[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":279},["ShallowReactive",2],{"category-events-economy":3,"category-content-economy":278},[4,23,37,54,66,85,99,114,127,143,157,170,180,192,203,215,230,241,252,264],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":15,"createdAt":16,"updatedAt":17,"resolutionDate":18,"description":19,"summary":20,"volume1wk":21,"featured":22},"431848","Elon Musk Net Worth on May 31?","elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31-343","ECONOMY","Economy",[9,11,12,13,14],"Tech","Big Tech","Culture","Elon Musk",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.365Z","2026-05-30T10:38:54.933Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on May 31, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bloomberg.com\u002Fbillionaires\u002Fprofiles\u002Felon-r-musk\u002F?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.","Elon Musk Net Worth on May 31? is a prediction market in the Economy category that asks traders to forecast the value of Elon Musk’s net worth as of May 31, 2026. The market resolves using the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk profile, with the datapoint for April 30, 2026 used once finalized; if that source is unavailable, another credible source may be used. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket.\n\nThis event matters because Elon Musk is one of the most closely watched figures in tech and big business, and changes in his net worth can reflect broader market sentiment around Tesla, SpaceX, and other holdings tied to his wealth. The forecast is straightforward: participants are trading on which net worth bracket will be correct at the deadline. The market opened on April 29, 2026 and is scheduled to close on May 31, 2026. Current market probability is about 5%, indicating a low implied chance for the leading outcome at this time.",10773.507499,false,{"id":24,"title":25,"slug":26,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":27,"probability":30,"createdAt":31,"updatedAt":32,"resolutionDate":33,"description":34,"summary":35,"volume1wk":36,"featured":22},"488818","2nd largest company end of June?","2nd-largest-company-end-of-june-849",[9,11,28,29,12],"Business","Finance",5,"2026-05-30T10:43:00.064Z","2026-05-30T10:38:48.504Z","2026-06-30T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","“2nd largest company end of June?” is an economy prediction market asking which company will rank as the second-largest in the world by market capitalization at the June 30, 2026 market close. The forecast focuses on a specific end-of-month snapshot, with the final result resolved using a consensus of credible reporting. As a business, finance, and Big Tech event prediction, it draws attention to shifting market sentiment around the largest public companies and how traders are pricing in relative valuation changes over time. The market opened on May 16, 2026 and runs through June 30, 2026 at 16:00 UTC, giving participants a limited window to trade on the expected outcome. Current market probability is about 5%, indicating that traders see this outcome as unlikely but still possible. Because the event depends on market-cap rankings rather than company performance alone, it is closely watched by investors tracking tech, economy, and finance headlines. This prediction market is useful for following odds, probability, and broader sentiment around the global Big Tech leaderboard.",63807.336322,{"id":38,"title":39,"slug":40,"category":8,"subcategory":41,"tags":42,"probability":47,"createdAt":48,"updatedAt":49,"resolutionDate":50,"description":51,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":22},"287227","ECB Interest Rates: June 2026","ecb-interest-rates-june-2026","interest rates",[41,43,9,44,45,46],"Europe","Global Rates","Economic Policy","European Central Bank",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:54.307Z","2026-05-30T10:38:09.844Z","2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.ecb.europa.eu\u002Fpress\u002Fcalendars\u002Fmgcgc\u002Fhtml\u002Findex.en.html\n\nThe level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:\nhttps:\u002F\u002Fwww.ecb.europa.eu\u002Fstats\u002Fpolicy_and_exchange_rates\u002Fkey_ecb_interest_rates\u002Fhtml\u002Findex.en.html\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.\n\nIf no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.","ECB Interest Rates: June 2026 is a prediction market on how the European Central Bank will change the upper bound of the deposit facility rate after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting. The forecast focuses on the size of the move in basis points versus the rate level in place before the meeting, with any off-grid outcome rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution. If the ECB does not publish an interest rate decision or update by July 31, 2026, the market resolves to the “No change” bracket.\n\nThis economy and interest rates event matters because the ECB’s policy decision can shape borrowing costs, inflation expectations, and broader market sentiment across Europe and the global rates complex. Traders in the prediction market are currently assigning a 15% probability to the event’s tracked outcome, indicating relatively low odds while leaving room for changes in expectation as the meeting approaches. Resolution will rely on official ECB releases and the bank’s published interest rates page, making this a straightforward event prediction tied to one of Europe’s most closely watched economic policy announcements.",142377.00841,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":8,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":59,"createdAt":60,"updatedAt":61,"resolutionDate":62,"description":63,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":22},"385557","Largest Company end of May?","largest-company-end-of-may-167",[11,9,29,12,28],99.