[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1044},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-elections":3,"category-content-elections":36},[4,26,43,56,69,81,97,111,125,142,158,171,184,197,208,223,233,246,258,270,284,296,307,318,333,350,362,375,388,399,412,425,438,449,460,470,485,499,514,527,540,554,565,581,592,602,613,628,640,651,661,671,684,695,706,719,730,741,754,768,780,794,805,816,831,841,853,865,876,888,899,910,923,934,947,958,969,981,995,1011,1022,1033],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":18,"createdAt":19,"updatedAt":20,"resolutionDate":21,"description":22,"summary":23,"volume1wk":24,"featured":25},"34584","Colombia Presidential Election","colombia-presidential-election","ELECTIONS","Politics",[9,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"Global Elections","Elections","World","World Elections","Colombia Election","Colombia","Main Election",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.106Z","2026-05-30T10:40:01.668Z","2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).","The Colombia Presidential Election prediction market tracks who will win Colombia’s 2026 presidential race, including the possibility of a second round if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. The first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a runoff, if needed, on June 21, 2026. If the result is still unresolved by December 31, 2026, the market is set to resolve to Other. This event matters because Colombia’s next president will shape national politics, policy direction, and the country’s response to major domestic and regional issues. The forecast is based on credible election reporting and, where necessary, the official results from Colombia’s National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil). As of the latest market data, traders assign roughly a 5% probability to the current leading outcome, signaling that market sentiment remains highly uncertain. For prediction market participants, this is a major election forecast with active odds, liquidity, and sustained interest across global elections and politics categories.",2471916.2878689985,true,{"id":27,"title":28,"slug":29,"category":8,"subcategory":30,"tags":31,"probability":36,"createdAt":37,"updatedAt":38,"resolutionDate":39,"description":40,"summary":41,"volume1wk":42,"featured":25},"32225","Which party will win the House in 2026?","which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","US Election",[30,9,32,14,12,11,33,34,35,17],"Midterms","Earn 4%","Parent For Derivative","United States",null,"2026-05-30T10:42:50.365Z","2026-05-30T10:38:10.388Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.","Which party will win the House in 2026? is a U.S. election prediction market focused on control of the House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The forecast asks traders to assess which party will hold a majority of voting members, with the market using credible reporting and, if needed, final election certification or the House Speaker selection to determine the result. If the Speaker belongs to a listed party, that affiliation will guide resolution; otherwise the outcome resolves to Other. This makes the event important not only for election watchers, but also for anyone tracking the balance of power in Congress, the broader U.S. political landscape, and 2026 election odds. The market is active from July 11, 2025 through election day, and it has drawn strong interest, with significant liquidity and open interest indicating meaningful market sentiment. While no single probability figure is provided here, traders are actively pricing the expected outcome through the prediction market, making it a useful gauge of House control forecasts ahead of the 2026 U.S. House elections.",311040.33982799994,{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":47,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":25},"31552","Presidential Election Winner 2028","presidential-election-winner-2028",[14,11,30,12,9,33,48,35,17],"President",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.733Z","2026-05-30T10:38:06.128Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.","Presidential Election Winner 2028 is a prediction market on who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. The forecast tracks the expected outcome of the main US election and will resolve to the person who is elected president, or to “No” if the market’s conditions are not met. The race is scheduled for November 7, 2028, with a final resolution backstop tied to the January 20, 2029 inauguration date if AP, Fox News, and NBC have not all called the race for the same candidate by then. As a result, this event focuses not just on election-night results, but also on the official certification path that determines how the market settles. Current market probability stands at about 65%, indicating traders are assigning a meaningful but far from certain chance to the expected outcome. For followers of US election odds, political forecasting, and event prediction, this market reflects broader market sentiment around the 2028 presidential contest in the United States.",12762950.039931998,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":8,"subcategory":30,"tags":60,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":39,"description":66,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":25},"57650","Maine Senate Election Winner","maine-senate-election-winner",[30,9,32,12,61,62],"Senate midterms","Maine Midterm",69,"2026-05-30T10:43:04.717Z","2026-05-30T10:35:12.352Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.\n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.\n\nCandidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.","Maine Senate Election Winner is an election prediction market focused on the outcome of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Traders are forecasting which candidate will be declared the winner, with the market resolving to the candidate called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three sources agree; if they do not, official certification will determine the result. The forecast reflects a classic U.S. election event in the Elections category, with relevance for Senate midterms, Maine politics, and broader market sentiment around the state’s general election. Current market probability places the leading outcome at about 69%, indicating traders see that result as favored but not assured. The event is active now and runs through the election period, with a scheduled end date of November 3, 2026. As with any election odds market, the expected outcome may change as campaigns develop, polling shifts, and new information affects trader expectations. This listing is useful for tracking the election forecast, probability, and live market sentiment around the Maine Senate race.",42700.06554700003,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":73,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":52,"description":78,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"30829","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",[14,11,12,9,30,33,74,35],"Primaries",1.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.593Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.146Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 is a prediction market tracking who will win and accept the Democratic Party’s nomination for U.S. president in 2028. The event matters because the nominee will shape the party’s national campaign, policy agenda, and general election strategy, making it a closely watched forecast in U.S. politics and world elections coverage. According to the market rules, the contract resolves to “Yes” if the named individual secures and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination; a replacement before Election Day does not change the resolution. The market is active from July 11, 2025 through November 7, 2028, when the outcome is expected to be settled. Current market probability is about 1.05%, indicating traders see the named outcome as a low-probability event at present, though prediction market odds can shift as the election cycle develops. As an election forecast, this market reflects market sentiment around Democratic primaries, party leadership, and the eventual nominee selection process.",14863770.623744,{"id":82,"title":83,"slug":84,"category":8,"subcategory":85,"tags":86,"probability":89,"createdAt":90,"updatedAt":91,"resolutionDate":92,"description":93,"summary":94,"volume1wk":95,"featured":96},"438483","France United Left Primary Winner","france-united-left-primary-winner","french",[85,11,87,9,12,88],"France","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:27.121Z","2026-05-30T10:40:26.561Z","2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z","The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.\n\nIf no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\". \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","France United Left Primary Winner is a prediction market on who will win the 2026 United Left primary and become the joint candidate supported by participating left-wing parties and movements for the 2027 French presidential election. The market is centered on the primary scheduled for October 11, 2026, and it resolves to the nominee selected through that process, with specific fallback rules if the primary is canceled or no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027. In practical terms, traders are forecasting which candidate will secure the left-wing nomination in France’s evolving election landscape. This event matters because the United Left primary is intended to unify several political groups behind one presidential contender, making it a key signal of market sentiment ahead of the 2027 campaign. Current market probability for the leading expected outcome is about 35%, suggesting a fairly open contest rather than a clear favorite. Resolution is based on credible reporting and official announcements from organizers or participating parties, which makes the event prediction dependent on real-time political developments, party participation, and nomination announcements.",9770.794992000001,false,{"id":98,"title":99,"slug":100,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":101,"probability":104,"createdAt":105,"updatedAt":106,"resolutionDate":107,"description":108,"summary":109,"volume1wk":110,"featured":96},"194008","Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?","will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026",[13,102,103,9],"Canada","Trump",15.75,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.025Z","2026-05-30T10:40:25.891Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? is an election prediction market focused on whether a referendum on Alberta’s independence from Canada will be passed by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if Alberta voters approve a referendum that establishes a desire for independence, creates a framework for separation, or directly establishes independence from Canada. It will resolve using official information from the Government of Alberta, with credible reporting as a fallback source. As of the latest update, traders assign the event about a 15.75% probability, indicating market sentiment still leans toward a “No” outcome. The forecast matters because it tracks a major constitutional and political question in Canada, with implications for Alberta, federal-provincial relations, and broader World politics. The prediction market opened on January 30, 2026 and runs through the end of 2026, giving traders time to react to developments in Alberta politics, referendum proposals, and official announcements. For readers following election odds and event prediction markets, this listing reflects current expectations rather than a guarantee of the eventual result.",11540.679286,{"id":112,"title":113,"slug":114,"category":8,"subcategory":103,"tags":115,"probability":119,"createdAt":120,"updatedAt":121,"resolutionDate":39,"description":122,"summary":123,"volume1wk":124,"featured":96},"131798","Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?","republican-trifecta-with-supermajority-in-the-senate",[103,12,32,9,116,30,117,118],"Parlays","Congress","Senate",9.8,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.002Z","2026-05-30T10:40:25.287Z","The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.\n\nIf control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nA candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n","Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? is a 2026 election prediction market tracking a specific Republican sweep in the U.S. midterms. The forecast asks whether, after the November 3, 2026 elections, the Republican Party will control the U.S. presidency, win a majority in the House of Representatives, and hold at least 60 seats in the Senate. In practical terms, this is a bet on a Republican trifecta with a Senate supermajority, not just a simple House or Senate result.\n\nThe market runs through election day and may remain open longer if any runoff election could affect the final outcome. Resolution will rely on AP, Fox News, and NBC, with official certification used if those sources do not agree. Current market probability is about 9.8%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible. As an election forecast, it reflects broader market sentiment around the Trump-era Republican coalition, congressional control, and whether the party can secure enough Senate seats to reach the supermajority threshold.",11048.869804000009,{"id":126,"title":127,"slug":128,"category":8,"subcategory":103,"tags":129,"probability":136,"createdAt":137,"updatedAt":138,"resolutionDate":107,"description":139,"summary":140,"volume1wk":141,"featured":96},"125790","Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?","ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31",[103,130,131,132,133,9,134,135],"zelensky","Ukraine","Geopolitics","putin","Russia","Ukraine Peace Deal",0,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.819Z","2026-05-30T10:40:21.294Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.\n\nA qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. \n\nOnce a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...? is a prediction market asking whether Ukraine will officially schedule a nationwide referendum on a peace deal related to the Russo-Ukrainian war by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event turns on a simple forecast: will a relevant Ukrainian government authority publicly announce a legal date for a peace referendum before the deadline? In this market, a qualifying schedule must be officially set and announced; later legal challenges would not change the outcome. \n\nThe event matters because it sits at the intersection of Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky, Putin, and the broader geopolitics of the war, making it a closely watched signal for any possible peace process. As of the latest data, market probability is shown at 0%, suggesting traders currently assign no chance to the expected outcome, though sentiment can shift quickly as negotiations or official statements emerge. The market uses official Ukrainian government information as the primary resolution source, with credible reporting as a backup. For election prediction market and event prediction watchers, this listing tracks whether a peace referendum becomes formally scheduled before the January deadline.",16248.59712,{"id":143,"title":144,"slug":145,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":146,"probability":151,"createdAt":152,"updatedAt":153,"resolutionDate":154,"description":155,"summary":156,"volume1wk":157,"featured":96},"45018","Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner","maine-democratic-senate-primary-winner",[9,12,30,74,147,148,149,150],"primary elections","Senate Primary","Democratic Primary","Maine Primary",98.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.940Z","2026-05-30T10:40:21.208Z","2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine.\n\nIf no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market on who will win the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. The event matters because it tracks the likely nominee in a high-profile 2026 election contest and reflects broader market sentiment around Maine politics and the Democratic field. