[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1962},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$f1xuV3dWqv_u4fNuNoykE0qDcVlsEuBnUw4Qk_91ZHiY":3,"home-content-include":690},[4,24,46,61,81,97,114,126,145,166,182,193,207,217,229,241,252,267,278,293,307,321,334,349,366,380,394,405,416,433,445,457,472,482,496,507,523,539,551,565,579,595,612,623,636,650,663,679],{"id":5,"title":6,"slug":7,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":10,"probability":16,"createdAt":17,"updatedAt":18,"resolutionDate":19,"description":20,"summary":21,"volume1wk":22,"featured":23},"27830","2026 NBA Champion","2026-nba-champion","SPORTS","Sports",[9,11,12,13,14,15],"NBA","NBA Finals","Basketball","NBA Champion","2026 NBA Playoffs",42.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.283Z","2026-05-30T10:40:14.868Z","2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","This market is to predict the winner of the 2025–26 NBA Finals.","2026 NBA Champion is a sports prediction market asking traders to forecast which team will win the 2025–26 NBA Finals. As the NBA playoffs approach their final stage, the event focuses on the expected outcome of the league’s championship series and the team that will ultimately be crowned champion. The market is active from June 23, 2025 through July 1, 2026, giving participants a long window to update their forecast as team performance, injuries, and playoff results develop.\n\nCurrent market probability stands at 42.5%, reflecting where market sentiment and odds currently place the leading outcome, though that figure can change as new information enters the market. Because this is a prediction market tied to the NBA, NBA Finals, basketball, and the 2026 NBA Playoffs, it serves as a concise event prediction for anyone tracking sports odds or championship forecasts. Traders use the market to assess who is most likely to win the title, making it a useful reference point for both search engines and readers looking for a clear, data-driven summary of the 2026 NBA Champion event.",5755415.053347007,true,{"id":25,"title":26,"slug":27,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":30,"probability":39,"createdAt":40,"updatedAt":41,"resolutionDate":42,"description":43,"summary":44,"volume1wk":45,"featured":23},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[29,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","Politics",0,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by the specified deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is narrowly defined: the market resolves “Yes” only if both sides sign or publicly confirm a qualifying agreement that clearly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis. Temporary ceasefires, extensions, or statements of progress do not count.\n\nThis event matters because U.S.-Iran relations remain a major driver of geopolitical risk, regional stability, and broader market sentiment. Traders are watching for official statements, treaty language, or other credible confirmation from both governments that a durable agreement has been established. The resolution source prioritizes official information, with credible reporting used as a secondary reference.\n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating traders do not expect a permanent peace deal before the deadline at this time. As a geopolitical forecast, the market reflects ongoing uncertainty around U.S. x Iran diplomacy, ceasefire dynamics, and the likelihood of a definitive agreement rather than a temporary pause in hostilities.",55575856.145219125,{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":28,"subcategory":50,"tags":51,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":23},"372242","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?","trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by","Strait of Hormuz",[50,37,31,33,38,29,36,52,53],"Middle East","Hormuz",15.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.199Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.245Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nbcnews.com\u002Fworld\u002Firan\u002Flive-blog\u002Flive-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). \n\nStatements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., \"Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz\") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and\u002For its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.","Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether President Donald Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially announce that the United States has ended its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route in the Middle East, and the market resolves only if there is clear, definitive language that the blockade has been lifted or will be lifted by the deadline. Informal comments, leaks, or reports that merely imply normal shipping will not qualify.\n\nThe forecast matters because any change in US policy toward the Strait of Hormuz could affect regional tensions between the US and Iran, as well as broader market expectations around Middle East geopolitics. Current market probability sits at about 15.5%, suggesting traders assign a relatively low chance of a qualifying announcement before the deadline. As with most prediction market event prediction contracts, odds reflect evolving market sentiment rather than certainty, and traders are watching for any official statement from Trump or US authorities that meets the market’s resolution rules.",6602933.03823101,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":65,"subcategory":38,"tags":66,"probability":74,"createdAt":75,"updatedAt":76,"resolutionDate":77,"description":78,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":23},"34584","Colombia Presidential Election","colombia-presidential-election","ELECTIONS",[38,67,68,69,70,71,72,73],"Global Elections","Elections","World","World Elections","Colombia Election","Colombia","Main Election",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.106Z","2026-05-30T10:40:01.668Z","2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).","The Colombia Presidential Election prediction market tracks who will win Colombia’s 2026 presidential race, including the possibility of a second round if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. The first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a runoff, if needed, on June 21, 2026. If the result is still unresolved by December 31, 2026, the market is set to resolve to Other. This event matters because Colombia’s next president will shape national politics, policy direction, and the country’s response to major domestic and regional issues. The forecast is based on credible election reporting and, where necessary, the official results from Colombia’s National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil). As of the latest market data, traders assign roughly a 5% probability to the current leading outcome, signaling that market sentiment remains highly uncertain. For prediction market participants, this is a major election forecast with active odds, liquidity, and sustained interest across global elections and politics categories.",2471916.2878689985,{"id":82,"title":83,"slug":84,"category":8,"subcategory":85,"tags":86,"probability":90,"createdAt":91,"updatedAt":92,"resolutionDate":93,"description":94,"summary":95,"volume1wk":96,"featured":23},"30615","World Cup Winner ","world-cup-winner","Soccer",[85,9,87,88,89],"FIFA World Cup","2026 FIFA World Cup","Hide From New",16.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.213Z","2026-05-30T10:40:00.572Z","2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.\n\nIf the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Worldz Cup Winner is a sports prediction market on the 2026 FIFA World Cup that forecasts which national team will lift the trophy. The market resolves to the team officially declared the winner by FIFA, and it can also resolve early to “No” if the selected team is eliminated before winning. If the tournament is canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.” This makes the event a straightforward forecast tied to one of the biggest soccer competitions in the world.\n\nThe market is active ahead of the tournament, which is scheduled to run through July 20, 2026, and it has drawn strong trading interest from prediction market participants watching team strength, bracket paths, and tournament form. Current market probability sits at 16.75%, indicating that traders see a meaningful but far from certain chance for the implied leading outcome. As with any event prediction, odds and market sentiment may shift quickly as the World Cup approaches and match results change the outlook.",136166376.91191706,{"id":98,"title":99,"slug":100,"category":101,"subcategory":38,"tags":102,"probability":107,"createdAt":108,"updatedAt":109,"resolutionDate":110,"description":111,"summary":112,"volume1wk":113,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028","POLITICS",[38,103,68,70,67,104,105,106],"US Election","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 is a political prediction market tracking who will win and accept the Republican Party’s nomination for U.S. president in 2028. The market resolves to Yes if the named individual becomes the official Republican nominee, based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources; if not, it resolves to No. If the party replaces its nominee before Election Day, that change does not alter the market’s resolution, which makes the event prediction especially focused on the formal nomination outcome rather than later campaign adjustments. This forecast matters because the Republican nominee will shape the early direction of the 2028 U.S. election cycle, including party positioning, primary dynamics, and broader market sentiment around the race. The prediction market is active from July 11, 2025 through November 7, 2028, giving traders a long window to assess odds as the nomination process develops. Current market probability stands at 2.75%, suggesting the market expects this outcome to remain relatively unlikely at present, though probabilities can shift with new political developments, endorsements, debates, and primary results.",9249335.794150999,{"id":115,"title":116,"slug":117,"category":101,"subcategory":38,"tags":118,"probability":39,"createdAt":120,"updatedAt":121,"resolutionDate":122,"description":123,"summary":124,"volume1wk":125,"featured":23},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[38,33,29,119,31,36,37],"Vance","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? is a political prediction market asking whether there will be an in-person diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed deadline, 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes only if the meeting is deliberate, authorized, and publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting; remote calls, informal contact, and chance encounters do not count. This makes the event a focused test of US-Iran diplomatic engagement rather than broader geopolitical signaling. Market sentiment in this prediction market has been heavily one-sided, with the current probability at 0%, suggesting traders see little expectation of a qualifying meeting before the end date. Because the contract includes indirect meetings through approved mediators as valid, the event prediction also reflects how negotiations may unfold beyond direct face-to-face talks. As a politics and geopolitics market, it is closely watched for signals about Iran ceasefire dynamics, U.S. foreign policy, and broader regional diplomacy.",2654417.6848280015,{"id":127,"title":128,"slug":129,"category":130,"subcategory":131,"tags":132,"probability":138,"createdAt":139,"updatedAt":140,"resolutionDate":141,"description":142,"summary":143,"volume1wk":144,"featured":23},"101772","Fed Decision in June?","fed-decision-in-june-825","FINANCE","Economic Policy",[131,133,134,135,38,136,137],"Jerome Powell","Fed Rates","Fed","Economy","fomc",0.