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.200Z","2026-05-30T10:37:43.438Z","2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Largest Company end of May? is a prediction market in the Economy category that asks which company will be the largest in the world by market capitalization at the close of May 31, 2026. The forecast resolves using a consensus of credible reporting, making it a straightforward event prediction tied to the global tech and business landscape. Because the market focuses on market cap rather than revenue or brand value, it reflects how traders expect the relative size of major public companies to stand at month-end. As of the latest update, market sentiment is heavily concentrated, with a reported probability of 99.95% for the current leading outcome. The event opens on April 17, 2026 and ends at 6:00 UTC on May 31, 2026, giving traders a short window to price in late-month moves across Big Tech and other large-cap names. Relevant tags include Tech, Economy, Finance, Big Tech, and Business, all of which point to the broader corporate and market-cap competition behind this forecast.",2345554.2487270003,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":70,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":18,"description":82,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":22},"432180","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31",[9,71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78],"close","Iran","U.S. x Iran","Oil","Strait of Hormuz","Hormuz","Geopolitics","Trump",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.280Z","2026-05-30T10:37:07.745Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe number of daily transit calls\u002Farrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? is an economy prediction market tracking whether IMF Portwatch will publish a daily “Arrivals of Ships” count for the Strait of Hormuz at or above the listed threshold at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the odds that ship traffic through this strategically important chokepoint will reach the specified level on at least one day during the resolution window. The Strait of Hormuz matters because it is a critical route for global shipping and oil flows, so changes in transit activity can reflect broader geopolitical and maritime risk. The market resolves using IMF Portwatch’s transit calls data, including container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels reported in its chart and downloadable files. Current market probability is about 11.5%, suggesting traders expect a relatively low chance of the threshold being met before the end date. This event prediction is especially relevant to geopolitics, Iran, U.S.-Iran tensions, oil, and shipping-related market sentiment.",952303.4898229997,{"id":86,"title":87,"slug":88,"category":8,"subcategory":89,"tags":90,"probability":92,"createdAt":93,"updatedAt":94,"resolutionDate":95,"description":96,"summary":97,"volume1wk":98,"featured":22},"287195","Bank of Japan Decision in June?","bank-of-japan-decision-in-june","Japan",[89,41,44,9,45,91],"World",1.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.983Z","2026-05-30T10:37:05.848Z","2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z","The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.boj.or.jp\u002Fen\u002Fmopo\u002Fmpmsche_minu\u002Findex.htm).\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.boj.or.jp\u002Fen\u002Fmopo\u002Fmpmsche_minu\u002Findex.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.\n","Bank of Japan Decision in June? is a prediction market asking traders to forecast how the Bank of Japan will change the upper bound of its short-term policy interest rate following the June 2026 Monetary Policy meeting. The market focuses on the official Statement on Monetary Policy, scheduled for release on June 16, 2026, and resolves to the size of any move in basis points versus the pre-meeting level. If the BoJ sets a rate change that falls between listed brackets, the result is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points, and if no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to “No change.”\n\nThis event matters because Bank of Japan policy is a key driver of Japan’s economy, global rates, and economic policy expectations. Current market probability is about 1.15%, suggesting traders see a relatively low chance of a rate move in the tracked direction, though prediction market odds can shift as new data and reporting emerge. The primary resolution source is the Bank of Japan’s official website, with credible news consensus allowed if needed. The forecast is closely watched by participants tracking Japan, interest rates, and broader monetary policy sentiment.",50332.10505,{"id":100,"title":101,"slug":102,"category":8,"subcategory":75,"tags":103,"probability":107,"createdAt":108,"updatedAt":109,"resolutionDate":110,"description":111,"summary":112,"volume1wk":113,"featured":22},"455867","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",[75,9,104,105,73,106,72,74,77],"Iran Ceasefire","Politics","ships",56,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.752Z","2026-05-30T10:36:40.524Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? is a prediction market on whether shipping activity through one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints will recover to standard levels before the end of July 2026. The forecasted outcome is based on IMF Portwatch data: the market resolves “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 60 on any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. If that threshold is not published in time, the market resolves “No.”