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, the market resolves to \"Other,\" and the resolution source is the first official results announcement from the Maine Democratic Party, with credible consensus reporting also potentially sufficient. The forecasted outcome is simple: traders are pricing which candidate will emerge as the Democratic primary winner. As of the latest update, the market implies a 98.6% probability for the expected outcome, though that remains a forecast rather than a certainty. The market is active through the June 9, 2026 end date, making it relevant for election watchers following primary elections, Senate primary dynamics, and election odds in Maine.",50412.970923999965,{"id":159,"title":160,"slug":161,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":162,"probability":136,"createdAt":165,"updatedAt":166,"resolutionDate":167,"description":168,"summary":169,"volume1wk":170,"featured":96},"18558","Ukraine election called by...?","ukraine-election-called-in-2025",[13,132,131,9,163,11,164],"Foreign Policy","Trump-Zelenskyy","2026-05-30T10:43:02.412Z","2026-05-30T10:40:20.073Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Ukraine election called by...? is a prediction market focused on whether the next Ukrainian presidential election will be scheduled in 2025. The market resolves to Yes if an official date for the election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves to No. It does not depend on whether the election itself would take place in 2025 or later, only on whether the election is called during the specified window. Official information from the Government of Ukraine is the primary resolution source, with credible reporting also considered if needed. The event matters for Ukraine’s domestic political timeline as well as broader geopolitics and foreign policy, especially given ongoing attention from traders following the war and the Trump-Zelenskyy dynamic. As of the latest data, market probability is 0%, indicating no current expectation that the election will be called within the market’s timeframe. The forecast remains open through the end of 2025, and market sentiment can shift if new official announcements or credible reporting emerge.",53083.33773100001,{"id":172,"title":173,"slug":174,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":175,"probability":18,"createdAt":178,"updatedAt":179,"resolutionDate":180,"description":181,"summary":182,"volume1wk":183,"featured":96},"411069","Daegu Mayoral Election Winner","daegu-mayoral-election-winner",[11,12,17,176,9,177],"South Korea","South Korea Elections","2026-05-30T10:42:52.210Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.755Z","2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z","The Daegu mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nec.go.kr\u002F).\n","Daegu Mayoral Election Winner is a prediction market on the outcome of the Daegu mayoral election in South Korea, scheduled for June 3, 2026. The market forecasts which candidate will win the race, with interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors explicitly excluded from resolution. If the result is not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Other. Resolution will follow credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from South Korea’s National Election Commission. As an election forecast in the Global Elections category, this event draws attention from traders watching local political dynamics and election odds in one of South Korea’s major cities. Current market probability is around 5%, suggesting relatively low confidence in the named outcome at this time, though prediction market sentiment can change as election day approaches and official reporting becomes available.",199101.41762000002,{"id":185,"title":186,"slug":187,"category":8,"subcategory":188,"tags":189,"probability":190,"createdAt":191,"updatedAt":192,"resolutionDate":193,"description":194,"summary":195,"volume1wk":196,"featured":96},"204972","Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place","brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place","Brazil",[188,9,13,11,12],18.7,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.253Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.598Z","2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fdadosabertos.tse.jus.br\u002F).","Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place is a prediction market focused on which candidate will finish second in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026. The forecast is not about the winner, but about the candidate who receives the second-most valid votes after the first round is counted. That makes the market useful for tracking broader election dynamics, coalition strength, and changes in voter support among the leading contenders. If two candidates are tied on valid votes, the market rules break the tie by alphabetical order of last names, and the outcome will be determined from credible reporting or, if needed, official results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The market opens in February 2026 and remains active through election day, with a final resolution deadline of June 30, 2027 if the result is still not definitive. Current market probability is about 18.7%, indicating traders see this expected outcome as possible but far from certain. For election watchers, this event prediction offers a clear read on market sentiment around Brazil’s presidential race, first-round odds, and the likely runner-up in one of the most closely followed global elections.",16633.273896,{"id":198,"title":199,"slug":200,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":201,"probability":202,"createdAt":203,"updatedAt":204,"resolutionDate":180,"description":205,"summary":206,"volume1wk":207,"featured":96},"90335","2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner","2026-south-korean-local-elections-party-winner",[9,12,176,11,13,14,17],98.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:57.986Z","2026-05-30T10:40:18.629Z","South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.\n\nA candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.\n\nSouth Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:\n\nCities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong\n\nProvinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong,  North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.\n\nA party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.\n\nIn the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.\n\nResolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.","2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner is a prediction market on which political party will win the most head of local government races in South Korea’s upper-level local elections. The forecast covers mayoral contests in Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, and Sejong, plus governor races in Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, and Gangwon. The election is scheduled for June 3, 2026, and the market will resolve when official results make it mathematically impossible for another party to overtake the leader. Independent candidates do not count toward any party total.\n\nThis event matters because it offers a clean party-level read on South Korea’s local political landscape, with market sentiment reflecting traders’ expectations across the country’s major urban and provincial contests. As of the latest data, the market-implied probability is 98.25%, indicating a strong consensus on the expected outcome, though the final result will depend on official reporting from the National Election Commission. If results are delayed, the market remains open until the election outcome is known or until the January 31, 2027 deadline for resolution based on available results.",85228.81684999999,{"id":209,"title":210,"slug":211,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":212,"probability":217,"createdAt":218,"updatedAt":219,"resolutionDate":39,"description":220,"summary":221,"volume1wk":222,"featured":96},"64731","Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?","billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026",[9,12,213,214,215,216],"Taxes","referendum","referendums midterms","Fiscal",40.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:16.399Z","2026-05-30T10:40:18.226Z","A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https:\u002F\u002F6abc.com\u002Fpost\u002Fcalifornia-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people\u002F18066430\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions\u002Finitiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? is an election prediction market centered on whether California voters will approve a qualifying ballot proposition that would impose a one-time tax on billionaires. The market asks if any statewide measure targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion will pass in the November 3, 2026 general election. If no qualifying initiative is certified for the official California ballot by the June 25, 2026 cutoff, or if a proposal is removed or amended so the threshold falls below $1 billion, the market resolves No. Current market probability is about 40.5%, suggesting traders see the outcome as plausible but far from certain. The forecast is relevant to California politics, taxes, referendums, and fiscal policy, especially as market sentiment tracks whether organizers can place a measure on the ballot and whether it can win statewide approval. As with other election odds, the event outcome depends on official state action and the final wording of any proposition.",18295.206736,{"id":224,"title":225,"slug":226,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":227,"probability":18,"createdAt":228,"updatedAt":229,"resolutionDate":180,"description":230,"summary":231,"volume1wk":232,"featured":96},"80029","2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner","2026-gyeonggi-province-gubernatorial-election-winner",[9,12,176,13,14,11,17],"2026-05-30T10:43:00.482Z","2026-05-30T10:40:17.358Z","The 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Gyeonggi Province.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.","The 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner prediction market asks traders to forecast which candidate will win the June 3, 2026 gubernatorial election in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. The event is important because Gyeonggi is the country’s most populous province, and the governor’s race is a major political contest with implications for regional administration and national party momentum. This election market will resolve to the listed candidate that wins the vote, with official results from the South Korean National Election Commission serving as the निर्णing source if there is any ambiguity. If the outcome is still not known by January 31, 2027, the market will resolve to “Other.” As of the latest data, market probability is about 5%, indicating very limited expected outcome support from traders. The prediction market remains active ahead of the election date, and market sentiment can shift as campaigning, polling, and credible reporting develop. This event is categorized under Elections and Politics, and it is relevant to broader South Korea and global elections tracking.",61291.74376900002,{"id":234,"title":235,"slug":236,"category":8,"subcategory":133,"tags":237,"probability":239,"createdAt":240,"updatedAt":241,"resolutionDate":242,"description":243,"summary":244,"volume1wk":245,"featured":96},"149565","Russia Parliamentary Election Winner","russia-parliamentary-election-winner",[133,134,13,12,14,11,9,238,17],"Russia Election",0.4,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.853Z","2026-05-30T10:40:10.787Z","2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z","Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.\n\nNote: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.\n","Russia Parliamentary Election Winner is a prediction market on which political party will win the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, scheduled for September 2026. The event forecast focuses on the parliamentary vote outcome in the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, with resolution based on official Russian government results if credible reporting is unclear. If the outcome is still not definitively known by September 30, 2027, the market resolves to \"Other.\" Current market probability puts this outcome at about 40%, reflecting trader expectations and broader market sentiment ahead of the election. The listing matters because the State Duma is Russia’s national legislature, and seat totals will determine which party emerges as the winner under the market’s rules. The prediction market also includes specific tie-break procedures based on vote totals and, if needed, alphabetical order. Tagged under elections, politics, Russia, and Putin-related markets, this event is an election forecast for one of the most closely watched political contests in global elections.",50720.269279,{"id":247,"title":248,"slug":249,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":250,"probability":252,"createdAt":253,"updatedAt":254,"resolutionDate":180,"description":255,"summary":256,"volume1wk":257,"featured":96},"79973","2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner","2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner",[9,13,12,176,11,14,251,177],"rewards 100, 4.5, 100",25.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.527Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.541Z","The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.","The 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner prediction market asks traders to forecast who will win the Seoul mayoral election, scheduled for June 3, 2026. This election will determine the next mayor of Seoul, South Korea’s capital and largest city, making it a closely watched political event in the Elections category. The market will resolve to the listed candidate that wins the race, based on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the South Korean government’s National Election Commission. If the outcome is still unknown by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to \"Other.\" Current market probability stands at 25.5%, reflecting the latest odds and market sentiment rather than a guaranteed result. As an election prediction market, this listing tracks how traders assess the expected outcome as the campaign progresses, with attention on South Korea, World Elections, and broader political forecasting. The event is relevant for anyone following Seoul politics, South Korea elections, and election prediction market movements leading into the June 2026 vote.",864411.1100699998,{"id":259,"title":260,"slug":261,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":262,"probability":264,"createdAt":265,"updatedAt":266,"resolutionDate":107,"description":267,"summary":268,"volume1wk":269,"featured":96},"73969","Trump out as President before 2027?","trump-out-as-president-before-2027",[12,9,132,103,263],"Epstein",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.427Z","2026-05-30T10:40:06.739Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Trump out as President before 2027? is an election prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Trump resigns, is removed from office, or otherwise permanently stops serving as president during the market’s timeframe. Temporary removal, impeachment without removal, or an unsuccessful 25th Amendment process do not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4, would qualify as a Yes outcome. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. As of the latest update, the market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders currently assign relatively low odds to this event prediction. Because this is a politics and elections market, sentiment may shift with major developments involving Trump, the White House, Congress, or broader geopolitical events. The market opened on November 5, 2025 and runs through the end of 2026, making it a long-dated election forecast with continuing relevance for political risk watchers and prediction market traders.",139446.76102399986,{"id":271,"title":272,"slug":273,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":274,"probability":75,"createdAt":278,"updatedAt":279,"resolutionDate":280,"description":281,"summary":282,"volume1wk":283,"featured":96},"106520","Peru Presidential Election Winner","peru-presidential-election-winner",[9,11,14,12,275,276,17,277],"Peru","Peru Election","Rewards 200, 4.5, 50","2026-05-30T10:42:44.740Z","2026-05-30T10:40:04.425Z","2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.onpe.gob.pe\u002Felecciones\u002F) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https:\u002F\u002Fportal.jne.gob.pe\u002Fportal\u002F) ","Peru Presidential Election Winner is a prediction market on who will win Peru’s next presidential election, including the possibility of a second round. General elections are scheduled for April 12, 2026, and the market will resolve to the listed candidate that ultimately secures the presidency. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome will resolve to \"Other.\" This election market draws on official reporting from Peru’s National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) and the National Jury of Elections (JNE) if there is any ambiguity in the result.