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.783Z","2026-05-30T10:39:31.611Z","2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z","The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut\u002Fincrease of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Ffomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fmonetarypolicy\u002Fopenmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.\n","Fed Decision in June? is a finance prediction market tracking whether the Federal Reserve will change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. The forecast is based on the size of the rate move versus the level in place before the June 2026 meeting, with changes rounded to the nearest 25 basis points if the Fed announces an amount not listed in the market. Resolution depends on the FOMC statement or official Federal Reserve rate publication, and the market may resolve as soon as the June meeting statement is released. If no statement is issued by the end date, the market resolves to “No change.”\n\nAs of the latest update, traders are assigning about a 75% probability to this event outcome, reflecting market sentiment around the Fed rates decision, Jerome Powell, and broader economic policy expectations. The event is relevant for anyone following monetary policy, inflation signals, and the direction of U.S. interest rates.",11018139.856811013,{"id":146,"title":147,"slug":148,"category":130,"subcategory":149,"tags":150,"probability":159,"createdAt":160,"updatedAt":161,"resolutionDate":162,"description":163,"summary":164,"volume1wk":165,"featured":23},"500753","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","Finance",[149,151,152,153,154,155,156,157,158],"Privates","llm","anthropic","Dario Amodei","Tech","Claude","Big Tech","AI",9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.493Z","2026-05-30T10:39:17.878Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? is a finance prediction market tracking whether Anthropic’s private company valuation will reach or exceed the listed threshold by the end of 2026. The market resolves based on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price data, with daily updates published for trading days only, and it can also account for an IPO, direct listing, or other public-market valuation signals if those occur before the deadline. In plain terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome for Anthropic’s valuation using private-market and, if applicable, public-market data. The event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched AI companies, alongside references in the market to Claude, Dario Amodei, and the broader private tech and Big Tech landscape. Current market probability is about 9.5%, suggesting sentiment leans toward the valuation not reaching the target, though prediction market odds can change as new data arrives. The market starts on May 19, 2026 and is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027, with the resolution window extending briefly if final NPM data is delayed.",576307.674421,{"id":167,"title":168,"slug":169,"category":130,"subcategory":149,"tags":170,"probability":39,"createdAt":177,"updatedAt":178,"resolutionDate":179,"description":168,"summary":180,"volume1wk":181,"featured":23},"415443","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-may-2026",[149,171,172,89,173,174,175,176],"Monthly","Hit Price","Finance Updown","Pyth Finance","Commodities","Oil","2026-05-30T10:42:43.693Z","2026-05-30T10:38:59.671Z","2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z","What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026? is a finance prediction market focused on the monthly price range of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Traders are forecasting which price level WTI will reach during the May 2026 contract window, making this an event prediction tied to commodity markets and oil price volatility. The market opens on April 25, 2026 and resolves by May 31, 2026, so the outcome depends on where WTI trades before the end of the month. This type of forecast matters because crude oil prices influence energy markets, inflation expectations, transport costs, and broader financial sentiment. Market participants use the prediction market to express views on supply, demand, geopolitics, and macroeconomic conditions affecting oil. Current market data shows substantial activity, with strong volume and liquidity, indicating meaningful trader interest, but no probability figure is available here to quantify the odds. As a result, the listing reflects an active commodity forecast rather than a guaranteed price target.",12887084.736748997,{"id":183,"title":184,"slug":185,"category":101,"subcategory":38,"tags":186,"probability":39,"createdAt":187,"updatedAt":188,"resolutionDate":189,"description":190,"summary":191,"volume1wk":192,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[38,37,36,29],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace by the listed deadline of May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is focused on a broad suspension or cancellation of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iranian airspace, or a major Iranian airspace region, and excludes disruptions caused solely by weather. To qualify, the event must involve a general closure affecting commercial aviation, with examples including major restrictions at airports such as Imam Khomeini International Airport, Mehrabad, Mashhad, Shiraz, or Isfahan. This event matters because Iranian airspace decisions can affect regional aviation, U.S. x Iran geopolitics, and broader Middle East market sentiment. Traders in the prediction market are weighing the odds based on official aviation notices and credible reporting, with current market probability near 0%, indicating a low expected outcome at present. The market’s resolution will depend on whether Iran’s aviation authorities or reliable news sources confirm a qualifying closure before the deadline.",6620506.11378,{"id":194,"title":195,"slug":196,"category":65,"subcategory":103,"tags":197,"probability":200,"createdAt":201,"updatedAt":202,"resolutionDate":203,"description":204,"summary":205,"volume1wk":206,"featured":23},"32225","Which party will win the House in 2026?","which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",[103,38,198,70,68,67,104,199,106,73],"Midterms","Parent For Derivative",null,"2026-05-30T10:42:50.365Z","2026-05-30T10:38:10.388Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nHouse control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nIf the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and\u002For state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.","Which party will win the House in 2026? is a U.S. election prediction market focused on control of the House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The forecast asks traders to assess which party will hold a majority of voting members, with the market using credible reporting and, if needed, final election certification or the House Speaker selection to determine the result. If the Speaker belongs to a listed party, that affiliation will guide resolution; otherwise the outcome resolves to Other. This makes the event important not only for election watchers, but also for anyone tracking the balance of power in Congress, the broader U.S. political landscape, and 2026 election odds. The market is active from July 11, 2025 through election day, and it has drawn strong interest, with significant liquidity and open interest indicating meaningful market sentiment. While no single probability figure is provided here, traders are actively pricing the expected outcome through the prediction market, making it a useful gauge of House control forecasts ahead of the 2026 U.S. House elections.",311040.33982799994,{"id":208,"title":209,"slug":210,"category":28,"subcategory":38,"tags":211,"probability":39,"createdAt":212,"updatedAt":213,"resolutionDate":200,"description":214,"summary":215,"volume1wk":216,"featured":23},"517606","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",[38,37,33,29,36],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.017Z","2026-05-30T10:38:09.490Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:\n\n1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated\u002Ftime-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.\n\n2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.\n\nStatements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.\n\nThe following would qualify:\n- President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”\n- An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”\n- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”\n- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.\n\nThe following would not qualify:\n- Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.\n- Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached\n- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.\n\n\nAn overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. ","US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the U.S. government will officially announce a continuation of the ceasefire with Iran, or a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic deal that keeps the truce in place. The market resolves to Yes only if there is a qualifying public U.S. announcement by the specified deadline; statements that simply say the ceasefire is holding or that talks are ongoing do not count. In other words, traders are forecasting whether Washington will formally extend or renew the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire arrangement rather than merely discuss de-escalation. This event matters because any official extension or successor agreement would be a notable signal in U.S.-Iran relations, with implications for military risk, regional stability, and diplomacy in the Middle East. The market opened on May 23, 2026, and resolution is tied to the announced cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on the target date. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a qualifying announcement at this time, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as official statements or credible reporting emerge.",8902186.761979992,{"id":218,"title":219,"slug":220,"category":65,"subcategory":70,"tags":221,"probability":223,"createdAt":224,"updatedAt":225,"resolutionDate":110,"description":226,"summary":227,"volume1wk":228,"featured":23},"31552","Presidential Election Winner 2028","presidential-election-winner-2028",[70,67,103,68,38,104,222,106,73],"President",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.733Z","2026-05-30T10:38:06.128Z","The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.","Presidential Election Winner 2028 is a prediction market on who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election. The forecast tracks the expected outcome of the main US election and will resolve to the person who is elected president, or to “No” if the market’s conditions are not met. The race is scheduled for November 7, 2028, with a final resolution backstop tied to the January 20, 2029 inauguration date if AP, Fox News, and NBC have not all called the race for the same candidate by then. As a result, this event focuses not just on election-night results, but also on the official certification path that determines how the market settles. Current market probability stands at about 65%, indicating traders are assigning a meaningful but far from certain chance to the expected outcome. For followers of US election odds, political forecasting, and event prediction, this market reflects broader market sentiment around the 2028 presidential contest in the United States.",12762950.039931998,{"id":230,"title":231,"slug":232,"category":101,"subcategory":233,"tags":234,"probability":235,"createdAt":236,"updatedAt":237,"resolutionDate":42,"description":238,"summary":239,"volume1wk":240,"featured":23},"219798","Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?","romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by","Romania",[233,69,38],98.