\n\nThis economy and geopolitics event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for tankers, container ships, dry bulk cargo, and other vessels, making traffic levels a useful signal for regional stability and trade flow. Tags such as Iran, Oil, U.S. x Iran, and Iran Ceasefire highlight the broader political context traders are watching. Current market probability is about 56%, suggesting sentiment is slightly tilted toward normal traffic returning by the deadline, though the outcome remains uncertain and fully dependent on IMF Portwatch publications through July 31, 2026.",1175859.2980450026,{"id":115,"title":116,"slug":117,"category":8,"subcategory":45,"tags":118,"probability":120,"createdAt":121,"updatedAt":122,"resolutionDate":123,"description":124,"summary":125,"volume1wk":126,"featured":22},"48802","US recession by end of 2026?","us-recession-by-end-of-2026",[45,28,9,119],"Macro Graph",19.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.699Z","2026-05-30T10:34:36.931Z","2027-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:\n\n1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). \n\n2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nNote that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to \"Yes\". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to \"Yes\" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.\n\nThe resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bea.gov\u002Fdata\u002Fgdp\u002Fgross-domestic-product","US recession by end of 2026? is an economy prediction market tracking whether the United States will enter a recession before the end of 2026. The event resolves to “Yes” if either the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports two consecutive quarters of negative seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or if the NBER publicly announces that a recession occurred in the U.S. by the time the BEA releases its advance estimate for Q4 2026. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the odds that weak growth or an official NBER recession call will confirm a downturn. This matters because U.S. recession signals influence market sentiment across business, macro, and economic policy categories. The prediction market opened on 2025-09-29 and is scheduled to remain active until 2027-01-31, giving participants time to react to BEA GDP data and any NBER updates. Current market probability is about 19.5%, suggesting traders currently see recession as possible but not the base-case expected outcome.",27378.91629400001,{"id":128,"title":129,"slug":130,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":131,"probability":136,"createdAt":137,"updatedAt":138,"resolutionDate":139,"description":140,"summary":141,"volume1wk":142,"featured":22},"477898","May Inflation US - Monthly","may-inflation-us-monthly",[9,132,133,134,135],"Inflation","CPI","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","Macro Indicators",0.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:12.677Z","2026-05-30T10:34:25.739Z","2026-06-10T08:00:00.000Z","This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).\n\nThis market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fbls\u002Fnews-release\u002Fcpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fschedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.","May Inflation US - Monthly is a prediction market tracking the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the United States. The forecast centers on the May 2026 BLS inflation reading, which will be resolved using the official Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report released on June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Because the BLS reports CPI-U to one decimal point, the market outcome will be based on that published figure. As an economy and macro indicators event, it reflects trader expectations for near-term inflation pressure and helps summarize current market sentiment around the monthly economic forecast. At present, the market implies roughly a 60% probability for the current expected outcome, though that probability can change as new information arrives before the release date. This event is closely watched by traders, analysts, and anyone following inflation, CPI, and U.S. economic data, since the monthly reading can influence broader expectations for price trends and the direction of the economy. If the report is delayed, resolution may move to the next scheduled CPI release or use the most recent available figures.",22270.857474,{"id":144,"title":145,"slug":146,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":147,"probability":150,"createdAt":151,"updatedAt":152,"resolutionDate":153,"description":154,"summary":155,"volume1wk":156,"featured":22},"287166","Bank of England decision in June?","bank-of-england-decision-in-june-221",[9,44,45,148,149],"England","UK",97.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.157Z","2026-05-30T10:34:08.738Z","2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z","The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bankofengland.co.uk\u002Fmonetary-policy\u002Fupcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nIf the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","Bank of England decision in June? is a prediction market on the outcome of the Bank of England’s June 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which is scheduled to be announced on June 18, 2026. Traders are forecasting how many basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate will change from its prior level, with the market resolving to the relevant bracket based on the official Bank of England statement or credible reporting. If the rate move is not an exact displayed option, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The