\n\nAs an election forecast, the market is useful for tracking political sentiment around Peru’s main election and for comparing trader expectations as the campaign develops. The current market probability is about 1.05%, indicating very limited odds assigned to a specific outcome at this moment. Because the event can be affected by a runoff and by post-election certification, it is a relevant example of how prediction market pricing reflects evolving expectations rather than a guaranteed result.",3592881.1421839977,{"id":285,"title":286,"slug":287,"category":8,"subcategory":188,"tags":288,"probability":290,"createdAt":291,"updatedAt":292,"resolutionDate":193,"description":293,"summary":294,"volume1wk":295,"featured":96},"45915","Brazil Presidential Election","brazil-presidential-election",[188,11,14,13,9,289,17],"Macro Election 2",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.323Z","2026-05-30T10:40:02.997Z","A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fdadosabertos.tse.jus.br\u002F).","Brazil Presidential Election is a prediction market on who will win Brazil’s next presidential race, scheduled for October 4, 2026, with any potential second round included in the resolution. The event matters because it reflects the expected outcome of one of the world’s largest democracies and can signal broader market sentiment around Brazilian politics, policy direction, and regional stability. Traders are forecasting which listed candidate will ultimately be confirmed as the winner, with the market resolving to the official result reported by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) if there is any ambiguity. If the election outcome is not known by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” Current market probability is about 15%, indicating relatively low odds for the leading outcome reflected in the contract at this time. As a Brazil-focused global elections event, this election forecast is closely watched across politics and macro-election categories, especially by users tracking election odds, event prediction trends, and pre-election sentiment ahead of the vote.",5694345.351489,{"id":297,"title":298,"slug":299,"category":8,"subcategory":103,"tags":300,"probability":18,"createdAt":301,"updatedAt":302,"resolutionDate":303,"description":304,"summary":305,"volume1wk":306,"featured":96},"424292","Trump out as President by May 31?","trump-out-as-president-by-may-31",[103,9],"2026-05-30T10:42:46.411Z","2026-05-30T10:39:57.649Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Trump out as President by May 31? is an election prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Trump resigns, is permanently removed from office, or otherwise stops serving as president during the market window. It also counts a sustained invocation of the 25th Amendment, Section 4, but not temporary removal, impeachment without removal, or other short-term events. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market matters because it reflects real-time market sentiment around a high-stakes political outcome involving Trump, Congress, the Vice President, and the Cabinet. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of a rare presidential succession scenario rather than a typical election result. As of the latest data, the market implies about a 5% probability of Trump being out of office by the deadline, suggesting low odds but meaningful attention from prediction market participants. The event began on April 27, 2026 and runs through the end of May 31, making timing central to the forecast and final resolution.",1290998.4749839995,{"id":308,"title":309,"slug":310,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":311,"probability":312,"createdAt":313,"updatedAt":314,"resolutionDate":180,"description":315,"summary":316,"volume1wk":317,"featured":96},"83686","Incheon Mayoral Election Winner","incheon-mayoral-election-winner",[13,176,9,12,11,14,17],4.7,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.566Z","2026-05-30T10:39:53.689Z","The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nec.go.kr\u002F).\n","Incheon Mayoral Election Winner is a prediction market on who will win the mayoral election in Incheon, South Korea. The forecast tracks the expected outcome of the June 3, 2026 election, with the market set to resolve to the candidate identified as the winner based on credible reporting or, if needed, the official results from South Korea’s National Election Commission. If the result were not known by December 31, 2026, the market would resolve to “Other.” As of the latest market data, traders assign the leading candidate a probability of about 4.7%, indicating market sentiment remains highly uncertain and that the election odds are still fluid. This event matters because Incheon is one of South Korea’s major cities, and mayoral races can signal broader political trends ahead of future elections. For prediction market participants, the listing functions as an election forecast centered on a single local contest, with updated odds reflecting how traders interpret news, polling, and expected outcomes over time.",60461.112687999994,{"id":319,"title":320,"slug":321,"category":8,"subcategory":214,"tags":322,"probability":326,"createdAt":327,"updatedAt":328,"resolutionDate":329,"description":330,"summary":331,"volume1wk":332,"featured":96},"339875","Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass?","switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass",[214,323,324,325,9],"Popular Vote","Switzerland","Referenda",41,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.814Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.224Z","2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z","As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 : \n\n- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland\n- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.\n\nIf the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.\n\nThe resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.admin.ch\u002Fgov\u002Fen\u002Fstart\u002Fdocumentation\u002Fvotes\u002F20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ch.ch\u002Fen\u002Fvotes-and-elections\u002F). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.","Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass? is a prediction market on the outcome of the nationwide popular vote scheduled for June 14, 2026. The market tracks whether the listed referendum issues in Switzerland will clear the required legal threshold in the ballot, with the outcome resolving to “Yes” if approval is reached and “No” if it is not. The two referenda identified in the description are the “No to ten million Switzerland” initiative and the referendum on the Civilian Service Act, making this an election and referendum forecast closely tied to Swiss politics and direct democracy.\n\nFor traders following market sentiment, the current probability is about 41%, suggesting the expected outcome remains uncertain rather than decisive. Because resolution is based on official certified referendum results from Swiss authorities, the event depends on the final nationwide vote and any applicable counter-proposal rules. If the referendum is rescheduled, the same logic applies to the new ballot date. This prediction market is part of the broader elections category and provides a real-time view of odds around Switzerland’s June referendum.",76576.07017800001,{"id":334,"title":335,"slug":336,"category":8,"subcategory":337,"tags":338,"probability":343,"createdAt":344,"updatedAt":345,"resolutionDate":346,"description":347,"summary":348,"volume1wk":349,"featured":96},"57111","Los Angeles Mayoral Election","los-angeles-mayoral-election-117","mayor",[337,9,30,12,339,340,341,335,342],"Los Angeles","Mayoral Elections","LA","LA Mayor",62.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.699Z","2026-05-30T10:39:45.485Z","2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z","The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.","The Los Angeles Mayoral Election prediction market tracks the outcome of the 2026 race to elect the next mayor of Los Angeles, California. According to the market rules, the event will resolve to the candidate who wins the election, with credible reporting used as the primary source and official City of Los Angeles information used if results are unclear. The main vote is scheduled for June 2, 2026, and if no candidate earns a majority, a runoff would be held on November 3, 2026. This makes the market a live forecast of both the election result and broader market sentiment around the Los Angeles mayoral contest. Current market probability places the leading expected outcome at 62.5%, suggesting traders see that candidate as the frontrunner, though the odds can still change as the campaign develops. As a US election and mayoral election event, it is closely watched by participants following election prediction markets, Los Angeles politics, and local governance outcomes.",1187662.084763001,{"id":351,"title":352,"slug":353,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":354,"probability":355,"createdAt":356,"updatedAt":357,"resolutionDate":358,"description":359,"summary":360,"volume1wk":361,"featured":96},"452834","2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Winner","2026-jeonbuk-province-gubernatorial-election-winner",[9,176,13,17,11,12,14],76.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:15.285Z","2026-05-30T10:39:39.914Z","2026-06-03T06:00:00.000Z","The 2026 Jeonbuk Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Jeonbuk Province.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.","The 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Winner prediction market asks traders to forecast who will win the June 3, 2026 gubernatorial election in Jeonbuk Province, South Korea. The market will resolve to the listed candidate that wins the election, based on credible reporting or, if needed, official results from the South Korean National Election Commission. If the outcome is not known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to \"Other.\"\n\nThis election matters because it will determine the next Governor of Jeonbuk Province, making it an important event in South Korean regional politics and a key focal point for election market sentiment. The current market probability for the leading outcome is 76.5%, suggesting traders see a strong expected outcome, though the forecast remains subject to the actual vote and official certification. As an active election prediction market, it reflects shifting odds, liquidity, and event prediction interest ahead of election day.",19075.037617,{"id":363,"title":364,"slug":365,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":366,"probability":368,"createdAt":369,"updatedAt":370,"resolutionDate":371,"description":372,"summary":373,"volume1wk":374,"featured":96},"432563","Malta General Election: Turnout","malta-general-election-turnout",[9,367,11,12,88],"Malta",27.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.979Z","2026-05-30T10:39:03.567Z","2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Maltese general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of registered voters.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Government of Malta, including the Electoral Commission of Malta (https:\u002F\u002Felectoral.gov.mt\u002F)","Malta General Election: Turnout is a prediction market on the voter participation rate in Malta’s 2026 general election, scheduled for May 30, 2026. The market resolves according to the official turnout published by the Government of Malta and the Electoral Commission of Malta, measured as total votes cast divided by total registered voters. Traders are forecasting the expected turnout bracket rather than the election winner, making this an event prediction focused on voter engagement and election administration. As of the latest market data, the implied probability sits at 27.5%, which reflects current market sentiment but is not a guarantee of the final result. If the official turnout figure falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. Should the election outcome remain unconfirmed by March 31, 2027, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. This election forecast is relevant for analysts tracking Malta politics, global elections, and turnout odds in a live prediction market setting.",14101.628635,{"id":376,"title":377,"slug":378,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":379,"probability":381,"createdAt":382,"updatedAt":383,"resolutionDate":384,"description":385,"summary":386,"volume1wk":387,"featured":96},"79987","Next French Presidential Election","next-french-presidential-election",[12,11,13,87,9,380,17],"French Election",5.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.243Z","2026-05-30T10:38:59.818Z","2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.interieur.gouv.fr\u002F).","Next French Presidential Election is a prediction market on who will win France’s next presidential election, expected around April 2027. The market covers the full French voting process, including the possibility of a second round runoff, and resolves to the candidate who is ultimately confirmed as the winner. Under France’s two-round system, a candidate must win more than 50% in the first round to avoid a runoff between the top two contenders. If the result is still unclear by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to \"Other.\" \n\nThis event matters because the French presidency is one of the most influential offices in European politics, shaping domestic policy, EU relations, and France’s role in global affairs. Market sentiment currently gives this event a probability of 5.5%, reflecting trader expectations in the election forecast. The event is active from November 2025 through April 30, 2027, making it a long-duration election prediction market for monitoring odds, candidate momentum, and changing outlooks as the race develops.",6049741.773300001,{"id":389,"title":390,"slug":391,"category":8,"subcategory":30,"tags":392,"probability":393,"createdAt":394,"updatedAt":395,"resolutionDate":346,"description":396,"summary":397,"volume1wk":398,"featured":96},"482873","LA Mayoral Election: First Round Winner?","la-mayoral-election-first-round-winner",[30,9,341,12,340,335,339,342],71.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.437Z","2026-05-30T10:38:55.487Z","The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.","LA Mayoral Election: First Round Winner? is a prediction market on which candidate will finish first in the initial round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. The forecast focuses on the candidate who receives the most valid votes on June 2, 2026, with the market resolving to the highest-ranked finisher under the stated rules if vote totals are tied. If no candidate wins a majority, the election would move to a runoff on November 3, 2026, but this market is specifically about the first-round result. The event is relevant to US Election and Los Angeles politics because it offers a real-time view of market sentiment around the LA mayoral race. As of the latest data, traders are pricing the listed outcome at about 71.5% probability, suggesting it is the current expected outcome but not a certainty. The market will settle using credible reporting and official results from the city and county of Los Angeles, with a fallback to \"Other\" if the result is not definitively known by December 31, 2026. This makes it a focused event prediction for election watchers tracking odds, probabilities, and vote-count outcomes.",187475.93971099996,{"id":400,"title":401,"slug":402,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":403,"probability":405,"createdAt":406,"updatedAt":407,"resolutionDate":408,"description":409,"summary":410,"volume1wk":411,"featured":96},"510803","Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory?","peru-election-2nd-round-margin-of-victory",[9,12,276,275,404],"rewards 200, 4.5, 20",0.75,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.323Z","2026-05-30T10:38:29.408Z","2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z","The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.onpe.gob.pe\u002Felecciones\u002F) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https:\u002F\u002Fportal.jne.gob.pe\u002Fportal\u002F)\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? is a prediction market focused on the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, scheduled for June 7, 2026. The market forecasts the absolute margin between the first-place and second-place candidates, based on the share of valid votes each receives in the official count. In other words, traders are estimating how close or decisive the second-round result will be, not just who wins. Because the contract resolves only after the vote total is made official by Peru’s electoral authorities, the outcome depends on the final reported results from ONPE and, if needed, the JNE. If a recount delays certification, the market remains open until the count is finalized, with a backstop resolution by December 31, 2026. Current market probability is around 75%, suggesting traders currently see one listed outcome as the most likely, though the forecast can still shift as campaign developments and polling change market sentiment. This election prediction market is relevant for anyone tracking Peru, elections, politics, and election odds ahead of the June runoff.",53545.524638,{"id":413,"title":414,"slug":415,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":416,"probability":419,"createdAt":420,"updatedAt":421,"resolutionDate":107,"description":422,"summary":423,"volume1wk":424,"featured":96},"506573","Prabowo Subianto out as President of Indonesia by...?","prabowo-subianto-out-as-president-of-indonesia-by",[9,417,418],"Indonesia","Prabowo",0.2,"2026-05-30T10:43:10.954Z","2026-05-30T10:38:10.399Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Prabowo Subianto ceases to be President of the Republic of Indonesia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Prabowo Subianto's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Prabowo Subianto and the government of Indonesia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Prabowo Subianto out as President of Indonesia by...? is a politics prediction market that asks whether Prabowo Subianto will cease to be President of the Republic of Indonesia at any point before the market’s end date of December 31, 2026 ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the chance that he resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from serving in the office during the market window. An official resignation, removal announcement, or credible reporting confirming such a change can resolve the market to Yes.