Fmeasles\u002Fdata-research\u002Findex.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.\n\nNote: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.",74334.21765800001,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":52,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":25},"427938","Precipitation in Seoul in May?","precipitation-in-seoul-in-may",[11,13,60,61,62],"Precipitation","South Korea","Seoul",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.360Z","2026-05-30T10:30:37.772Z","This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in May, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region\u002Fbranch of \"Seoul\".\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for \"ground\", the region\u002Fbranch is set for \"Seoul\", the element is set for \"precipitation\", and the period is set for the month of May at the https:\u002F\u002Fdata.kma.go.kr\u002Fclimate\u002FRankState\u002FselectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of May 2026.\n\nIf the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.",14792.074232000003,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":25},"131228","Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?","major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026",[11,73,74,75,13,76,14,15],"earthquake","Natural Disaster","clima","climate",11,"2026-05-30T10:43:22.240Z","2026-05-30T10:31:13.896Z","2027-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https:\u002F\u002Fvolcano.si.edu\u002F), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled \"Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N\u002FT)\" (https:\u002F\u002Fvolcano.si.edu\u002Ffaq\u002Findex.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.\n\nIf this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.\n\nNote: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fvolcano.si.edu\u002Ffaq\u002Findex.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.",12696.789500000003,1781606290029]