event matters because the Bank of England’s decision is a key signal for UK economic policy, global rates, and market sentiment around inflation and monetary tightening or easing. Current market probability is about 97.15%, indicating strong expectations for a specific outcome within this event prediction. The forecast runs from the market’s opening in March 2026 through the June 18 deadline, when the June policy announcement is expected to provide the final resolution.",11468.650419,{"id":158,"title":159,"slug":160,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":161,"probability":163,"createdAt":164,"updatedAt":165,"resolutionDate":166,"description":167,"summary":168,"volume1wk":169,"featured":22},"79041","Largest Company end of December 2026?","largest-company-end-of-december-2026",[9,28,29,162,11,12],"AI",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.329Z","2026-05-30T10:33:40.370Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Largest Company end of December 2026? is a prediction market on which public company will have the highest market capitalization on December 31, 2026, at market close. The event asks traders to forecast the expected outcome in global equities and Big Tech, with the resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting. As an economy and finance market, it reflects market sentiment about the relative scale of major businesses over time, including AI and technology leaders that may compete for the top spot. The market opens on November 12, 2025 and runs through the end-of-year 2026 deadline, giving participants a long horizon to assess shifts in valuation, earnings, product cycles, and broader business conditions. Current market probability is about 65%, suggesting traders see one outcome as favored, though not certain. Because the forecast depends on market cap at a specific date, the listing is especially relevant for observers tracking corporate leadership, tech dominance, and how prediction market odds change as the deadline approaches.",162751.277078,{"id":171,"title":172,"slug":173,"category":8,"subcategory":133,"tags":174,"probability":15,"createdAt":175,"updatedAt":176,"resolutionDate":139,"description":177,"summary":178,"volume1wk":179,"featured":22},"477999","May Inflation US - Annual","may-inflation-us-annual",[133,132,9,134,135],"2026-05-30T10:42:56.545Z","2026-05-30T10:32:21.094Z","This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\n\nThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fbls\u002Fnews-release\u002Fcpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fschedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.","May Inflation US - Annual is a prediction market tracking the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the 12-month period ending in May 2026, based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The forecast asks traders to estimate the official year-over-year inflation figure, measured before seasonal adjustment and resolved to the one-decimal-place value published in the monthly BLS CPI news release. This makes the event a closely watched macro indicators and economy forecast, since CPI remains one of the most important measures of price pressures in the U.S. economy. The market is scheduled to resolve when the BLS releases the May 2026 CPI data on June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, or later if the report is delayed under the market rules. Current market sentiment points to a low implied probability of 5%, indicating traders are assigning limited odds to the specific outcome currently offered in the market. As an inflation prediction market, this event reflects expectations around U.S. economic conditions, monthly CPI data, and the broader event prediction landscape for macroeconomic releases.",106033.161807,{"id":181,"title":182,"slug":183,"category":8,"subcategory":106,"tags":184,"probability":186,"createdAt":187,"updatedAt":188,"resolutionDate":166,"description":189,"summary":190,"volume1wk":191,"featured":22},"455875","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",[106,9,104,185,72,105,76,77,73,75],"transit",82.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:53.539Z","2026-05-30T10:32:19.893Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","\"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?\" is a prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz will recover to a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, as measured by IMF Portwatch. The event centers on daily ship arrivals in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints, where traffic includes container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. It matters because changes in Hormuz transit can signal shifts in geopolitical risk, Iran-related tensions, and broader shipping conditions affecting global trade. The market will resolve to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes the required 7-day average at or above 60 on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. The relevant forecast period runs from May 11, 2026 through the end of 2026. Current market probability is about 82.5%, suggesting traders expect a return to normal traffic levels, though that outcome is not guaranteed. As an economy prediction market in the ships subcategory, it reflects market sentiment around transit trends, odds, and event prediction based on official IMF Portwatch data.",157161.04153199997,{"id":193,"title":194,"slug":195,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":196,"probability":197,"createdAt":198,"updatedAt":199,"resolutionDate":33,"description":200,"summary":201,"volume1wk":202,"featured":22},"488841","3rd largest company end of June?","3rd-largest-company-end-of-june",[9,12,28,11,29],5.3,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.383Z","2026-05-30T10:32:00.694Z","This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"3rd largest company end of June?