\n\nThis election-related event matters because it tracks leadership stability in Indonesia and broader political risk around the presidency. As of the latest update, the market probability is about 20%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low but notable chance of an out-of-office outcome before the deadline. The event sits in the Elections category and Politics subcategory, with search interest centered on Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia, prediction market odds, and election forecast sentiment.",25097.094807999998,{"id":426,"title":427,"slug":428,"category":8,"subcategory":429,"tags":430,"probability":432,"createdAt":433,"updatedAt":434,"resolutionDate":107,"description":435,"summary":436,"volume1wk":437,"featured":96},"521954","Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?","will-turkey-schedule-early-presidential-elections-in-2026","erdogan",[429,9,431],"Turkey",16,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.462Z","2026-05-30T10:38:06.187Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Turkey officially announces early presidential elections to occur before the currently scheduled 2028 Turkish presidential election, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying announcement requires an official public announcement by the Turkish government, the Presidency of Turkey, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, or the Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK) establishing, approving, scheduling, or formally initiating a presidential election to occur before the currently scheduled 2028 election.\n\nAnnouncements of discussions, proposals, negotiations, speculation, or calls for early elections by politicians, parties, media, or commentators, without official action to schedule or initiate such elections, will not qualify.\n\nIf early presidential elections are officially announced before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" regardless of whether the elections are later postponed, canceled, or ultimately held.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Turkish government authorities or the Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? is an election prediction market asking whether Turkish authorities will officially announce presidential elections to be held before the currently scheduled 2028 vote. The market resolves to Yes only if a formal public decision is made by the Turkish government, the Presidency of Turkey, the Grand National Assembly, or the Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Informal discussion, political pressure, or media speculation would not be enough. This event matters because an early election could signal a major shift in Turkey’s political calendar and in the broader contest around Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the country’s leadership. Current market probability is about 16%, suggesting traders see early presidential elections as possible but not the base case. As a prediction market and election forecast, the event reflects market sentiment on whether official action will be taken in 2026. The resolution will depend primarily on official Turkish sources, with credible reporting used only if needed.",78621.63158800002,{"id":439,"title":440,"slug":441,"category":8,"subcategory":14,"tags":442,"probability":443,"createdAt":444,"updatedAt":445,"resolutionDate":242,"description":446,"summary":447,"volume1wk":448,"featured":96},"149589","Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?","which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",[14,12,11,133,134,13,9],3.45,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.044Z","2026-05-30T10:38:04.348Z","Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.","Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? is a prediction market on the outcome of Russia’s next State Duma election, scheduled for September 2026. The market asks traders to forecast which political party will increase its seat count the most compared with the current parliament, making it a focused event prediction for Russian politics and World Elections. The resolution is based solely on the number of seats gained in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, with official Russian government results and credible reporting used if the outcome is unclear. If the election results are still not definitively known by September 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other. Current market probability sits at 3.45%, reflecting modest odds and limited market sentiment around the leading party outcome so far. Because the event centers on parliamentary seat gains rather than vote share alone, the forecast depends on how election results translate into legislative representation.",649268.6005470001,{"id":450,"title":451,"slug":452,"category":8,"subcategory":30,"tags":453,"probability":454,"createdAt":455,"updatedAt":456,"resolutionDate":39,"description":457,"summary":458,"volume1wk":459,"featured":96},"32224","Which party will win the Senate in 2026?","which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",[30,9,32,14,11,12,33,34,118,35,117,17],46.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.420Z","2026-05-30T10:37:47.976Z","This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nSenate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.","Which party will win the Senate in 2026? is a U.S. election prediction market focused on which party will control the Senate after the November 3, 2026 Senate elections. The forecast is about final chamber control, not individual races: a party wins if it holds more than half of voting Senate members, or if the Senate is split and the Vice Presidency provides the tie-breaking majority. If control remains unclear after Election Day, the market stays open until the Senate selects its Majority Leader, and the result will follow that leader’s party affiliation. Current market sentiment puts the probability around 46.5%, reflecting a closely contested outlook. Traders are watching the 2026 U.S. midterms, Senate control, and certification of official results as the key inputs for the expected outcome. The event sits in the Elections category and is relevant to U.S. politics, Congress, and broader election forecasting.",78859.27768599999,{"id":461,"title":462,"slug":463,"category":8,"subcategory":30,"tags":464,"probability":36,"createdAt":465,"updatedAt":466,"resolutionDate":52,"description":467,"summary":468,"volume1wk":469,"featured":96},"33228","Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?","which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",[30,12,9,11,33],"2026-05-30T10:43:07.808Z","2026-05-30T10:37:45.672Z","The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.","Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? is a prediction market on the outcome of the next U.S. presidential race, asking which political party will win the White House in 2028. The market resolves to the party whose candidate is elected President of the United States, with the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC used as the primary resolution sources. If those outlets have not all called the race for the same party by Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the result will be based on who is inaugurated. This makes the event relevant well beyond Election Day on November 7, 2028, since final resolution depends on both vote calls and the formal transfer of power. Traders use the market to express election forecast views, and the odds reflect market sentiment around the expected outcome over time. As of the latest data, no public probability is provided, but the event is active and continues to attract attention within U.S. election and politics categories.",33242.857435,{"id":471,"title":472,"slug":473,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":474,"probability":478,"createdAt":479,"updatedAt":480,"resolutionDate":481,"description":482,"summary":483,"volume1wk":484,"featured":96},"379960","Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?","tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30",[9,475,476,477],"Orban","Hungary","Magyar",23,"2026-05-30T10:42:58.725Z","2026-05-30T10:37:18.389Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be the President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and June 30 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Sulyok's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? is a political prediction market asking whether Tamas Sulyok will cease to be President of Hungary at any point before the June 30 deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops serving in the office for any period between market creation and the end date; an official announcement of resignation or removal before June 30 would also settle the market to Yes, even if the change takes effect later. Otherwise, the expected outcome is No. The resolution source is official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government, with credible reporting also considered if needed. This event matters to traders following Hungary politics, including developments involving Orban and Magyar, because it reflects market sentiment on leadership stability and political continuity. As of the latest market data, the implied probability of Sulyok being out as president by June 30 is 23%, suggesting traders see the event as possible but not the base case. The event runs through June 30, making timing central to the prediction and resolution.",77439.76906699999,{"id":486,"title":487,"slug":488,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":489,"probability":36,"createdAt":494,"updatedAt":495,"resolutionDate":39,"description":496,"summary":497,"volume1wk":498,"featured":96},"57672","Texas Senate Election Winner","texas-senate-election-winner",[9,12,30,32,490,61,491,492,493],"Texas Senate","Texas Midterm","James Talarico","Ken Paxton","2026-05-30T10:42:53.625Z","2026-05-30T10:36:32.562Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.\n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.\n\nCandidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.","Texas Senate Election Winner is a prediction market on who will win the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The event matters because Texas is one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the U.S. midterms, and the result will shape the balance of power in the Senate. The market is tied to major political figures and parties in the race, with tags highlighting Texas Senate, Senate midterms, James Talarico, and Ken Paxton. In this event prediction, traders are forecasting the expected outcome of the election rather than policy or polling alone. The market resolves using the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three call the race for the same candidate; if they do not agree, official certification determines the result. Trading began on 2025-10-13 and the market is scheduled through 2026-11-03. Volume and open interest indicate strong engagement, but no single probability is displayed here, so market sentiment must be inferred from trading activity rather than a posted odds figure.",156515.491747,{"id":500,"title":501,"slug":502,"category":8,"subcategory":503,"tags":504,"probability":136,"createdAt":508,"updatedAt":509,"resolutionDate":510,"description":511,"summary":512,"volume1wk":513,"featured":96},"16423","UK election called by...?","uk-election-called-by","Starmer",[503,505,506,507],"UK","pedophile","England","2026-05-30T10:43:23.098Z","2026-05-30T10:36:17.042Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This is a market on predicting the date when the UK general election will be officially called.","UK election called by...? is a prediction market asking when the UK general election will be officially called. Traders are forecasting the date of the formal election announcement rather than the election result itself, making this an event prediction focused on timing, political strategy, and market sentiment around the UK and England. The market is tied to the Starmer context and remains active through 2025, with an end date of December 31, 2025. Based on available data, the current market probability is 0, so no clear consensus is reflected in the listed odds at this time. As with other election prediction markets, the expected outcome depends on political developments and the timing of an official call by the government. This event is relevant for users tracking election forecast movements, UK political news, and how traders price in the likelihood of a general election being called during the market window.",12000.394715,{"id":515,"title":516,"slug":517,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":518,"probability":520,"createdAt":521,"updatedAt":522,"resolutionDate":523,"description":524,"summary":525,"volume1wk":526,"featured":96},"45017","Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner","michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner",[12,9,30,74,147,149,519,148],"Michigan Primary",24.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.644Z","2026-05-30T10:36:15.335Z","2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.\n\nIf no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market on which candidate will win the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. The event forecasts the outcome of the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary, with a fallback to \"Other\" if no primary takes place. According to the current market, the implied probability is 24.5%, giving traders a live view of market sentiment around the expected outcome. The market opened on 2025-09-15 and is scheduled to run through 2026-08-04, making it a long-dated election forecast tied to the 2026 U.S. election cycle. Resolution will depend first on the Michigan Democratic Party’s official announcement of results, although overwhelming credible reporting may also determine the outcome. As an election prediction market in the Politics and Elections category, it reflects shifting odds, candidate strength, and broader primary dynamics in Michigan. Searchers following Michigan primary elections, Democratic Primary contests, or Senate Primary odds can use this listing to track how traders are pricing the race ahead of the official result.",10589.3181,{"id":528,"title":529,"slug":530,"category":8,"subcategory":531,"tags":532,"probability":534,"createdAt":535,"updatedAt":536,"resolutionDate":303,"description":537,"summary":538,"volume1wk":539,"featured":96},"147848","Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner","lebanon-parliamentary-election-winner","Middle East",[531,533,11,14,12,9,17],"Lebanon",1.7,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.903Z","2026-05-30T10:36:05.898Z","Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament..\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).\n\nNote: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.","Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner is a prediction market on which political party will win the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. Parliamentary elections in Lebanon are expected in May 2026, and the market is scheduled to resolve by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET if the result is not definitively known sooner. The forecast is straightforward: traders are assessing the expected outcome of the election based on the party that secures the most seats, with official results from the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities used if needed. If a tied seat count occurs, the market uses valid votes and then alphabetical order as final tiebreakers. Current market probability is about 1.7%, reflecting the market sentiment and odds at the time of tracking. This event sits in the Elections category for the Middle East and is relevant for monitoring Lebanon, regional politics, and broader world election forecasts.",10429.4459,{"id":541,"title":542,"slug":543,"category":8,"subcategory":505,"tags":544,"probability":547,"createdAt":548,"updatedAt":549,"resolutionDate":550,"description":551,"summary":552,"volume1wk":553,"featured":96},"508139","Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place","makerfield-by-election-2nd-place",[505,11,9,12,503,545,546],"UK Elections","Makerfield",22,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.145Z","2026-05-30T10:35:43.593Z","2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z","A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wigan.gov.uk\u002F).","Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place is a UK election prediction market focused on which candidate will finish with the second-highest number of valid votes in the parliamentary by-election for the Makerfield constituency. The election is expected to take place on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons, and the market will resolve based on the official or credibly reported vote totals, with Wigan Council results serving as the final reference if needed. If the result is not definitively known by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to \"Other.