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:08.527Z","2026-05-30T10:37:40.410Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Romanian PM Bolojan out by...? is a political prediction market on whether Ilie Bolojan will cease to be Prime Minister of Romania at any point before the market’s end date of December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Bolojan resigns or is removed from office, even if the change takes effect after an announcement is made before the deadline. If he remains in office throughout the full period, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because it tracks stability in Romania’s government and the potential for leadership change in a key EU and NATO member state. The resolution will rely primarily on official information from Ilie Bolojan and the Romanian government, with credible reporting also considered if needed. Current market probability is 98.25%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect the outcome to be “Yes.”\n\nAs a political forecast, this event reflects strong market sentiment around a possible resignation or dismissal before year-end, and it is closely followed by traders watching Romania’s domestic politics and leadership risk.",30690.855601000025,{"id":242,"title":243,"slug":244,"category":28,"subcategory":52,"tags":245,"probability":246,"createdAt":247,"updatedAt":248,"resolutionDate":189,"description":249,"summary":250,"volume1wk":251,"featured":23},"429456","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945",[52,33,36,37,29],3.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.765Z","2026-05-30T10:37:12.706Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market in the Middle East focused on whether Iran will publicly commit to ending all uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge by the deadline, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; a temporary commitment or a pledge tied to a broader peace process also counts. By contrast, mere limits on enrichment levels do not qualify, which makes the wording of any announcement critical to the event prediction.\n\nThis market matters because uranium enrichment is central to U.S.-Iran tensions, regional security, and wider nonproliferation efforts. As a prediction market, it reflects trader sentiment on the odds of a diplomatic breakthrough before the end date. The current market probability is about 3.1%, suggesting traders see a Yes outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. The market’s resolution will depend on credible reporting and any official Iranian statement made before the deadline.",773488.0177810004,{"id":253,"title":254,"slug":255,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":256,"probability":261,"createdAt":262,"updatedAt":263,"resolutionDate":189,"description":264,"summary":265,"volume1wk":266,"featured":23},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[29,257,258,33,31,50,259,37,38,36,260],"Sanctions","toll","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.","\"What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the May 31, 2026 deadline. The event resolves \"Yes\" only if the U.S. publicly announces explicit acceptance of Iran’s right to continue enriching uranium, or if that position is formally included in a treaty or deal with Iran. General negotiations, openness, or non-definitive statements do not count. This matters because uranium enrichment remains a central issue in U.S.-Iran relations, sanctions policy, and any broader ceasefire or diplomatic agreement involving the two countries. Traders are currently assigning about an 11.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting the market expects a low chance of formal U.S. agreement before the end date. As a prediction market, the listing reflects current market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around a high-stakes foreign policy decision.",3880525.7414259994,{"id":268,"title":269,"slug":270,"category":28,"subcategory":29,"tags":271,"probability":272,"createdAt":273,"updatedAt":274,"resolutionDate":200,"description":275,"summary":276,"volume1wk":277,"featured":23},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[29,38,33,37],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran ceasefire continues through...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying US kinetic military action on Iranian soil is officially confirmed by the US government or established by overwhelming credible reporting before the resolution date. A qualifying action is narrowly defined as aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact Iranian territory; other forms of conflict, including artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks, do not count under the rules. The event matters because it tracks the durability of a fragile ceasefire in a high-stakes geopolitical conflict and helps summarize market sentiment around escalation risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting the expected outcome based on developments in US-Iran relations and conflict reporting. The market opened on May 20, 2026, and remains open for one additional day after the listed end date to allow time for confirmation. Current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is overwhelmingly pricing in that the ceasefire will continue through the resolution window, though odds can still change if new reporting emerges.",25312735.30568604,{"id":279,"title":280,"slug":281,"category":282,"subcategory":283,"tags":284,"probability":287,"createdAt":288,"updatedAt":289,"resolutionDate":57,"description":290,"summary":291,"volume1wk":292,"featured":23},"488817","Ebola case in the US by June 30?","ebola-case-in-the-us-by-june-30","WEATHER","Hantavirus",[283,285,286],"Weather","Ebola",35.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:05.245Z","2026-05-30T10:36:49.039Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Ebola case in the US by June 30? is a prediction market on whether a confirmed Ebola infection will be reported in the territory of the United States before the June 30, 2026 deadline. The market resolves to “Yes” if an active laboratory-confirmed Ebola case is identified in U.S. territory between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves to “No.” Official government information, such as CDC reporting, is the primary resolution source, although overwhelming credible reporting can also determine the outcome. This event matters because a confirmed U.S. Ebola case would be a significant public health development and a major news event for traders following disease surveillance and outbreak risk. Current market probability is about 35.5%, suggesting traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of the expected outcome. As a weather-category prediction market with “Hantavirus” and “Ebola” tags, it is also relevant to broader event prediction and risk-monitoring searches. The forecast focuses on confirmation, not suspected exposure, so the key question is whether an official or widely reported case appears before the end date.",41114.851217,{"id":294,"title":295,"slug":296,"category":28,"subcategory":297,"tags":298,"probability":301,"createdAt":302,"updatedAt":303,"resolutionDate":57,"description":304,"summary":305,"volume1wk":306,"featured":23},"375597","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june","Macro Geopolitics",[297,53,176,36,299,50,136,300,29,37],"ships","transit",33.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.781Z","2026-05-30T10:36:44.374Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints will recover to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch data for “Arrivals of Ships” in the Strait of Hormuz, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. The market will resolve Yes if that threshold is published on any date between market creation and June 30, 2026; otherwise it will resolve No. Because the strait is central to global oil flows and broader U.S.-Iran tensions, traders are watching it as a macro geopolitics event prediction with potential implications for energy markets and regional risk sentiment. Current market probability is about 33.5%, suggesting traders see a return to normal traffic as possible but not the base case. The event starts on April 13, 2026 and runs through the end of June, with resolution tied directly to IMF Portwatch publications and their revision rules.",3407371.884199001,{"id":308,"title":309,"slug":310,"category":311,"subcategory":158,"tags":312,"probability":315,"createdAt":316,"updatedAt":317,"resolutionDate":57,"description":318,"summary":319,"volume1wk":320,"featured":23},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712","TECH",[158,155,157,136,313,314,149],"DeepSeek","Business",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.619Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Largest Company end of June? is a technology prediction market asking which company will be the world’s largest by market capitalization at the June 30, 2026 market close. The forecast focuses on a single outcome: identifying the top-valued public company based on credible reporting at the deadline, rather than projecting long-term business performance. Because market cap rankings can shift quickly with earnings, AI sentiment, and broader Big Tech moves, the event draws interest from traders tracking technology, AI, business, and finance trends.\n\nAs of the latest market data, the probability for this outcome is around 89%, indicating strong market sentiment behind the leading expected result, though prediction market odds can still change before resolution. The market opened on October 10, 2025 and resolves on June 30, 2026, making it a medium-term event prediction with a clear end date. Related keywords such as largest company, technology forecast, and technology probability reflect the market’s focus on Big Tech competition and market-cap leadership.",2205699.1277590003,{"id":322,"title":323,"slug":324,"category":65,"subcategory":103,"tags":325,"probability":328,"createdAt":329,"updatedAt":330,"resolutionDate":203,"description":331,"summary":332,"volume1wk":333,"featured":23},"57650","Maine Senate Election Winner","maine-senate-election-winner",[103,38,198,68,326,327],"Senate midterms","Maine Midterm",69,"2026-05-30T10:43:04.717Z","2026-05-30T10:35:12.352Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.\n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.\n\nCandidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.","Maine Senate Election Winner is an election prediction market focused on the outcome of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Traders are forecasting which candidate will be declared the winner, with the market resolving to the candidate called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three sources agree; if they do not, official certification will determine the result. The forecast reflects a classic U.S. election event in the Elections category, with relevance for Senate midterms, Maine politics, and broader market sentiment around the state’s general election. Current market probability places the leading outcome at about 69%, indicating traders see that result as favored but not assured. The event is active now and runs through the election period, with a scheduled end date of November 3, 2026. As with any election odds market, the expected outcome may change as campaigns develop, polling shifts, and new information affects trader expectations. This listing is useful for tracking the election forecast, probability, and live market sentiment around the Maine Senate race.",42700.06554700003,{"id":335,"title":336,"slug":337,"category":311,"subcategory":149,"tags":338,"probability":343,"createdAt":344,"updatedAt":345,"resolutionDate":162,"description":346,"summary":347,"volume1wk":348,"featured":23},"500775","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?","will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31",[149,151,152,155,157,158,339,340,341,342],"chatgpt","sam altman","OpenAI","OpenAI IPO",6.