\" is an economy prediction market that asks which company will rank as the third-largest in the world by market capitalization at the June 30, 2026 market close. The event is resolved using a consensus of credible reporting, making the forecast tied to widely accepted public sources rather than a single data point. Because the outcome depends on shifting valuations across Big Tech, finance, and the broader business market, traders use this event prediction to gauge relative market strength and market sentiment around the world’s largest companies. As of the latest available pricing, the market implies about a 5.3% probability for the expected outcome. The active trading period begins on May 16, 2026 and runs through the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline. This prediction market is closely watched because changes in share prices, earnings, and sector rotation can quickly alter the odds for which company finishes third by market cap.",11913.578964,{"id":204,"title":205,"slug":206,"category":8,"subcategory":185,"tags":207,"probability":208,"createdAt":209,"updatedAt":210,"resolutionDate":211,"description":212,"summary":213,"volume1wk":214,"featured":22},"524097","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15",[185,72,74,9,77,73,106,75,76],7.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.055Z","2026-05-30T10:31:45.641Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? is a prediction market in the Economy category tracking whether ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz will reach a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals on or before June 15, 2026. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch transit calls data, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that are reported in the source dataset. In practical terms, traders are betting on whether maritime traffic in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints will recover to a level treated as “normal” by the market’s threshold. This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is closely tied to global oil flows, Iran-related geopolitics, and broader economic and shipping conditions. The market opened on May 26, 2026 and will resolve according to the first qualifying IMF Portwatch publication within the event window, or by the final date if no qualifying value appears. Current market probability is about 7.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but still possible before the deadline.",1537804.481213998,{"id":216,"title":217,"slug":218,"category":8,"subcategory":219,"tags":220,"probability":224,"createdAt":225,"updatedAt":226,"resolutionDate":18,"description":227,"summary":228,"volume1wk":229,"featured":22},"431398","Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?","will-usd-hit-iranian-rials-by-may-31","Exchange Rate",[219,221,222,72,9,223],"bank","USD","Middle East",2.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:14.172Z","2026-05-30T10:31:42.795Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or above the specified price for any day between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bonbast.com\u002Fgraph\u002Fusd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).\n\nA daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.\n\nRevisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bonbast.com\u002Fgraph\u002Fusd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.","Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31? is a prediction market on the U.S. dollar’s exchange rate against the Iranian rial, with traders forecasting whether the daily finalized free-market USD rate on Bonbast will reach or exceed the listed threshold at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026. The event matters because it tracks a volatile economy and exchange rate conditions in Iran, where currency moves can reflect broader market sentiment, inflation pressure, and regional uncertainty. Resolution is based on Bonbast’s published USD graph, which reports prices in Iranian toman; for this market, the level is interpreted in Iranian rials using the provided conversion. A daily figure counts as finalized once the next day’s data is released, and the market will settle to Yes if the threshold is met on any qualifying day before the deadline. Current market probability is about 2.05%, indicating traders assign low odds to the USD reaching that level by the end of May.",20538.963609000002,{"id":231,"title":232,"slug":233,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":234,"probability":235,"createdAt":236,"updatedAt":237,"resolutionDate":139,"description":238,"summary":239,"volume1wk":240,"featured":22},"478029","Price of Dozen Eggs in May?","price-of-dozen-eggs-in-may-835",[9,132,133,135,134],1.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:16.860Z","2026-05-30T10:31:36.826Z","This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for \"Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average\" lies when the May data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https:\u002F\u002Ffred.stlouisfed.org\u002Fseries\u002FAPU0000708111).