\" \n\nThis event is useful for traders tracking UK Elections, because it isolates the contest for second place rather than the winner, making it a more specific forecast of local political dynamics. Current market probability is around 22%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance for the leading candidate in this particular outcome, though that probability may change as campaign coverage and election results approach. As with any prediction market, odds and market sentiment can shift quickly based on candidate performance, reporting, and turnout expectations.",10958.903428,{"id":555,"title":556,"slug":557,"category":8,"subcategory":558,"tags":559,"probability":290,"createdAt":560,"updatedAt":561,"resolutionDate":358,"description":562,"summary":563,"volume1wk":564,"featured":96},"525578","2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Turnout","2026-seoul-mayoral-election-turnout","Seoul",[558,176,9,12,11,177],"2026-05-30T10:43:24.917Z","2026-05-30T10:35:43.016Z","The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, defined as the total number of votes cast (총투표자수) divided by the total number of registered voters (선거인수).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https:\u002F\u002Finfo.nec.go.kr\u002F).","2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Turnout is a prediction market on the official voter turnout rate in the June 3, 2026 Seoul mayoral election. The forecast asks traders to estimate how many registered voters will cast ballots, using the National Election Commission’s final results from South Korea. In this market, turnout is defined as total votes cast divided by total registered voters, and if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the higher bracket will be selected. The event is active through election day, with resolution based on official government reporting. If the outcome is not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. Current market probability is about 15%, which reflects market sentiment rather than a certainty. As an election prediction market, it provides a live forecast of expected turnout, making it relevant for Seoul politics, South Korea elections, and broader event prediction analysis.",11082.566877,{"id":566,"title":567,"slug":568,"category":8,"subcategory":569,"tags":570,"probability":574,"createdAt":575,"updatedAt":576,"resolutionDate":577,"description":578,"summary":579,"volume1wk":580,"featured":96},"479079","Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?","florentino-perez-out-as-real-madrid-president-by-december-31-2026","real madrid",[569,571,572,573],"La Liga","Florentino Perez","Soccer",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.656Z","2026-05-30T10:35:41.338Z","2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Florentino Perez ceases to be the President of Real Madrid for any length of time by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Florentino Perez’s resignation or firing before the market’s end date will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced resignation or firing goes into effect.\n\nThis market’s primary resolution source will be official information from Real Madrid and\u002For Florentino Perez; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? is a prediction market asking whether the longtime Real Madrid leader will cease to serve as club president at any point before the end of 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Perez resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops being president for any length of time by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. An official announcement from Real Madrid or Perez would be the key resolution source, although credible reporting may also be considered. This event matters because Florentino Perez is one of the most influential figures in European soccer and Real Madrid, and any leadership change could affect the club’s direction, governance, and public strategy. As of the latest market data, traders assign about a 13.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting market sentiment expects Perez to remain in place through the deadline. The forecast is active from May 12, 2026, with resolution scheduled after the year-end cutoff, making this an event prediction closely watched by soccer and La Liga observers.",27944.577151000005,{"id":582,"title":583,"slug":584,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":585,"probability":264,"createdAt":586,"updatedAt":587,"resolutionDate":588,"description":589,"summary":590,"volume1wk":591,"featured":96},"34590","Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?","will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-colombias-election",[11,13,9,12,15,16],"2026-05-30T10:42:54.587Z","2026-05-30T10:35:19.386Z","2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).","Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? is a prediction market on whether Colombia’s next president will be elected without a runoff. The market tracks the first round of the Colombian presidential election scheduled for May 31, 2026, and resolves to Yes only if a candidate wins more than 50% of the valid votes. If no one clears that threshold, a second round is expected on June 21, 2026, and the market will resolve No. The forecast matters because Colombia’s electoral system often requires a runoff, so an outright first-round victory would signal unusually strong support for one candidate and a clear market shift in political sentiment. Current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders see a first-round win as relatively unlikely. The event prediction will be resolved using credible reporting, with official confirmation from Colombia’s National Civil Registry if needed. If the result is not known by December 31, 2026, the market also resolves No.",137519.23510599995,{"id":593,"title":594,"slug":595,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":596,"probability":443,"createdAt":597,"updatedAt":598,"resolutionDate":193,"description":599,"summary":600,"volume1wk":601,"featured":96},"45925","Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?","which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",[11,13,188,9],"2026-05-30T10:43:14.661Z","2026-05-30T10:35:15.680Z","General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fdadosabertos.tse.jus.br\u002F).","“Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?” is a prediction market tied to Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026. The event asks which candidate will move on to the runoff round if no one wins outright in the first round, or who wins the presidency directly if a first-round victory occurs. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome of Brazil’s presidential race and whether any listed candidate can secure one of the top two runoff spots. The market is relevant because Brazil is one of the world’s largest democracies, and the result will shape national politics, policy direction, and the broader election landscape in Latin America. Market sentiment currently implies a probability of 3.45%, reflecting the odds assigned by traders at the time of review. The market begins on September 18, 2025 and is set to resolve based on the official result after the election, with the deadline extending to June 30, 2027 if the outcome is not definitively known sooner. Resolution will follow credible reporting, or the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) if there is ambiguity.",19699.249727000002,{"id":603,"title":604,"slug":605,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":606,"probability":607,"createdAt":608,"updatedAt":609,"resolutionDate":303,"description":610,"summary":611,"volume1wk":612,"featured":96},"401427","Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?","colombia-election-1st-round-margin-of-victory",[9,11,15,12],3.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:03.463Z","2026-05-30T10:34:39.473Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory? is a prediction market on the size of the lead between the top two candidates in Colombia’s presidential election first round. The market forecasts the absolute difference in valid-vote percentages between first place and second place, using the official results from the Colombian government and National Civil Registry once the count is finalized. Voting is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes. The event remains open until the official vote total is confirmed, and a recount can delay resolution if one is initiated before the result is made official. Current market probability is about 3.3%, indicating traders see a very low chance of the lowest margin bracket relative to other outcomes. As an election forecast, the market reflects sentiment on how competitive the first round may be and whether the race produces a narrow or wider margin. It is relevant to global elections, Colombia politics, and election odds analysis.",48498.89307,{"id":614,"title":615,"slug":616,"category":8,"subcategory":617,"tags":618,"probability":621,"createdAt":622,"updatedAt":623,"resolutionDate":624,"description":625,"summary":626,"volume1wk":627,"featured":96},"504146","Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by...?","rodrigo-paz-out-as-president-of-bolivia-by","Bolivia",[617,619,9,620],"MAS","Movimiento al Socialismo",11,"2026-05-30T10:43:15.331Z","2026-05-30T10:34:23.182Z","2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rodrigo Paz ceases to be President of Bolivia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by...? is a prediction market in the Elections category tracking whether Rodrigo Paz ceases to serve as president of Bolivia before the market closes on 11:59 PM ET on July 1, 2026. The event resolves to Yes if Paz resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out the duties of the office during the market window; an official announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline can also trigger an immediate Yes resolution. If none of those outcomes occur by the end date, the market resolves to No.\n\nThis election forecast matters because it reflects political stability in Bolivia and trader sentiment around the durability of Paz’s presidency. The current market probability is about 11%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of him leaving office before the deadline, though prediction market odds can change as new official statements or credible reporting emerges. Tags such as Bolivia, Politics, MAS, and Movimiento al Socialismo reinforce the event’s focus on Bolivian political developments and election-related event prediction.",19071.426338999998,{"id":629,"title":630,"slug":631,"category":8,"subcategory":102,"tags":632,"probability":36,"createdAt":634,"updatedAt":635,"resolutionDate":636,"description":637,"summary":638,"volume1wk":639,"featured":96},"330634","Toronto Mayoral Election Winner","toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545",[102,9,633,12,11,340,14,88,17],"Toronto","2026-05-30T10:43:15.994Z","2026-05-30T10:33:54.822Z","2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z","The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.","Toronto Mayoral Election Winner is a prediction market on who will be elected the next mayor of Toronto in the 2026 municipal election, currently scheduled for October 26, 2026. The market tracks the expected outcome of the city’s main mayoral contest and resolves to the candidate who officially becomes mayor after the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the vote do not count toward resolution. If the result is still unclear by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis event matters because Toronto is Canada’s largest city and one of the most closely watched local elections in the country, making it a useful gauge of political momentum, candidate strength, and broader market sentiment. Traders are using this election forecast to price the odds of different mayoral outcomes well ahead of election day. The market is active and currently open, with trading beginning in early April 2026 and closing on the election date. No live probability is provided here, but the prediction market’s volume and liquidity indicate meaningful interest in the Toronto mayoral election winner odds and event prediction.",18653.274451999998,{"id":641,"title":642,"slug":643,"category":8,"subcategory":88,"tags":644,"probability":645,"createdAt":646,"updatedAt":647,"resolutionDate":303,"description":648,"summary":649,"volume1wk":650,"featured":96},"481843","Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?","colombia-election-who-will-advance-to-2nd-round",[88,9,15,11,12],0.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.773Z","2026-05-30T10:33:35.087Z","Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.\n\nIf any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.\n\nIf any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nIf the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).","Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round? is a prediction market focused on the first round of Colombia’s 2026 presidential election, scheduled for May 31, 2026. The market forecasts which candidate pair will move on to the June 21 runoff if no one wins outright with more than 50% of the valid votes. If a candidate secures a first-round majority, the event resolves to “1st Round Outright Winner”; if an unlisted pair advances, it resolves to “Other.”\n\nThe outcome matters because Colombia’s presidential contest will likely be decided through a two-round system, making the list of runoff contenders a key signal for election watchers, traders, and political analysts. Current market probability is about 10%, indicating limited expectation for this specific listed outcome at the moment, though market sentiment can change as vote totals, polling, and official reporting emerge.\n\nResolution depends on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from Colombia’s National Civil Registry by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",116527.85259000001,{"id":652,"title":653,"slug":654,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":655,"probability":18,"createdAt":656,"updatedAt":657,"resolutionDate":303,"description":658,"summary":659,"volume1wk":660,"featured":96},"400879","Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place","colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place",[9,11,15,12],"2026-05-30T10:43:01.400Z","2026-05-30T10:33:17.345Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).","Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place is a prediction market on which candidate will finish with the second-highest number of valid votes in Colombia’s first-round presidential election. The event is tied to the May 31, 2026 vote, with a possible runoff on June 21, 2026 if no contender clears 50% in round one. This matters because the second-place finisher helps define the shape of the runoff and signals how Colombia’s political field is splitting among the leading candidates. The market resolves using official results from Colombia’s National Civil Registry, with alphabetical tiebreak rules if candidates are tied on valid votes. Current market probability is about 5%, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to the listed outcome at this stage, though sentiment can shift as election day approaches and results become clearer. For users following election prediction markets, this event offers a focused forecast on the runner-up position rather than the overall winner, making it useful for tracking election odds, candidate momentum, and broader market expectations in Colombian politics.",57860.479974999995,{"id":662,"title":663,"slug":664,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":665,"probability":547,"createdAt":666,"updatedAt":667,"resolutionDate":180,"description":668,"summary":669,"volume1wk":670,"featured":96},"79988","2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner","2026-busan-mayoral-election-winner",[9,12,13,176,14,11,17],"2026-05-30T10:42:53.852Z","2026-05-30T10:33:17.265Z","The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Busan.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.","The 2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner prediction market asks traders to forecast which candidate will win Busan’s mayoral election, scheduled for June 3, 2026. The market is a straightforward event prediction on the outcome of a major South Korean local election, with resolution tied to the listed winner based on credible reporting or, if needed, official results from the National Election Commission. If the result is not known by January 31, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”\n\nThis election matters because Busan is one of South Korea’s largest cities, making the mayoral race an important political signal within the broader Elections and Politics category. Current market sentiment places the implied probability at about 22% for the leading outcome shown, suggesting traders see the race as competitive and still uncertain. As with other election forecast markets, the odds may shift as campaign coverage, polling, and reporting develop closer to election day. The event is active and remains a relevant South Korea election prediction market through the June 3 deadline.",150732.00507000004,{"id":672,"title":673,"slug":674,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":675,"probability":677,"createdAt":678,"updatedAt":679,"resolutionDate":680,"description":681,"summary":682,"volume1wk":683,"featured":96},"166780","Bulgaria Presidential Election","bulgaria-presidential-election",[12,13,14,11,9,676,88],"Bulgaria",42.