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:56.965Z","2026-05-30T10:34:16.260Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. \n\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? is a tech finance prediction market focused on whether OpenAI’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed the listed threshold by the end of 2026. The event is resolved using Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) price data, with the outcome turning on whether OpenAI’s reported private valuation hits the target on any trading day between market creation and December 31, 2026. If OpenAI goes public before then, the market also factors in the IPO or direct listing price and, afterward, public market capitalization based on official trading data and share counts. This forecast matters because OpenAI is one of the most closely watched AI companies, and its valuation reflects broader market sentiment around artificial intelligence, large language models, and the tech sector. As of the latest market data, traders assign about a 6.5% probability to a yes outcome, suggesting relatively low odds that the threshold will be reached within the timeframe. The market opens on May 19, 2026 and is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027, with a possible extension if required by delayed NPM reporting.",98053.93702400001,{"id":350,"title":351,"slug":352,"category":130,"subcategory":155,"tags":353,"probability":359,"createdAt":360,"updatedAt":361,"resolutionDate":362,"description":363,"summary":364,"volume1wk":365,"featured":23},"102007","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",[155,157,354,355,356,357,358],"Elon Musk","IPO","SpaceX","IPOs","Climate & Science",98.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.312Z","2026-05-30T10:34:08.685Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? is a finance prediction market asking whether SpaceX’s official market capitalization on its first trading day will finish above the threshold named in the title. The event is tied to a potential SpaceX IPO and will resolve “Yes” only if the company’s closing price on day one, multiplied by outstanding shares, produces a market cap above that level; otherwise it resolves “No.” If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No.”\n\nThis event matters because SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private technology companies, and any public listing would be a major benchmark for valuation in the tech and IPO markets. Current market sentiment is strongly tilted toward a “Yes” outcome, with traders pricing the forecast probability at 98.65%. That implies the market expects the first-day valuation to clear the stated threshold, though the outcome still depends on an actual IPO and the official closing price on the primary exchange’s listing page. The prediction market starts on December 11, 2025 and remains open through the 2027 deadline.",1314816.7019979998,{"id":367,"title":368,"slug":369,"category":101,"subcategory":38,"tags":370,"probability":374,"createdAt":375,"updatedAt":376,"resolutionDate":189,"description":377,"summary":378,"volume1wk":379,"featured":23},"424807","Jimmy Kimmel fired\u002Fresigns by May 31?","jimmy-kimmel-firedresigns-by-may-31",[38,31,371,372,373],"Celebrities","Culture","TV",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:43:07.723Z","2026-05-30T10:34:00.481Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Jimmy Kimmel ceases to be the host of Jimmy Kimmel Live! for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Kimmel's resignation\u002Ffiring before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Ffiring goes into effect.\n\nSuspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ABC or Disney, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Jimmy Kimmel fired\u002Fresigns by May 31? is a political prediction market asking whether Jimmy Kimmel will cease hosting Jimmy Kimmel Live! for any length of time between market creation and May 31, 2026. The event focuses on a clear forecasted outcome: a “Yes” resolution if ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live! host resigns, is fired, or otherwise stops hosting before the deadline; temporary suspensions or administrative leave do not count. If an official resignation or firing is announced before the end date, the market resolves to Yes immediately, even if the change takes effect later.\n\nThe market is relevant to politics, culture, celebrities, and TV because it tracks both entertainment news and potential media fallout involving ABC and Disney. As of the latest pricing, traders assign about a 25% probability to a Yes outcome, indicating the current market sentiment leans toward Kimmel remaining in place through the deadline, though the odds can move with new reporting. This event prediction is time-sensitive, with the forecast window ending at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026.",33375.912205,{"id":381,"title":382,"slug":383,"category":101,"subcategory":68,"tags":384,"probability":374,"createdAt":389,"updatedAt":390,"resolutionDate":203,"description":391,"summary":392,"volume1wk":393,"featured":23},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[68,103,38,385,386,387,388],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor","2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.","California Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market forecasting who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Traders in this election market are weighing the expected outcome of the governor race in one of the country’s most important states, with implications for California politics and broader U.S. election sentiment. The market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election, using Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC race calls, or official certification if those outlets do not all call the race for the same candidate. If the result is still unconfirmed by July 31, 2027, it will resolve to “Other.” Current market probability is about 25%, indicating that traders are assigning a modest chance to the leading outcome reflected in the market at this time. The market opened on October 9, 2025 and remains active through the election date, making it a closely watched event prediction for California Governor, Elections, and U.S. political forecast tracking.",4083953.7799110003,{"id":395,"title":396,"slug":397,"category":130,"subcategory":398,"tags":399,"probability":54,"createdAt":400,"updatedAt":401,"resolutionDate":42,"description":402,"summary":403,"volume1wk":404,"featured":23},"447964","Will GameStop acquire eBay?","will-gamestop-acquire-ebay","Acquisitions",[398,149],"2026-05-30T10:43:00.923Z","2026-05-30T10:32:09.513Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition\u002Fmerger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Will GameStop acquire eBay? is a finance prediction market in the Acquisitions category that asks whether GameStop will officially announce an acquisition of eBay, or a merger involving the two companies, by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if an official announcement confirms that eBay is being acquired by, or merged with, GameStop or a relevant parent company; it can also resolve Yes if GameStop gains a controlling interest through a partial sale or similar transaction. Deals that do not transfer control do not qualify.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks a potential large-cap technology and retail transaction involving GameStop and eBay Inc., two widely recognized public companies. For traders, the forecast centers on whether market sentiment supports a takeover announcement within the stated timeframe. As of the latest update, the market probability is 15.5%, indicating relatively low odds that the expected outcome will be a confirmed acquisition or merger before the deadline. The prediction market remains active through the end of 2026, with official company statements and credible reporting serving as the primary resolution sources.",59904.90449199998,{"id":406,"title":407,"slug":408,"category":28,"subcategory":37,"tags":409,"probability":39,"createdAt":411,"updatedAt":412,"resolutionDate":42,"description":413,"summary":414,"volume1wk":415,"featured":23},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[37,31,52,33,38,36,29,410],"Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to transfer custody of any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile outside Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because any such pledge would signal a major shift in U.S. x Iran nuclear diplomacy and broader Middle East security negotiations. \n\nFor this market to resolve to Yes, Iran must make a public agreement or pledge before the deadline, whether unilaterally or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel. The forecast does not require a finalized peace agreement, but it does require more than a promise to merely limit enrichment levels. Traders are specifically watching for confirmation that the stockpile, or any qualifying portion of it, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the control of an entity outside Iran and its influence. \n\nCurrent market probability is 0%, indicating extremely low expected odds at this stage, though prediction market sentiment can shift quickly on credible reporting or diplomatic developments. The primary resolution source is consensus credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":417,"title":418,"slug":419,"category":28,"subcategory":420,"tags":421,"probability":427,"createdAt":428,"updatedAt":429,"resolutionDate":42,"description":430,"summary":431,"volume1wk":432,"featured":23},"259355","Cuban regime falls in 2026?","cuban-regime-falls-in-2026","Cuba",[420,31,422,423,424,37,425,426],"PCC","Overthrow","Castro","Communist Party of Cuba","Miguel Diaz-Canel",26.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.418Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.401Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.