\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The May release is presently scheduled for June 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.","Price of Dozen Eggs in May? is an economy prediction market tracking the U.S. average price of \"Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen)\" for the May data release. The forecast resolves to the bracket that matches the St. Louis Fed’s updated figure, which is based on the BLS CPI release and is scheduled to be published on June 10, 2026. If the May value is not available by the next scheduled update, the market will resolve using the latest reported month. This makes the event relevant for traders following inflation, CPI, and broader macro indicators, since egg prices are a closely watched component of household food costs. Current market probability is about 1.65%, suggesting the market expects a relatively low chance of the higher-priced outcome, though prediction market odds can shift as the release date approaches. Because the resolution uses third-decimal precision and ties go to the higher bracket, the final outcome depends on the exact St. Louis Fed data point rather than estimates or headlines.",17832.605214,{"id":242,"title":243,"slug":244,"category":8,"subcategory":132,"tags":245,"probability":246,"createdAt":247,"updatedAt":248,"resolutionDate":166,"description":249,"summary":250,"volume1wk":251,"featured":22},"80773","How high will inflation get in 2026?","how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026",[132,135,9,105],97.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:03.816Z","2026-05-30T10:31:33.769Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fbls\u002Fnews-release\u002Fcpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.","How high will inflation get in 2026? is an economy prediction market centered on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and whether inflation will rise above a listed threshold at any point during the 12-month periods ending in 2026. The market resolves using official monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI reports, with the final outcome determined after the December 2026 data is issued, or by January 31, 2027 if that report has not been released. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome for inflation over the year, not a specific monthly reading. This makes the event relevant to broader macro indicators, inflation expectations, and economic sentiment. Current market probability is very high at 97.65%, suggesting traders largely expect the threshold to be exceeded, though prediction market odds can change as new BLS data arrives. Because resolution depends on the official CPI news releases, this is a straightforward event prediction tied to one of the most closely watched measures of U.S. inflation.",47381.642692,{"id":253,"title":254,"slug":255,"category":8,"subcategory":44,"tags":256,"probability":258,"createdAt":259,"updatedAt":260,"resolutionDate":95,"description":261,"summary":262,"volume1wk":263,"featured":22},"301531","Bank of Brazil Decision in June?","bank-of-brazil-decision-in-june",[44,257,91,9,45],"Brazil",0.9,"2026-05-30T10:43:13.289Z","2026-05-30T10:31:19.224Z","This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bcb.gov.br\u002Fen\u002Fabout\u002Fbcb-calendar\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","Bank of Brazil Decision in June? is a prediction market on the Brazilian central bank’s June 2026 monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for June 15-16. The market forecasts the change in Brazil’s Selic rate target versus the level before the meeting, using the Bank of Brazil’s official post-meeting statement as the resolution source. If no statement is released by the end of the meeting window, the market resolves to the “No change” bracket. This makes it a closely watched event in global rates and economic policy, since the Selic rate is the key benchmark for Brazil’s interest-rate stance and broader inflation outlook. Current market probability is about 90%, suggesting traders broadly expect a specific outcome to be resolved from the June policy decision, though the exact bracket depends on the bank’s announcement. Market sentiment will likely track any guidance on Brazil’s monetary policy path, and the event remains relevant for traders following economy prediction markets, economic forecasts, and global rates odds.",21595.834655000002,{"id":265,"title":266,"slug":267,"category":8,"subcategory":91,"tags":268,"probability":271,"createdAt":272,"updatedAt":273,"resolutionDate":274,"description":275,"summary":276,"volume1wk":277,"featured":22},"301523","Bank of Canada decision in June?","bank-of-canada-decision-in-june",[91,44,269,9,270],"Canada","Rate",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:16.811Z","2026-05-30T10:31:15.457Z","2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bankofcanada.ca\u002Fcore-functions\u002Fmonetary-policy\u002Fkey-interest-rate\u002F#target-dates\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.","Bank of Canada decision in June? is a prediction market on the outcome of the Bank of Canada’s June 10, 2026 policy meeting, specifically the size of any change to the target for the overnight rate. Traders are forecasting whether the central bank will raise, cut, or leave rates unchanged, with the market resolving to the basis-point change versus the prior level. If the decision lands between listed brackets, the move is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution. If no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to “No change.”\n\nThis economy event matters because Bank of Canada interest-rate decisions influence inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and broader market sentiment in Canada and global rates markets. Current market probability is around 35%, giving a useful snapshot of the expected outcome without making it certain. The forecast is tied directly to the official Bank of Canada calendar and the post-meeting statement, which may determine resolution as soon as it is published. For prediction market participants, this is a straightforward event prediction on monetary policy and rate odds in the Canada economy category.",17906.978987000002,null,1780676624006]