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.346Z","2026-05-30T10:33:05.425Z","2026-11-30T00:00:00.000Z","Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg\u002F).","Bulgaria Presidential Election is a prediction market tracking the outcome of Bulgaria’s next presidential vote, expected in the fall of 2026. Traders are forecasting which candidate will win the presidency, including any potential second round, with the market resolving to the listed winner or to \"Other\" if the result is still unknown by December 31, 2027. The event matters because it reflects the direction of Bulgarian politics and provides a real-time view of market sentiment around one of the country’s key national elections. As of the latest data, the market implies a 42.5% probability for the current expected outcome, though that figure can change as new polling, campaign developments, and official reporting emerge. The market will be settled using credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission (CEC). With the market active from January 19, 2026 and scheduled through November 30, 2026, this election forecast offers a useful snapshot of election odds, trader expectations, and event prediction dynamics in the Bulgaria presidential election race.",16580.685985,{"id":685,"title":686,"slug":687,"category":8,"subcategory":118,"tags":688,"probability":689,"createdAt":690,"updatedAt":691,"resolutionDate":481,"description":692,"summary":693,"volume1wk":694,"featured":96},"73042","Will Trump be impeached by June 30?","will-trump-be-impeached-by-june-30",[118,103,117,9,263],0.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.098Z","2026-05-30T10:32:52.871Z","This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNeither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.","Will Trump be impeached by June 30? is an election prediction market tied to whether the US House of Representatives will approve one or more articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For this market, “Yes” means the House passes impeachment articles by simple majority vote; a Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office is not required. If that happens before the deadline, the market resolves accordingly using federal government sources, with credible reporting as a fallback.\n\nThe event matters because impeachment is a major congressional and political outcome that can reshape US politics and public debate. Traders in this prediction market are forecasting the expected outcome based on current market sentiment, legislative dynamics, and broader election-related developments. As of the latest pricing, the market implies about a 60% probability of impeachment by the deadline, suggesting slightly stronger odds for “Yes” than “No.”\n\nThis election forecast is active through the June 30 cutoff and remains relevant for readers tracking Trump, Congress, Senate-related political markets, and impeachment odds.",11003.723816000002,{"id":696,"title":697,"slug":698,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":699,"probability":700,"createdAt":701,"updatedAt":702,"resolutionDate":481,"description":703,"summary":704,"volume1wk":705,"featured":96},"108639","Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?","putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-june-30",[13,134,131,133,9,132],1.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:50.407Z","2026-05-30T10:32:49.618Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? is a prediction market in the ELECTIONS category that asks whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia at any point between market creation and the June 30 deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes if he resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from serving in office during the specified timeframe; otherwise it resolves to No. The market also allows an immediate Yes resolution if an official resignation or removal is announced before the end date, even if it takes effect later. This event matters because it tracks political stability in Russia and wider geopolitics involving Russia and Ukraine. As of the latest market data, traders price the probability at about 1.55%, indicating a very low expected outcome for a change in leadership before the deadline. Market sentiment therefore suggests the No side is strongly favored, though prediction markets can move as new reporting emerges. The event closes on June 30, 2026, making the timing of any official announcement or credible reporting especially important for resolution.",302961.7584209999,{"id":707,"title":708,"slug":709,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":710,"probability":136,"createdAt":714,"updatedAt":715,"resolutionDate":107,"description":716,"summary":717,"volume1wk":718,"featured":96},"64839","Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?","claudia-sheinbaum-out-as-president-of-mexico-by-june-30",[9,711,712,713],"Mexico","Mexico Cartel War","mencho","2026-05-30T10:43:13.809Z","2026-05-30T10:32:45.224Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...? is a prediction market focused on whether Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo will resign, be removed, or otherwise cease to serve as President of Mexico for any period before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if an official resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if the change takes effect later; otherwise it resolves to No. Because the primary resolution sources are Sheinbaum herself or the Government of Mexico, with credible reporting also considered, this is an event prediction tied closely to political developments in Mexico rather than routine election timing. The forecast is relevant for traders watching Mexico politics, the Mexico cartel war, and broader market sentiment around government stability. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating traders currently see virtually no chance of Sheinbaum leaving office by the specified date. The event remains active through the forecast window, making it a clear example of an election prediction market where odds can shift quickly if major political or security developments emerge.",20921.982493999996,{"id":720,"title":721,"slug":722,"category":8,"subcategory":12,"tags":723,"probability":724,"createdAt":725,"updatedAt":726,"resolutionDate":358,"description":727,"summary":728,"volume1wk":729,"featured":96},"452754","2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election Winner","2026-gyeongsangnam-province-gubernatorial-election-winner",[12,13,9,11,176,17,14],63,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.466Z","2026-05-30T10:32:42.319Z","The 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Gyeongsangnam Province.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.","The 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election Winner prediction market asks which candidate will win the June 3, 2026 election for Governor of Gyeongsangnam Province in South Korea. This election forecast matters because it tracks political control in one of the country’s major provincial races, and traders are using the market to gauge expected outcome and election sentiment ahead of the vote. The market will resolve to the listed candidate confirmed as the winner, based on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the South Korean National Election Commission. If the result is still not known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it will resolve to Other. Current market probability is about 63%, reflecting the latest odds implied by the prediction market. The event is active from May 12, 2026 through the election deadline on June 3, 2026, making it a focused event prediction for observers following South Korea, global elections, and election odds across international politics.",138389.29990999997,{"id":731,"title":732,"slug":733,"category":8,"subcategory":367,"tags":734,"probability":735,"createdAt":736,"updatedAt":737,"resolutionDate":371,"description":738,"summary":739,"volume1wk":740,"featured":96},"432501","Malta Parliamentary Election Winner","malta-parliamentary-election-winner",[367,11,12,9,17,88],5.55,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.297Z","2026-05-30T10:32:21.948Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives (parliament of Malta) as a result of the 2026 Maltese general election.\n\nIf the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nParties will primarily be ranked by the number of seats won. In the event of a tie, the party with the greater number of valid votes will rank higher. If a tie persists, the party whose name appears first in alphabetical order will rank higher. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election, not any coalition it may be a part of.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https:\u002F\u002Felectoral.gov.mt\u002F).","Malta Parliamentary Election Winner is a prediction market on which political party will win the most seats in Malta’s House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election. The event reflects the outcome of the national parliamentary vote scheduled for May 30, 2026, with the market set to resolve based on the party that finishes first in seats, not on any governing coalition it may join afterward. If seat totals are tied, the market rules use valid votes and then alphabetical order to determine the winner.\n\nThis election forecast matters because it is a direct measure of political power in Malta and a key signal for traders following global elections and election odds. Current market sentiment gives the leading party about a 5.55% probability, suggesting a low-confidence but active event prediction landscape. The market remains open through election day, and if official results are still unclear by March 31, 2027, it will resolve to Other. Resolution will rely on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results published by the Government of Malta and the Electoral Commission of Malta.",193722.62228100002,{"id":742,"title":743,"slug":744,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":745,"probability":136,"createdAt":749,"updatedAt":750,"resolutionDate":303,"description":751,"summary":752,"volume1wk":753,"featured":96},"449100","Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?","will-the-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by",[9,117,746,747,748],"Gov Shutdown","DHS","CBP","2026-05-30T10:43:16.584Z","2026-05-30T10:32:20.956Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...? is a political prediction market that tracks whether the U.S. Senate will approve a reconciliation bill by the stated deadline of 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if official U.S. government information confirms passage by that time; otherwise it resolves to No, with credible reporting also used as a supporting source. As an Elections category event in the Politics subcategory, it sits squarely within congressional lawmaking and the broader debate over government funding and related priorities, including issues tied to DHS and CBP. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome through market odds and shifting market sentiment, making it a useful event prediction for observers following Congress. At the time of the latest update, the market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of passage yet. That figure reflects current trader sentiment rather than a guarantee, and it may change as the deadline approaches and legislative negotiations continue.",18176.975368,{"id":755,"title":756,"slug":757,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":758,"probability":18,"createdAt":762,"updatedAt":763,"resolutionDate":764,"description":765,"summary":766,"volume1wk":767,"featured":96},"343919","B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner","bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner",[9,11,12,102,759,760,761,17,88],"BC","British Columbia","Conservative","2026-05-30T10:42:55.176Z","2026-05-30T10:32:19.309Z","2026-05-30T06:00:00.000Z","The 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election is currently scheduled to be held on May 30, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.","The B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner prediction market asks which candidate will become the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia in the party’s 2026 leadership election, scheduled for May 30, 2026. The market resolves to the candidate officially confirmed as leader after the vote, excluding any temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed beforehand. If the result is not known by April 30, 2027, the market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThis election forecast matters because party leadership contests can shape the direction of a major provincial political party in Canada and influence future election strategy, policy positioning, and internal party dynamics. Traders are pricing a relatively low current probability of 5% for the listed outcome, reflecting market sentiment around the expected winner at the time of the latest update. As a prediction market event, it combines election odds, event prediction, and real-time trader expectations based on available reporting and official party information.",129092.784928,{"id":769,"title":770,"slug":771,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":772,"probability":774,"createdAt":775,"updatedAt":776,"resolutionDate":481,"description":777,"summary":778,"volume1wk":779,"featured":96},"84590","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?","miguel-daz-canel-out-as-president-of-cuba-by-june-30",[9,773,132],"Cuba",15,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.199Z","2026-05-30T10:32:18.116Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? is a prediction market in the Elections \u002F Politics category that forecasts whether Cuba’s president will cease holding office at any point between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if Díaz-Canel resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops serving as president during that window; it also resolves to Yes if an official resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if the change takes effect later. Otherwise, the expected outcome is No.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks political stability and leadership succession in Cuba, with broader relevance for geopolitics and regional analysis. Traders are watching government signals and credible reporting to assess the forecast. Current market probability is about 15%, suggesting sentiment leans toward Díaz-Canel remaining in office through the end date, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges. The resolution source is the government of Cuba, with consensus credible reporting also acceptable.",11973.087347000002,{"id":781,"title":782,"slug":783,"category":8,"subcategory":103,"tags":784,"probability":787,"createdAt":788,"updatedAt":789,"resolutionDate":790,"description":791,"summary":792,"volume1wk":793,"featured":96},"507669","Trump approval rating on May 29?","trump-approval-rating-on-may-29",[103,785,9,786],"approvals","Approval",0.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.906Z","2026-05-30T10:31:57.673Z","2026-05-29T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 29, 2026.\n\nNote that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https:\u002F\u002Fwww.natesilver.net\u002Fp\u002Ftrump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.\n\nThe resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.","Trump approval rating on May 29? is an election prediction market focused on whether Donald Trump’s approval rating, as reported by Silver Bulletin’s approval rating aggregator, will land at the specified level on May 29, 2026. The market resolves using the green trend-line approval figure for that date, with one-decimal precision, and if Silver Bulletin is unavailable, RealClearPolitics becomes the fallback source. This makes the event a straightforward forecast of Trump’s public approval at a specific point in time rather than a broader election outcome.\n\nThe market matters because presidential approval ratings often shape political sentiment, media coverage, and expectations around elections and governing strength. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the expected outcome based on polling data, recent movement in approval trends, and broader market sentiment. The market opened on May 22, 2026 and is set to resolve on May 29, 2026. Current market probability is about 30%, indicating traders see the target outcome as possible but not the base case. As an election forecast, it combines approval polling, timing, and event prediction into a single odds-based view of Trump’s standing.",16197.385959,{"id":795,"title":796,"slug":797,"category":8,"subcategory":102,"tags":798,"probability":799,"createdAt":800,"updatedAt":801,"resolutionDate":107,"description":802,"summary":803,"volume1wk":804,"featured":96},"73213","Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?","will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027",[102,9,13,132],73.