\n\nLeadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","“Cuban regime falls in 2026?” is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) will cease to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026. The event does not hinge on a simple leadership change; it requires a clear break from PCC control, such as the overthrow or dissolution of the party’s governing role, a transfer of power to a different political authority, or multi-party national elections that produce a government no longer controlled by the PCC. The forecast matters because it speaks to the stability of Cuba’s political system and the durability of Communist Party rule under Miguel Díaz-Canel and the broader Castro-era political legacy. The market is active from March 11, 2026 through the end-of-year resolution date, with traders currently pricing the probability at about 26.5%. That suggests the market sentiment leans toward continued PCC control, though the odds still leave room for a meaningful event prediction. Credible reporting will determine resolution, and partial unrest or reforms that preserve PCC dominance will not count as a “Yes” outcome.",70826.50745299997,{"id":434,"title":435,"slug":436,"category":101,"subcategory":38,"tags":437,"probability":439,"createdAt":440,"updatedAt":441,"resolutionDate":57,"description":442,"summary":443,"volume1wk":444,"featured":23},"143567","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?","miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",[38,37,438,31,420],"Venezuela",64,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.131Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.393Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Cuba’s current leader will be removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026 ET. The market resolves to Yes if Díaz-Canel resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold — or is publicly reported unable to perform the duties of — the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, widely viewed as Cuba’s top political post. Otherwise, it resolves to No. This makes the event relevant to geopolitics and broader Cuba politics, as any change in leadership would be a significant development for the island’s domestic order and foreign relations.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 64%, suggesting traders see a moderate chance of this outcome within the forecast window. That level of odds reflects market sentiment rather than certainty, and the final resolution will depend on credible reporting before the end date. As a political forecast, this event prediction is closely watched by participants tracking Cuba, regional politics, and leadership stability.",53985.492464999996,{"id":446,"title":447,"slug":448,"category":282,"subcategory":285,"tags":449,"probability":451,"createdAt":452,"updatedAt":453,"resolutionDate":42,"description":454,"summary":455,"volume1wk":456,"featured":23},"448037","Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?","hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026",[285,450,283],"Pandemics",6.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.620Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.386Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a \"pandemic.\" A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","\"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?\" is a prediction market asking whether the World Health Organization will explicitly describe Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication before December 31, 2026. The market is resolved using WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications, and a PHEIC by itself does not count unless the WHO also uses the word pandemic. This makes the event a narrow forecast on official public-health language rather than on the severity of disease alone. Traders are effectively pricing the odds that a WHO communication will meet the market’s exact wording criteria. Current market probability is about 6.25%, suggesting low expected odds that the condition will be met. The event opened on May 4, 2026 and runs through the end of 2026, giving participants a fixed deadline for the forecasted outcome. Because resolution depends on precise WHO wording, market sentiment may shift quickly if new hantavirus outbreaks, WHO briefings, or related reports draw international attention.",1207277.849095,{"id":458,"title":459,"slug":460,"category":101,"subcategory":461,"tags":462,"probability":39,"createdAt":466,"updatedAt":467,"resolutionDate":468,"description":469,"summary":470,"volume1wk":471,"featured":23},"17725","Starmer out by...?","starmer-out-in-2025","Starmer",[461,463,464,465,38,69],"UK","keir","Grooming Gangs","2026-05-30T10:42:45.616Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.271Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","Starmer out by...? is a political prediction market on whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between February 2 and December 31, 2025. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Starmer leaves office for any period during that window, and it can also resolve early if there is an official resignation or removal announcement before the end date. Resolution will rely on the UK government, with credible reporting also accepted. As a UK politics event, this market draws attention to leadership stability, cabinet confidence, and the potential for a change in government during a major electoral cycle. The current market probability is 0%, which suggests traders are assigning very low odds to a departure in the resolution period, though prediction market sentiment can change quickly as political conditions evolve. The event starts on February 3, 2025 and runs through December 31, 2025, making it a year-long political forecast for traders following Starmer, UK politics, and event prediction markets.",1793963.307354999,{"id":473,"title":474,"slug":475,"category":130,"subcategory":155,"tags":476,"probability":39,"createdAt":477,"updatedAt":478,"resolutionDate":42,"description":479,"summary":480,"volume1wk":481,"featured":23},"68543","OpenAI IPO by...?","openai-ipo-by",[155,357,157,158,149,314,355,342],"2026-05-30T10:42:54.796Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.168Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nIf OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.","OpenAI IPO by...? is a finance prediction market tracking whether OpenAI will complete an initial public offering by the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes only if official company announcements or credible news sources confirm that OpenAI has gone public on a recognized stock exchange; if OpenAI is acquired by another public company, it resolves to No. As a result, traders are forecasting not just an IPO, but the broader corporate path OpenAI may take as one of the most closely watched AI and Big Tech companies. The event runs through the listed end date of 2026-12-31 ET, making it a long-dated event prediction with implications for tech, IPO, and business market sentiment. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders are not assigning meaningful odds to an OpenAI IPO by the deadline at this time. For search and indexing, this OpenAI IPO market sits at the intersection of finance, AI, and tech IPO forecasting, and it reflects how prediction markets price expectations around major corporate milestones.",134340.01467,{"id":483,"title":484,"slug":485,"category":486,"subcategory":372,"tags":487,"probability":490,"createdAt":491,"updatedAt":492,"resolutionDate":42,"description":493,"summary":494,"volume1wk":495,"featured":23},"90177","Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?","will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027","CULTURE",[372,38,488,489],"Science","Aliens",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.657Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.153Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? is a culture prediction market asking whether the United States government will make a definitive public statement that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes if the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency explicitly confirms alien life or alien technology; otherwise it resolves to No. The market’s primary resolution source is official US government information, with credible reporting used only if needed. This makes the forecast especially relevant to traders tracking politics, science, and public disclosure claims around unidentified aerial phenomena and extraterrestrial intelligence. As of the latest update, the prediction market implies about a 14.5% probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting market sentiment still leans strongly toward No. With the start date set for November 25, 2025 and the deadline at the end of 2026, this event prediction will likely stay sensitive to government statements, agency disclosures, and major headlines over time.",3652303.3036910007,{"id":497,"title":498,"slug":499,"category":65,"subcategory":70,"tags":500,"probability":501,"createdAt":502,"updatedAt":503,"resolutionDate":110,"description":504,"summary":505,"volume1wk":506,"featured":23},"30829","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028","democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",[70,67,68,38,103,104,105,106],1.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.593Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.146Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 is a prediction market tracking who will win and accept the Democratic Party’s nomination for U.S. president in 2028. The event matters because the nominee will shape the party’s national campaign, policy agenda, and general election strategy, making it a closely watched forecast in U.S. politics and world elections coverage. According to the market rules, the contract resolves to “Yes” if the named individual secures and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination; a replacement before Election Day does not change the resolution. The market is active from July 11, 2025 through November 7, 2028, when the outcome is expected to be settled. Current market probability is about 1.05%, indicating traders see the named outcome as a low-probability event at present, though prediction market odds can shift as the election cycle develops. As an election forecast, this market reflects market sentiment around Democratic primaries, party leadership, and the eventual nominee selection process.",14863770.623744,{"id":508,"title":509,"slug":510,"category":511,"subcategory":136,"tags":512,"probability":39,"createdAt":517,"updatedAt":518,"resolutionDate":519,"description":520,"summary":521,"volume1wk":522,"featured":23},"16167","MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?","microstrategy-sell-any-bitcoin-in-2025","CRYPTO",[136,314,513,514,515,516],"2025 Predictions","Crypto","MicroStrategy","Stocks","2026-05-30T10:42:43.647Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.132Z","2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? is a crypto prediction market focused on whether MicroStrategy will sell any of its Bitcoin before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The event asks traders to forecast a simple yes-or-no outcome: if the company disposes of any Bitcoin during the resolution window, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise it resolves to No. This matters because MicroStrategy is one of the most closely watched corporate Bitcoin holders, and any sale would be a meaningful signal for crypto market sentiment and the company’s treasury strategy. The market uses information from MSTR and on-chain data, with credible reporting also considered for resolution. As of the latest available data, the market probability is 0%, though that figure should be understood as current market sentiment rather than a guarantee. The event opened on December 31, 2024 and remains active through the end of 2025, giving traders a long-dated event prediction tied to corporate behavior, Bitcoin holdings, and broader crypto and business outlooks.",13052528.154986965,{"id":524,"title":525,"slug":526,"category":65,"subcategory":527,"tags":528,"probability":531,"createdAt":532,"updatedAt":533,"resolutionDate":534,"description":535,"summary":536,"volume1wk":537,"featured":538},"438483","France United Left Primary Winner","france-united-left-primary-winner","french",[527,67,529,38,68,530],"France","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",0.35,"2026-05-30T10:43:27.121Z","2026-05-30T10:40:26.561Z","2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z","The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.\n\nIf no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\". \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","France United Left Primary Winner is a prediction market on who will win the 2026 United Left primary and become the joint candidate supported by participating left-wing parties and movements for the 2027 French presidential election. The market is centered on the primary scheduled for October 11, 2026, and it resolves to the nominee selected through that process, with specific fallback rules if the primary is canceled or no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027. In practical terms, traders are forecasting which candidate will secure the left-wing nomination in France’s evolving election landscape. This event matters because the United Left primary is intended to unify several political groups behind one presidential contender, making it a key signal of market sentiment ahead of the 2027 campaign. Current market probability for the leading expected outcome is about 35%, suggesting a fairly open contest rather than a clear favorite. Resolution is based on credible reporting and official announcements from organizers or participating parties, which makes the event prediction dependent on real-time political developments, party participation, and nomination announcements.",9770.794992000001,false,{"id":540,"title":541,"slug":542,"category":65,"subcategory":69,"tags":543,"probability":545,"createdAt":546,"updatedAt":547,"resolutionDate":42,"description":548,"summary":549,"volume1wk":550,"featured":538},"194008","Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?","will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026",[69,544,31,38],"Canada",15.75,"2026-05-30T10:43:24.025Z","2026-05-30T10:40:25.891Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? is an election prediction market focused on whether a referendum on Alberta’s independence from Canada will be passed by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if Alberta voters approve a referendum that establishes a desire for independence, creates a framework for separation, or directly establishes independence from Canada. It will resolve using official information from the Government of Alberta, with credible reporting as a fallback source. As of the latest update, traders assign the event about a 15.75% probability, indicating market sentiment still leans toward a “No” outcome. The forecast matters because it tracks a major constitutional and political question in Canada, with implications for Alberta, federal-provincial relations, and broader World politics. The prediction market opened on January 30, 2026 and runs through the end of 2026, giving traders time to react to developments in Alberta politics, referendum proposals, and official announcements. For readers following election odds and event prediction markets, this listing reflects current expectations rather than a guarantee of the eventual result.",11540.679286,{"id":552,"title":553,"slug":554,"category":65,"subcategory":31,"tags":555,"probability":559,"createdAt":560,"updatedAt":561,"resolutionDate":203,"description":562,"summary":563,"volume1wk":564,"featured":538},"131798","Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?","republican-trifecta-with-supermajority-in-the-senate",[31,68,198,38,556,103,557,558],"Parlays","Congress","Senate",9.8,"2026-05-30T10:43:25.002Z","2026-05-30T10:40:25.287Z","The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.\n\nIf control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nA candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n","Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? is a 2026 election prediction market tracking a specific Republican sweep in the U.S. midterms. The forecast asks whether, after the November 3, 2026 elections, the Republican Party will control the U.S. presidency, win a majority in the House of Representatives, and hold at least 60 seats in the Senate. In practical terms, this is a bet on a Republican trifecta with a Senate supermajority, not just a simple House or Senate result.\n\nThe market runs through election day and may remain open longer if any runoff election could affect the final outcome. Resolution will rely on AP, Fox News, and NBC, with official certification used if those sources do not agree. Current market probability is about 9.8%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as relatively unlikely, though not impossible. As an election forecast, it reflects broader market sentiment around the Trump-era Republican coalition, congressional control, and whether the party can secure enough Senate seats to reach the supermajority threshold.",11048.869804000009,{"id":566,"title":567,"slug":568,"category":130,"subcategory":151,"tags":569,"probability":572,"createdAt":573,"updatedAt":574,"resolutionDate":575,"description":576,"summary":577,"volume1wk":578,"featured":538},"500559","Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?","will-stripes-valuation-hit-by-june-30",[151,149,570,571,155,157],"Stripe","Payments",6,"2026-05-30T10:43:19.209Z","2026-05-30T10:40:25.182Z","2026-07-01T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.\n\nIf NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.\n\nIf NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.\nIf the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.\n\nPublic market capitalization will be determined using the highest\u002Flowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.\n\nIf the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.\n\nIf the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https:\u002F\u002Ffe.secondmarket.com\u002Fcompanies\u002Fcompany-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0\u002Fdata?return_url=https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Ffinance\u002Fprivates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.\n\nRevisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.","Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30? is a finance prediction market asking whether Stripe’s private market valuation will reach or exceed a specified level at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026. The forecast is based on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) price data, with daily updates published on trading days and used to determine the expected outcome. If Stripe completes an IPO or direct listing before the deadline, official exchange pricing and public market capitalization can also factor into resolution. If the company is acquired or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity, only valuation data available before that transaction will count. Market sentiment currently implies a low probability of about 6%, suggesting traders see the threshold as unlikely to be reached. The event is relevant to finance and private markets watchers because Stripe is a major payments and tech company, and its valuation is often treated as a signal for broader private-company pricing in the big tech sector. The market is scheduled to run through July 1, 2026, with a possible extension if all relevant NPM data is not yet available.",15621.907764000001,{"id":580,"title":581,"slug":582,"category":282,"subcategory":285,"tags":583,"probability":74,"createdAt":589,"updatedAt":590,"resolutionDate":591,"description":592,"summary":593,"volume1wk":594,"featured":538},"533173","Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 30?","highest-temperature-in-los-angeles-on-may-30-2026",[285,584,89,585,586,587,588],"Recurring","Daily Temperature","Los Angeles","Rewards Automation 100 4.5 50 (2)","Highest temperature","2026-05-30T10:43:21.325Z","2026-05-30T10:40:24.128Z","2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 May '26.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wunderground.com\u002Fhistory\u002Fdaily\u002Fus\u002Fca\u002Flos-angeles\u002FKLAX.\n\nTo toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.\n\nThis market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nRevisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.","“Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 30?” is a weather prediction market asking traders to forecast the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport Station on May 30, 2026. The market resolves to the temperature range that contains the day’s peak reading, using Wunderground’s daily history for KLAX as the source of truth. Because the resolution is based on the highest observed temperature for that date, the expected outcome depends on the full day’s weather data, and the market cannot resolve until the first reading for May 31 is published. The event is part of the Weather category, with a focus on recurring daily temperature forecasting in Los Angeles. Current market probability is about 5%, indicating traders assign a low chance to the relevant outcome in the forecast. As a weather forecast and event prediction, this listing reflects market sentiment around late-May conditions in Southern California rather than a guaranteed result. Precision is to whole degrees Fahrenheit, which is important for how the final resolution range is determined.",13590.216768,{"id":596,"title":597,"slug":598,"category":599,"subcategory":600,"tags":601,"probability":39,"createdAt":606,"updatedAt":607,"resolutionDate":608,"description":609,"summary":610,"volume1wk":611,"featured":538},"114072","Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by...?","will-valve-will-add-cache-to-the-map-pool-by-end-of-january-519","ESPORTS","CS2",[600,602,603,9,604,605],"Esports","counter-strike","counter strike 2","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20","2026-05-30T10:43:17.721Z","2026-05-30T10:40:23.840Z","2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Valve adds the map Cache to the official map pool by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Cache is added to the Active Duty pool, it must remain there continuously for at least 48 hours for this market to resolve to “Yes”. Temporary additions (e.g., for testing) that are reversed within 48 hours will not count. If Cache is added after the deadline, this market will resolve to “No”, even if the addition was announced earlier.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, “Valve” refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “official map pool” refers to the Active Duty map group in Counter-Strike 2 (CS2), which consists of the maps eligible for both competitive matchmaking and professional tournaments.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","“Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by...?” is a CS2 prediction market focused on whether Valve Corporation will return the Cache map to the official Active Duty map pool in Counter-Strike 2. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the chance that Valve adds Cache to the competitive map rotation by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the map must remain in the pool for at least 48 continuous hours for the market to resolve Yes. If the addition happens after the deadline, or only as a short-lived test change, the outcome is No.