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:14.353Z","2026-05-30T10:31:57.259Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? is a Canada-focused election prediction market tracking whether any provincial government will formally set a vote on secession by December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is straightforward: the market resolves “Yes” if a province officially schedules a referendum on leaving Canada, whether the vote is binding or non-binding, and “No” if no such referendum is set before the deadline. This makes the event relevant to Canadian politics, geopolitics, and broader questions about provincial autonomy and national unity.\n\nThe market uses credible reporting as its resolution source, and traders are currently assigning a 73.5% probability to the “Yes” outcome, indicating stronger market sentiment that such a referendum could be scheduled within the timeframe. With a start date of November 5, 2025 and an end date of December 31, 2026, the event prediction remains active over an extended period, allowing odds to shift as provincial politics and public debate evolve. As a prediction market, it offers a real-time view of expectations around a potentially significant Canadian political development.",20227.57067600001,{"id":806,"title":807,"slug":808,"category":8,"subcategory":131,"tags":809,"probability":810,"createdAt":811,"updatedAt":812,"resolutionDate":481,"description":813,"summary":814,"volume1wk":815,"featured":96},"107727","Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?","zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-january-31-2026",[131,9,13,132,135],1.9,"2026-05-30T10:43:07.941Z","2026-05-30T10:31:53.282Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? is a prediction market on whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy will cease to be President of Ukraine at any point before the deadline. The market resolves to “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise stops serving as president for any period between market creation and June 30, 2026, ET. It can also resolve immediately on an official announcement of resignation or removal, even if the change takes effect later. Resolution relies primarily on official information from Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine, with credible reporting used if needed. This event matters because it tracks political stability in Ukraine, leadership continuity during the war, and the broader geopolitical implications of any transition. As of the latest data, traders are assigning a low probability of about 1.9% to the expected outcome, suggesting market sentiment favors Zelenskyy remaining in office through the end date. The market opened on December 17, 2025 and runs through the June 30, 2026 deadline.",32652.425961000004,{"id":817,"title":818,"slug":819,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":820,"probability":824,"createdAt":825,"updatedAt":826,"resolutionDate":827,"description":828,"summary":829,"volume1wk":830,"featured":96},"435390","Argentina Presidential Election Winner","argentina-presidential-election-winner",[9,821,822,11,12,823],"Argentina","Argentina Election","milei",48,"2026-05-30T10:43:18.389Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.582Z","2027-10-24T00:00:00.000Z","A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.electoral.gob.ar\u002Fnuevo\u002Findex.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.argentina.gob.ar\u002Fdine).","Argentina Presidential Election Winner is a prediction market on who will win Argentina’s next presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027. The market asks traders to forecast the eventual winner of the presidency, including any potential second round, and it will resolve to the listed candidate who is officially confirmed as the victor. If the result is not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to \"Other.\" As an elections and politics event, it draws attention to Argentina’s broader political outlook and the latest market sentiment around potential candidates, including Milei as reflected in the tags and search interest. Current market probability is about 48%, indicating a closely watched contest rather than a settled outcome. Resolution will rely on credible reporting and, if needed, official Argentine government sources such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral. This event prediction is relevant for observers tracking election odds, probability shifts, and the expected outcome in one of Latin America’s most important national races.",16557.08816,{"id":832,"title":833,"slug":834,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":835,"probability":836,"createdAt":837,"updatedAt":838,"resolutionDate":107,"description":813,"summary":839,"volume1wk":840,"featured":96},"34052","Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?","zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027",[9,131,132,13,33],18.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.756Z","2026-05-30T10:31:51.605Z","Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? is an election prediction market focused on whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy will cease to be President of Ukraine at any point before the market deadline on December 31, 2026. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the odds that Zelenskyy leaves office, whether through resignation, removal, or another official change in status, as defined by the market rules. An announced resignation or removal before the end date would resolve the market to Yes even if the change takes effect later. Official statements from Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine are the primary resolution sources, with credible reporting also potentially used. As of the latest update, the market implies a probability of about 18.5%, suggesting sentiment leans toward Zelenskyy remaining in office through the forecast period. Because the event sits in the Politics and Ukraine\u002FGeopolitics categories, it is closely watched as part of broader election forecasting and event prediction around leadership continuity during an ongoing period of regional and international significance.",51277.758543999946,{"id":842,"title":843,"slug":844,"category":8,"subcategory":103,"tags":845,"probability":136,"createdAt":847,"updatedAt":848,"resolutionDate":849,"description":850,"summary":851,"volume1wk":852,"featured":96},"52630","Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?","will-the-gop-use-nuclear-option-to-break-filibuster",[103,118,9,846,746,117],"Trump Presidency","2026-05-30T10:43:09.570Z","2026-05-30T10:31:49.436Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nConfirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.","Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...? is a prediction market on whether Senate Republicans will use a cloture vote to end debate in a way that falls below the usual three-fifths threshold in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves \"Yes\" if, by October 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, the Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture on any part of the legislative process with fewer than 60 yea votes. Confirmations do not count, since they are part of the Senate’s advice and consent role rather than the legislative process. This event matters because a successful move of this kind would signal a major shift in Senate procedure and could affect how the chamber handles legislation, confirmations, and any government shutdown-related negotiations. The event sits in the Elections category with Trump, Senate, Congress, Politics, and Trump Presidency context, and traders are watching for changes in market sentiment around a possible procedural break. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current expectation of a successful nuclear option move, though prediction market odds can change quickly as political conditions evolve.",28147.440836,{"id":854,"title":855,"slug":856,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":857,"probability":859,"createdAt":860,"updatedAt":861,"resolutionDate":303,"description":862,"summary":863,"volume1wk":864,"featured":96},"531050","Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?","ivn-cepeda-vote-share-in-2026-colombian-presidential-first-round-379",[11,9,12,15,858],"Vote Share",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.477Z","2026-05-30T10:31:42.744Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.\n\nIf the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round? is a prediction market focused on how many valid votes Iván Cepeda will win in Colombia’s first-round presidential election. The event matters because Colombia’s election is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a possible second round on June 21 if no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes. This market does not ask whether Cepeda wins the presidency outright; it forecasts his individual vote share in the first round, based solely on the official count, even if he is associated with a broader coalition. Traders are currently assigning a 2.65% probability to the listed outcome, reflecting market sentiment and the present odds in this election forecast. The market remains open through the first-round voting period, and if results are delayed or a recount is required before the tally is official, resolution can extend until the count is finalized. If the election outcome is still unknown by December 31, 2026 ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.",11899.587032,{"id":866,"title":867,"slug":868,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":869,"probability":136,"createdAt":871,"updatedAt":872,"resolutionDate":107,"description":873,"summary":874,"volume1wk":875,"featured":96},"140970","Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?","venezuela-presidential-election-scheduled-by",[9,13,870,12,132],"Venezuela","2026-05-30T10:43:08.167Z","2026-05-30T10:31:39.643Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTo qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030.\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...? is a prediction market on whether the next Venezuelan presidential election will be formally scheduled by the stated deadline. The event asks traders to forecast a simple yes-or-no outcome: whether an official date for the next presidential vote is announced by 11:59 PM ET on the market’s end date. To resolve “Yes,” the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030, based primarily on official information from the government of Venezuela, with credible reporting used if needed. \n\nThis event matters because the timing of a Venezuelan presidential election is a significant political and geopolitical signal, with implications for domestic governance, opposition strategy, and international attention on Venezuela. In this election prediction market, current market probability is 0%, suggesting no priced expectation of a near-term schedule announcement at the moment. The forecast period runs from January 3, 2026 through December 31, 2026, giving traders a full year to assess market sentiment and update odds as new developments emerge. As with other election forecast markets, the key question is not when the election will occur, but whether it is officially scheduled within the defined timeframe.",32286.029564999997,{"id":877,"title":878,"slug":879,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":880,"probability":882,"createdAt":883,"updatedAt":884,"resolutionDate":550,"description":885,"summary":886,"volume1wk":887,"featured":96},"485538","Makerfield by-election Winner","makerfield-by-election-winner",[9,881,11,545,505,17,12,503,546],"Main Elections",74,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.119Z","2026-05-30T10:31:32.628Z","A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wigan.gov.uk\u002F).","Makerfield by-election Winner is a prediction market on who will win the United Kingdom parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, expected in 2026 after the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. The event matters because it tracks the outcome of a UK Elections contest that could reflect local political sentiment and broader views on the governing parties. Traders are forecasting the candidate who will secure the Makerfield parliamentary seat, with the market resolving to \"Other\" if official results are not confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Based on current market probability, the leading outcome is priced at about 74%, though that remains subject to change as campaign coverage, candidate selection, and reporting develop. The market will resolve using credible reporting, with official election results from Wigan Council serving as the final source in case of ambiguity. For those following election prediction market odds, this listing offers a focused event prediction on a single seat in UK politics, with timing centered on the 2026 by-election window and final resolution by year-end if needed.",1004735.6340569996,{"id":889,"title":890,"slug":891,"category":8,"subcategory":88,"tags":892,"probability":893,"createdAt":894,"updatedAt":895,"resolutionDate":346,"description":896,"summary":897,"volume1wk":898,"featured":96},"482896","LA Mayoral Election: First Round Second Place?","la-mayoral-election-first-round-second-place",[88,9,339,335,12,30,341,342],23.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.510Z","2026-05-30T10:31:31.339Z","The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.","LA Mayoral Election: First Round Second Place? is a prediction market on which candidate will finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. The election is scheduled for June 2, 2026, in Los Angeles, California, and the market resolves to the named candidate who receives the second-most valid votes, using the stated ranking rules and alphabetical tiebreak if needed. If no definitive result is available by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to Other. This event matters because the first-round ordering can shape market sentiment around the mayoral race and the possibility of a runoff on November 3, 2026. Traders are forecasting the likely runner-up based on election odds, campaign dynamics, and available reporting, with current market probability around 23.5% for the listed outcome. As an election forecast and event prediction, it focuses on official results from the city and county of Los Angeles if there is any ambiguity.",11197.236686,{"id":900,"title":901,"slug":902,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":903,"probability":18,"createdAt":904,"updatedAt":905,"resolutionDate":906,"description":907,"summary":908,"volume1wk":909,"featured":96},"34582"," Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?","colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner",[13,12,11,9,15,16],"2026-05-30T10:42:46.454Z","2026-05-30T10:31:15.449Z","2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.\n\nIf the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).","Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner? is a prediction market on who will receive the most valid votes in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election. The market concerns the May 31, 2026 vote, with a possible second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes. In plain terms, traders are forecasting which candidate will lead the first-round count, not necessarily who ultimately becomes president.\n\nThis event matters because Colombia’s presidential race is a major World Elections contest and the first-round result can shape the runoff, coalition building, and broader political momentum. The market resolves using credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from Colombia’s National Civil Registry. If the first-round results are still unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.\n\nCurrent market probability suggests a 5% chance for the tracked outcome, indicating low expected support at present. As with any election forecast, market sentiment and odds can change quickly as polling, turnout expectations, and vote reporting evolve.",1259697.8105839998,{"id":911,"title":912,"slug":913,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":914,"probability":917,"createdAt":918,"updatedAt":919,"resolutionDate":242,"description":920,"summary":921,"volume1wk":922,"featured":96},"95248","Berlin State Election Winner","berlin-state-election-winner",[11,9,12,915,14,13,916,17],"Germany","German Elections",23.4,"2026-05-30T10:43:13.857Z","2026-05-30T10:31:13.987Z","Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https:\u002F\u002Fwww.berlin.de\u002Fwahlen\u002F)\n","Berlin State Election Winner is a prediction market on which political party will win the most seats in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus in the state election scheduled for September 20, 2026. The event forecast focuses on the party, or coalition if applicable, that emerges with the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin, rather than on vote share or governing coalition negotiations. If the election does not take place by December 31, 2026, the market is set to resolve to Other.\n\nThis election matters because Berlin is one of Germany’s most important state-level political arenas, and the result can signal broader market sentiment ahead of other German and European elections. Traders in this election prediction market are watching the expected outcome closely, with current market probability putting the leading outcome at 23.4%. That figure reflects existing odds and can change as campaign dynamics, polling, and reporting evolve.