\n\nThis event matters for esports fans because the Active Duty map pool shapes both competitive matchmaking and professional tournament play. Market sentiment will likely track official Valve announcements and credible reporting as the deadline approaches. The current market probability can shift with news flow, but the listing provides a live prediction-market signal on the expected outcome. For traders following CS2 odds, this is a focused esports forecast tied directly to Valve’s map pool decisions.",17237.600580000002,{"id":613,"title":614,"slug":615,"category":130,"subcategory":158,"tags":616,"probability":617,"createdAt":618,"updatedAt":619,"resolutionDate":57,"description":620,"summary":621,"volume1wk":622,"featured":538},"48300","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap",[158,355,155,157,153,357,149],0.15,"2026-05-30T10:43:05.995Z","2026-05-30T10:40:23.085Z","This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by June 30, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.","Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap is a finance prediction market that asks traders to forecast Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. The event centers on whether the AI company completes an initial public offering and, if so, what valuation bracket it lands in based on the official first-day closing price and shares outstanding. If Anthropic does not go public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by June 30, 2026.”\n\nThis event matters because Anthropic is one of the most closely watched AI companies, and its IPO would be a key signal for broader tech and Big Tech market sentiment. Current market probability is about 15%, suggesting traders see a relatively low but still meaningful chance of an IPO-related resolution before the deadline. The forecast relies on official exchange data, with fallback sourcing if the primary listing page does not show the relevant figure. The market opened on September 23, 2025 and runs through June 30, 2026, making it a long-dated event prediction tied to AI, IPOs, and finance.",37997.307443000005,{"id":624,"title":625,"slug":626,"category":28,"subcategory":69,"tags":627,"probability":630,"createdAt":631,"updatedAt":632,"resolutionDate":57,"description":633,"summary":634,"volume1wk":635,"featured":538},"73182","Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?","will-russia-capture-slovainsk-by-2027",[69,628,629,38,37],"Russia","Ukraine",2.6,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.287Z","2026-05-30T10:40:23.032Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https:\u002F\u002Fstorymaps.arcgis.com\u002Fstories\u002F36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain station location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fslovyansk+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain station Location in Sloviansk: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fslovyansk+train+station.jpeg\n\nSloviansk Location: https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fslovyansk.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https:\u002F\u002Fmaps.app.goo.gl\u002FFnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https:\u002F\u002Fdeepstatemap.live\u002F) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take control of the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station in eastern Ukraine by the resolution deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if the ISW Ukraine map shows any part of the train station icon shaded red by that date, or if Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement that establishes control over the territory. If the station is not under Russian control by the deadline, the outcome is No. This event matters because Sloviansk is a strategically watched location in the Russia-Ukraine war, and traders use the prediction market to track battlefield developments, market sentiment, and the expected outcome of the conflict. Current market probability is about 2.6%, indicating that traders currently assign low odds to Russia capturing the station before the cutoff. The primary resolution source is the ISW map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if needed.",11955.776439,{"id":637,"title":638,"slug":639,"category":8,"subcategory":9,"tags":640,"probability":643,"createdAt":644,"updatedAt":645,"resolutionDate":646,"description":647,"summary":648,"volume1wk":649,"featured":538},"535897","Kataller Toyama vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki - More Markets","j2100-kat-teg-2026-05-30-more-markets",[9,641,642,85],"Japan J2 League","Games",20,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.003Z","2026-05-30T10:40:23.003Z","2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z","More markets for the J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for May 30 at 5:00 AM ET.","Kataller Toyama vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki - More Markets is a sports prediction market tied to a Japan J2 League soccer match, giving traders additional event prediction opportunities around the game. The forecast centers on whether new markets will be posted for this fixture, rather than the match result itself. According to the current market probability, there is about a 20% chance of the expected outcome being realized, which suggests relatively cautious market sentiment. The event is associated with the J2 100 Year Vision League game scheduled for May 30 at 5:00 AM ET, with the market running through May 30 at 9:00 AM ET. As a Japan J2 League soccer event, it fits within the broader sports forecast category and is relevant to users tracking odds, market movement, and prediction market activity around Japanese football. Traders watching this listing are effectively pricing the likelihood of additional markets being added for Kataller Toyama vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki before the deadline.",30065.242206,{"id":651,"title":652,"slug":653,"category":28,"subcategory":654,"tags":655,"probability":501,"createdAt":658,"updatedAt":659,"resolutionDate":57,"description":660,"summary":661,"volume1wk":662,"featured":538},"86318","Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?","which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30","Israel",[654,37,52,656,657,38],"Syria","Yemen","2026-05-30T10:43:10.494Z","2026-05-30T10:40:22.880Z","This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.\n\nAn announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\" Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n","\"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast which governments will formally recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. The outcome is based only on official government recognition; an announcement of intent will not count. If government sources are unclear, the market may also use a consensus of credible reporting. This makes the event a focused test of diplomatic developments involving Israel, the Middle East, and countries such as Syria and Yemen that are relevant to the broader regional context. The market is designed to capture event prediction and market sentiment around formal recognition, rather than broader political statements. Current market probability is shown at about 1.05%, suggesting traders see recognition by additional countries as a low-probability outcome, though odds can change as new diplomatic signals emerge. The forecast will resolve at the end of the listed window, making timing central to the event’s resolution and to how prediction market participants assess the expected outcome.",25636.637882,{"id":664,"title":665,"slug":666,"category":101,"subcategory":38,"tags":667,"probability":74,"createdAt":673,"updatedAt":674,"resolutionDate":675,"description":676,"summary":677,"volume1wk":678,"featured":538},"80071","Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner","alabama-republican-senate-primary-winner",[38,68,105,668,669,670,671,672],"primary elections","Senate Primary","Alabama Primary","Republican Primary","May 19 Primaries","2026-05-30T10:43:18.994Z","2026-05-30T10:40:22.655Z","2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama.\n\nIf no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.","Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner is a political prediction market focused on who will win the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama. The event asks traders to forecast the outcome of the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate primary, with resolution tied to the first official results announced by the Alabama Republican Party or, if needed, credible consensus reporting. If no 2026 primary takes place, the market resolves to \"Other.\" The market opens on November 13, 2025 and is scheduled around the May 19, 2026 primary deadline. As a political forecast, this event reflects market sentiment on the likely nominee and the expected outcome in one of Alabama’s key election contests. Current market probability is around 5%, suggesting the leading outcome is still viewed as relatively uncertain and subject to change as the race develops. This listing is relevant for election watchers, primary elections coverage, and analysts tracking Senate Primary odds, Alabama Primary dynamics, and broader political prediction market activity.",16144.803398,{"id":680,"title":681,"slug":682,"category":28,"subcategory":37,"tags":683,"probability":684,"createdAt":685,"updatedAt":686,"resolutionDate":42,"description":687,"summary":688,"volume1wk":689,"featured":538},"131764","Nothing Ever Happens: 2026","nothing-ever-happens-2026",[37,556,38,69],69.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:16.303Z","2026-05-30T10:40:22.390Z","This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:\n\n- Trump out as President\n- China invades Taiwan\n- Xi Jinping out\n- U.S. invades Iran\n- Iranian regime falls\n- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’\n- Jeffrey Epstein alive\n- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate\n- Russia invades a NATO country\n- Trump acquires Greenland\n- 9.0 or above earthquake\n- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)\n- Major meteor strike (250kt+)\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FNEH+2026.pdf","Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a major global disruption will occur before December 31, 2026. The event resolves to “No” if any listed trigger happens between market creation and the deadline, including Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping being out, a U.S. invasion of Iran, regime collapse in Iran, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, or extreme events such as a 9.0+ earthquake, a VEI 6 or larger volcanic eruption, or a major meteor strike. It also includes several other specific tail-risk outcomes, such as Bitcoin reaching 1 million or falling to 10,000, Jeffrey Epstein being alive, or a Republican trifecta with a Senate supermajority. Otherwise, the market resolves to “Yes.” As of the latest data, traders assign about a 69.5% probability to the “Yes” outcome, suggesting market sentiment leans toward no qualifying event occurring by year-end. This makes it a broad event prediction on geopolitical stability, tail risks, and high-impact world events.",18321.310698000005,{"id":691,"title":692,"body":693,"description":1955,"extension":1956,"meta":1957,"navigation":23,"path":1958,"seo":1959,"stem":1960,"__hash__":1961},"content\u002F_includes\u002Fhome.md","Prediction Markets & Event Forecasts – Probability Models for Future Events",{"type":694,"value":695,"toc":1932},"minimark",[696,701,709,732,751,754,758,765,776,779,835,842,856,858,862,865,889,895,898,943,946,972,974,978,989,996,1016,1021,1091,1097,1099,1103,1112,1115,1135,1139,1146,1149,1164,1202,1212,1214,1218,1224,1227,1286,1292,1294,1298,1303,1306,1322,1326,1362,1368,1370,1374,1380,1383,1388,1391,1395,1401,1405,1411,1415,1421,1423,1427,1433,1436,1486,1492,1494,1498,1504,1508,1511,1524,1531,1533,1537,1544,1547,1558,1560,1564,1567,1578,1584,1586,1590,1593,1604,1610,1612,1616,1622,1629,1631,1635,1641,1643,1685,1692,1694,1698,1701,1704,1707,1710,1747,1753,1755,1759,1762,1779,1786,1788,1792,1798,1801,1818,1824,1826,1830,1834,1837,1839,1843,1850,1852,1856,1863,1865,1869,1872,1886,1888,1892,1901,1903,1907,1918,1925],[697,698,700],"h1",{"id":699},"global-prediction-markets-probability-forecasts-for-world-events","Global