\n\nResolution will be based on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the Election Office of Berlin.",20839.398677,{"id":924,"title":925,"slug":926,"category":8,"subcategory":87,"tags":927,"probability":136,"createdAt":928,"updatedAt":929,"resolutionDate":930,"description":931,"summary":932,"volume1wk":933,"featured":96},"39836","French election called by...?","french-election-called-by",[87,11,9,13],"2026-05-30T10:42:49.971Z","2026-05-30T10:31:05.110Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the date of the next French parlimentary election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n","French election called by...? is an election prediction market tracking whether the French government will officially declare the date of the next parliamentary election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are predicting a Yes outcome only if the election date is announced before the deadline; the election itself does not need to be held within that timeframe for the market to resolve positively. This makes the event a clean test of official timing rather than election results. The market covers France and sits within the broader Politics and Global Elections categories, with resolution based primarily on official information from the government of France, supported by credible reporting if needed. As of the latest data, market probability is shown at 0%, though that should be read as current market sentiment rather than a guarantee. The event begins on August 26, 2025 and runs through year-end, giving traders several months to reassess odds as political developments unfold. For watchers of election forecast markets, this listing captures a specific timing question with clear resolution rules and measurable event prediction odds.",358491.063677,{"id":935,"title":936,"slug":937,"category":8,"subcategory":188,"tags":938,"probability":940,"createdAt":941,"updatedAt":942,"resolutionDate":943,"description":944,"summary":945,"volume1wk":946,"featured":96},"385500","Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?","will-the-workers-party-nominate-lula-for-president-of-brazil-by-august-15",[188,9,939,12,11],"lula",76,"2026-05-30T10:43:27.038Z","2026-05-30T10:30:51.286Z","2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z","The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? is a Brazil election prediction market focused on whether the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) will formally register Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) before the filing deadline. The forecast hinges on an official candidate registration application, or a qualifying coalition or party federation filing that names Lula, by August 15, 2026 at 7:00 PM Brasília time. An individual candidacy filing would not count for resolution. This matters because the filing deadline is a key step in the 2026 Brazil presidential election, which is scheduled for October 4, 2026. Traders in this election forecast are watching party procedure, coalition dynamics, and official TSE documentation to assess the expected outcome. Current market probability is around 76%, suggesting traders currently see a relatively high chance that the PT will nominate Lula on time, though the result still depends on the filing record and any credible reporting available at resolution.",9783.016889,{"id":948,"title":949,"slug":950,"category":8,"subcategory":176,"tags":951,"probability":952,"createdAt":953,"updatedAt":954,"resolutionDate":180,"description":955,"summary":956,"volume1wk":957,"featured":96},"410970","Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner","ulsan-mayoral-election-winner",[176,9,12,17,11,177],26.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:03.416Z","2026-05-30T10:30:48.422Z","The Ulsan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nec.go.kr\u002F).\n","Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner is a South Korea election prediction market focused on who will win the Ulsan mayoral election scheduled for June 3, 2026. The market will resolve to the candidate who receives the official victory in that race; interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors do not count. If the result is not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” Resolution is based on credible reporting, with final confirmation coming from the South Korean National Election Commission if there is any ambiguity. As an event prediction in the elections category, it reflects trader expectations about the expected outcome in a major local political contest. Current market probability stands at 26.5%, giving a snapshot of sentiment and odds without implying certainty. The market opened on April 23, 2026 and remains active ahead of election day, making it relevant for anyone tracking South Korea elections, mayoral races, and election forecast trends.",48805.11794500002,{"id":959,"title":960,"slug":961,"category":8,"subcategory":962,"tags":963,"probability":136,"createdAt":964,"updatedAt":965,"resolutionDate":510,"description":966,"summary":967,"volume1wk":968,"featured":96},"25391","Spain snap election called by...?","spain-snap-election-called-by","world affairs",[962,13,12,9,11],"2026-05-30T10:43:23.884Z","2026-05-30T10:30:46.941Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Spain snap election called by...? is a prediction market in the Elections category that asks whether the Government of Spain will schedule the next Spanish general election between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if an official election date is announced within that window; the actual date the election is set to occur does not affect the outcome. If no announcement is made before the deadline, it resolves to No. This makes the event a focused forecast on timing and political decision-making rather than on election results themselves.\n\nThe market matters for traders following Spanish politics and broader world affairs, since an early election call can signal changes in government strategy, coalition stability, or legislative pressure. Current market probability is shown at 0%, suggesting traders assign no active expectation of a qualifying announcement at present, though that can change as new reporting emerges. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Spain, with credible consensus reporting also eligible. As an election prediction market, it reflects market sentiment on whether Spain will move to a snap election announcement within the specified timeframe.",11602.034072999997,{"id":970,"title":971,"slug":972,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":973,"probability":975,"createdAt":976,"updatedAt":977,"resolutionDate":408,"description":978,"summary":979,"volume1wk":980,"featured":96},"106049","Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner","armenia-parliamentary-election-winner",[13,974,9,11,12,14,17],"Armenia",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.844Z","2026-05-30T10:30:46.100Z","Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.\n\nIf voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. \n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.elections.am\u002F).","Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner is a prediction market on which political party or coalition will win the most seats in Armenia’s National Assembly in the parliamentary election scheduled for June 7, 2026. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the expected outcome of the election based on which party finishes first in seat count, with the market resolving to the official result confirmed by the Armenian Central Election Commission if needed. If voting does not take place by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to Other. Current market sentiment is strongly in favor of one outcome, with an implied probability of 89%, though that figure can change as election coverage, polling, and political developments evolve. Because this is an election prediction market, the odds reflect trader expectations rather than a guarantee. The event matters for Armenia politics, global elections tracking, and world election analysis, especially for users following election forecasts and comparative market sentiment ahead of the vote.",66273.7367,{"id":982,"title":983,"slug":984,"category":8,"subcategory":13,"tags":985,"probability":136,"createdAt":989,"updatedAt":990,"resolutionDate":991,"description":992,"summary":993,"volume1wk":994,"featured":96},"189700","# of seats won by PT in 2026 Thailand Legislative Election?","of-seats-won-by-pt-in-2026-thailand-legislative-election",[13,986,9,987,12,11,988],"Thailand Election","Thailand-Cambodia","Thailand","2026-05-30T10:43:06.342Z","2026-05-30T10:30:33.871Z","2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z","The Thai House of Representatives was dissolved on December 12, 2025, triggering a snap legislative election within 45–60 days to elect members of the Thai House of Representatives (Sapha Phuthaen Ratsadon).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Pheu Thai Party (PT) in the Thai House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 Thai legislative election.\n\nThis market will resolve based solely on the number of seats won by the Pheu Thai Party (PT), and not on any coalition, alliance, or governing arrangement of which it may be a part.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Thai government, specifically the Thai Election Commission.","# of seats won by PT in 2026 Thailand Legislative Election? is a prediction market on how many seats the Pheu Thai Party (PT) will win in Thailand’s 2026 legislative election for the House of Representatives. The market focuses only on PT’s final seat total, not whether the party joins a coalition or forms part of a governing alliance. According to the event details, Thailand’s House was dissolved on December 12, 2025, setting up a snap election within 45–60 days, with the market active through the election period and a fallback resolution deadline of December 31, 2026, if results are not definitive sooner. The expected outcome will be determined from credible reporting, or the official Thai Election Commission results if there is any ambiguity. This election forecast matters because PT is one of Thailand’s central political parties, and the seat count will shape market sentiment around the country’s next legislature. Current probability data is listed at 0, so traders are not showing a priced consensus yet. As an election prediction market, the event reflects changing odds and expectations tied to Thailand politics, global elections, and the final seat distribution in the Thai House of Representatives.",36815.133342,{"id":996,"title":997,"slug":998,"category":8,"subcategory":999,"tags":1000,"probability":136,"createdAt":1005,"updatedAt":1006,"resolutionDate":1007,"description":1008,"summary":1009,"volume1wk":1010,"featured":96},"259277","SAVE Act becomes law by...?","save-act-becomes-law-by","voter ID",[999,9,1001,103,1002,1003,1004],"Proof of citizenship","voting","bill","Save America Act","2026-05-30T10:43:14.882Z","2026-05-30T10:30:33.621Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if any bill, measure, or resolution that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition for registering to vote in U.S. federal elections is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law, or is otherwise enacted into U.S. federal law, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nExamples of qualifying legislation include H.R. 22, the “SAVE Act,” and H.R. 7296, the “SAVE America Act.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","The prediction market \"SAVE Act becomes law by...?\" asks whether legislation requiring proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in U.S. federal elections will be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law, or otherwise enacted, by the specified deadline. The market covers measures such as H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, and H.R. 7296, the SAVE America Act, making it a closely watched elections and voter ID forecast with implications for federal voting rules and proof of citizenship requirements. Trading runs through April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, with the market’s resolution tied to official U.S. government sources or, if needed, credible reporting. Current market probability is 0%, which indicates traders are not pricing in passage at this time, though prediction market odds can change as legislative developments, committee action, or floor votes emerge. For analysts following election prediction markets, this event reflects market sentiment around voter ID policy, congressional action, and the likelihood of enactment before the deadline.",19497.28,{"id":1012,"title":1013,"slug":1014,"category":8,"subcategory":103,"tags":1015,"probability":1016,"createdAt":1017,"updatedAt":1018,"resolutionDate":481,"description":1019,"summary":1020,"volume1wk":1021,"featured":96},"261273","Trump out as President by June 30?","trump-out-as-president-by-june-30",[103,12,9],1.2,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.995Z","2026-05-30T10:30:27.784Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"Trump out as President by June 30?\" is a prediction market in the Elections category that asks whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if Trump resigns, is removed from office, or otherwise is no longer president for any period before the deadline. It also allows a Yes resolution if a resignation or removal is publicly announced before the end date, even if the change takes effect later. Temporary removal or impeachment without removal does not qualify, while a sustained invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 4 would count.\n\nThe event matters because it tracks political risk around presidential continuity and executive authority, making it a closely watched election forecast for traders following Trump and broader U.S. politics. Current market probability is about 1.2%, suggesting very low odds of a Yes outcome based on market sentiment. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting.",220747.43252000018,{"id":1023,"title":1024,"slug":1025,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":1026,"probability":1027,"createdAt":1028,"updatedAt":1029,"resolutionDate":346,"description":1030,"summary":1031,"volume1wk":1032,"featured":96},"485258","First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?","first-round-outright-winner-in-the-la-mayoral-election",[9,30,339,12,335,342],5,"2026-05-30T10:43:26.343Z","2026-05-30T10:30:11.619Z","The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.","First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? is a prediction market on whether any candidate will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election outright in the first round by securing more than 50% of valid votes. The first round is scheduled for June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. If no candidate clears the majority threshold, the market resolves to No. This event matters because a first-round victory would avoid a runoff and signal a clear mandate in one of the country’s largest cities. Traders are currently assigning a low probability of about 5% to an outright first-round win, suggesting market sentiment expects the race to advance to a second round. The market will resolve based on consensus credible reporting, or official results from the city and county of Los Angeles if there is any ambiguity. For election watchers and prediction market participants, this is a straightforward election forecast tied to Los Angeles politics, election odds, and the expected outcome of the LA mayoral election.",10097.085561999998,{"id":1034,"title":1035,"slug":1036,"category":8,"subcategory":133,"tags":1037,"probability":1038,"createdAt":1039,"updatedAt":1040,"resolutionDate":1041,"description":703,"summary":1042,"volume1wk":1043,"featured":96},"31195","Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","putin-out-before-2027",[133,132,131,9,13,134,33],9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.400Z","2026-05-30T10:30:01.110Z","2026-12-31T18:30:00.000Z","Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? is a prediction market tracking whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia at any point before the market closes on December 31, 2026 (ET). The event resolves “Yes” if Putin resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from serving in the role during the forecast window; otherwise it resolves “No.” Because an official announcement of resignation or removal can trigger an immediate resolution, the market is closely tied to credible reporting from Russian government sources and other reliable news outlets. \n\nAs an elections and geopolitics event, it reflects trader sentiment around Russian politics, the Ukraine conflict, and broader world affairs. The current market probability is about 9.5%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of this outcome, though it remains an active forecast rather than a certainty. The listing runs through the end of 2026, making timing a key factor for event prediction and odds monitoring.",242787.76216600023,1780676640833]