Prediction Markets & Probability Forecasts for World Events",[702,703,704],"p",{},[705,706],"img",{"alt":707,"src":708},"predstack","\u002Fimages\u002Fpredstack.png",[702,710,711,715,716,723,724,731],{},[712,713,714],"strong",{},"Prediction markets"," are rapidly becoming one of the most powerful tools for forecasting the future. From ",[712,717,718],{},[719,720,722],"a",{"href":721},"\u002Fsports","World Cup outcomes and sports tournaments"," to ",[712,725,726,730],{},[719,727,729],{"href":728},"\u002Fpolitics","political elections",", technology releases, and economic developments",", prediction markets transform collective intelligence into measurable probabilities.",[702,733,734,735,738,739,742,743,746,747,750],{},"Our platform allows users to ",[712,736,737],{},"forecast any event in the world"," using data-driven insights, market sentiment, statistical models, and probability analysis. Whether you want to analyze ",[712,740,741],{},"World Cup prediction markets",", evaluate ",[712,744,745],{},"Polymarket forecasts",", or explore ",[712,748,749],{},"future event probabilities",", this page provides a complete overview of how modern event forecasting platforms work.",[752,753],"hr",{},[697,755,757],{"id":756},"what-are-prediction-markets","What Are Prediction Markets?",[702,759,760,761,764],{},"Prediction markets are ",[712,762,763],{},"market-based forecasting systems"," where participants estimate the probability of future outcomes. Instead of relying on a single expert or model, these markets aggregate information from many participants to produce highly accurate forecasts.",[702,766,767,768,771,772,775],{},"Each outcome in a prediction market is represented as a ",[712,769,770],{},"tradable probability contract",". The price of the contract reflects the ",[712,773,774],{},"market's collective estimate of the probability"," of that event occurring.",[702,777,778],{},"For example:",[780,781,782,798],"table",{},[783,784,785],"thead",{},[786,787,788,792,795],"tr",{},[789,790,791],"th",{},"Event",[789,793,794],{},"Market Price",[789,796,797],{},"Implied Probability",[799,800,801,813,824],"tbody",{},[786,802,803,807,810],{},[804,805,806],"td",{},"Team A wins World Cup",[804,808,809],{},"0.45",[804,811,812],{},"45%",[786,814,815,818,821],{},[804,816,817],{},"Team B wins World Cup",[804,819,820],{},"0.32",[804,822,823],{},"32%",[786,825,826,829,832],{},[804,827,828],{},"Team C wins World Cup",[804,830,831],{},"0.18",[804,833,834],{},"18%",[702,836,837,838,841],{},"This market structure makes ",[712,839,840],{},"prediction markets one of the most accurate forecasting mechanisms available today",".",[702,843,844,845,848,849,841],{},"Popular platforms like ",[712,846,847],{},"Polymarket"," demonstrate how markets can forecast everything from ",[712,850,851,723,854],{},[719,852,853],{"href":721},"sports events",[719,855,729],{"href":728},[752,857],{},[697,859,861],{"id":860},"why-prediction-markets-are-powerful-forecasting-tools","Why Prediction Markets Are Powerful Forecasting Tools",[702,863,864],{},"Prediction markets outperform many traditional forecasting methods because they combine:",[866,867,868,874,879,884],"ul",{},[869,870,871],"li",{},[712,872,873],{},"Collective intelligence",[869,875,876],{},[712,877,878],{},"Real-time information updates",[869,880,881],{},[712,882,883],{},"Financial incentives",[869,885,886],{},[712,887,888],{},"Statistical probability models",[702,890,891,892,841],{},"Research has repeatedly shown that ",[712,893,894],{},"market-based probability forecasts often outperform expert predictions and traditional polls",[702,896,897],{},"Key advantages include:",[780,899,900,910],{},[783,901,902],{},[786,903,904,907],{},[789,905,906],{},"Feature",[789,908,909],{},"Benefit",[799,911,912,920,928,935],{},[786,913,914,917],{},[804,915,916],{},"Market-driven probabilities",[804,918,919],{},"Reflect real-time information",[786,921,922,925],{},[804,923,924],{},"Decentralized forecasting",[804,926,927],{},"Multiple perspectives improve accuracy",[786,929,930,932],{},[804,931,883],{},[804,933,934],{},"Encourage honest predictions",[786,936,937,940],{},[804,938,939],{},"Continuous updates",[804,941,942],{},"Markets adjust instantly to new data",[702,944,945],{},"Because of these advantages, prediction markets are now widely used to forecast:",[866,947,948,953,957,960,963,966],{},[869,949,950],{},[719,951,952],{"href":721},"Sports tournaments",[869,954,955],{},[719,956,68],{"href":728},[869,958,959],{},"Economic indicators",[869,961,962],{},"Technology releases",[869,964,965],{},"Global events",[869,967,968],{},[719,969,971],{"href":970},"\u002Fcrypto","Cryptocurrency markets",[752,973],{},[697,975,977],{"id":976},"sports-forecasting-world-cup-prediction-markets","Sports Forecasting & World Cup Prediction Markets",[702,979,980,981,986,987,841],{},"One of the most popular applications of prediction markets is ",[712,982,983],{},[719,984,985],{"href":721},"sports forecasting",", especially for major events like the ",[712,988,87],{},[702,990,991,992,995],{},"A ",[712,993,994],{},"World Cup prediction market"," allows users to estimate:",[866,997,998,1001,1004,1007,1010,1013],{},[869,999,1000],{},"Which team will win the World Cup",[869,1002,1003],{},"Group stage outcomes",[869,1005,1006],{},"Match winners",[869,1008,1009],{},"Tournament progression",[869,1011,1012],{},"Player awards",[869,1014,1015],{},"Total goals or expected goals metrics",[1017,1018,1020],"h2",{"id":1019},"world-cup-probability-forecast-example","World Cup Probability Forecast Example",[780,1022,1023,1036],{},[783,1024,1025],{},[786,1026,1027,1030,1033],{},[789,1028,1029],{},"Team",[789,1031,1032],{},"Market Probability",[789,1034,1035],{},"Model Probability",[799,1037,1038,1049,1058,1069,1080],{},[786,1039,1040,1043,1046],{},[804,1041,1042],{},"Brazil",[804,1044,1045],{},"22%",[804,1047,1048],{},"21.5%",[786,1050,1051,1053,1055],{},[804,1052,529],{},[804,1054,834],{},[804,1056,1057],{},"17.8%",[786,1059,1060,1063,1066],{},[804,1061,1062],{},"England",[804,1064,1065],{},"14%",[804,1067,1068],{},"15.2%",[786,1070,1071,1074,1077],{},[804,1072,1073],{},"Argentina",[804,1075,1076],{},"13%",[804,1078,1079],{},"12.6%",[786,1081,1082,1085,1088],{},[804,1083,1084],{},"Germany",[804,1086,1087],{},"9%",[804,1089,1090],{},"10.3%",[702,1092,1093,1094,841],{},"These forecasts are produced using ",[712,1095,1096],{},"football probability models, expected goals analysis, and statistical simulations",[752,1098],{},[697,1100,1102],{"id":1101},"data-driven-world-cup-predictions","Data-Driven World Cup Predictions",[702,1104,1105,1106,1111],{},"Modern ",[712,1107,1108],{},[719,1109,1110],{"href":721},"sports forecasting models"," use advanced analytics to generate accurate tournament predictions.",[702,1113,1114],{},"Important inputs include:",[866,1116,1117,1120,1123,1126,1129,1132],{},[869,1118,1119],{},"Team strength ratings",[869,1121,1122],{},"Expected goals (xG)",[869,1124,1125],{},"Historical performance",[869,1127,1128],{},"Player availability",[869,1130,1131],{},"Tactical matchups",[869,1133,1134],{},"Tournament simulations",[1017,1136,1138],{"id":1137},"football-forecast-probability-model","Football Forecast Probability Model",[702,1140,1141,1142,1145],{},"Typical ",[712,1143,1144],{},"World Cup prediction model analysis"," involves running thousands of simulations.",[702,1147,1148],{},"Example simulation process:",[1150,1151,1152,1155,1158,1161],"ol",{},[869,1153,1154],{},"Calculate team ratings",[869,1156,1157],{},"Simulate each match using probability distributions",[869,1159,1160],{},"Repeat tournament simulation thousands of times",[869,1162,1163],{},"Estimate the probability of each team winning",[780,1165,1166,1176],{},[783,1167,1168],{},[786,1169,1170,1173],{},[789,1171,1172],{},"Simulation Runs",[789,1174,1175],{},"Purpose",[799,1177,1178,1186,1194],{},[786,1179,1180,1183],{},[804,1181,1182],{},"10,000",[804,1184,1185],{},"Baseline predictions",[786,1187,1188,1191],{},[804,1189,1190],{},"50,000",[804,1192,1193],{},"Stable probability estimates",[786,1195,1196,1199],{},[804,1197,1198],{},"100,000+",[804,1200,1201],{},"High-confidence forecasts",[702,1203,1204,1205,1208,1209,841],{},"This ",[712,1206,1207],{},"data-driven approach"," produces the most reliable ",[712,1210,1211],{},"World Cup probability forecast",[752,1213],{},[697,1215,1217],{"id":1216},"prediction-markets-vs-traditional-odds","Prediction Markets vs Traditional Odds",[702,1219,1220,1221,841],{},"Many users compare ",[712,1222,1223],{},"prediction markets vs sportsbook odds",[702,1225,1226],{},"Although both express probabilities, they function differently.",[780,1228,1229,1241],{},[783,1230,1231],{},[786,1232,1233,1235,1238],{},[789,1234,906],{},[789,1236,1237],{},"Prediction Markets",[789,1239,1240],{},"Betting Odds",[799,1242,1243,1254,1265,1275],{},[786,1244,1245,1248,1251],{},[804,1246,1247],{},"Probability source",[804,1249,1250],{},"Crowd forecasting",[804,1252,1253],{},"Bookmaker pricing",[786,1255,1256,1259,1262],{},[804,1257,1258],{},"Market updates",[804,1260,1261],{},"Continuous",[804,1263,1264],{},"Controlled by sportsbook",[786,1266,1267,1270,1272],{},[804,1268,1269],{},"Information source",[804,1271,873],{},[804,1273,1274],{},"Risk management models",[786,1276,1277,1280,1283],{},[804,1278,1279],{},"Transparency",[804,1281,1282],{},"High",[804,1284,1285],{},"Limited",[702,1287,1288,1289,841],{},"Because of this structure, ",[712,1290,1291],{},"prediction markets often provide more transparent probability signals",[752,1293],{},[697,1295,1297],{"id":1296},"understanding-polymarket-predictions","Understanding Polymarket Predictions",[702,1299,1300,1302],{},[712,1301,847],{}," is one of the most recognized platforms for event forecasting. It allows users to estimate probabilities for global events including sports, politics, finance, and technology.",[702,1304,1305],{},"Typical Polymarket markets include:",[866,1307,1308,1311,1314,1317,1319],{},[869,1309,1310],{},"World Cup winner predictions",[869,1312,1313],{},"Election outcomes",[869,1315,1316],{},"Cryptocurrency milestones",[869,1318,959],{},[869,1320,1321],{},"Technology launches",[1017,1323,1325],{"id":1324},"polymarket-probability-vs-odds","Polymarket Probability vs Odds",[780,1327,1328,1336],{},[783,1329,1330],{},[786,1331,1332,1334],{},[789,1333,794],{},[789,1335,797],{},[799,1337,1338,1346,1354],{},[786,1339,1340,1343],{},[804,1341,1342],{},"$0.70",[804,1344,1345],{},"70%",[786,1347,1348,1351],{},[804,1349,1350],{},"$0.50",[804,1352,1353],{},"50%",[786,1355,1356,1359],{},[804,1357,1358],{},"$0.20",[804,1360,1361],{},"20%",[702,1363,1364,1365,841],{},"This simple mechanism makes ",[712,1366,1367],{},"Polymarket probability analysis easy to interpret",[752,1369],{},[697,1371,1373],{"id":1372},"prediction-market-strategies","Prediction Market Strategies",[702,1375,1376,1377,841],{},"Successful forecasting in prediction markets requires understanding both ",[712,1378,1379],{},"data analysis and market psychology",[702,1381,1382],{},"Common strategies include:",[1384,1385,1387],"h3",{"id":1386},"information-advantage","Information Advantage",[702,1389,1390],{},"Using better information than the market.",[1384,1392,1394],{"id":1393},"statistical-modeling","Statistical Modeling",[702,1396,1397,1398,841],{},"Applying ",[712,1399,1400],{},"probability models, simulations, and historical analysis",[1384,1402,1404],{"id":1403},"market-inefficiency-detection","Market Inefficiency Detection",[702,1406,1407,1408,841],{},"Identifying ",[712,1409,1410],{},"mispriced probabilities",[1384,1412,1414],{"id":1413},"event-timing","Event Timing",[702,1416,1417,1418,841],{},"Entering markets when ",[712,1419,1420],{},"new information appears",[752,1422],{},[697,1424,1426],{"id":1425},"prediction-markets-for-global-events","Prediction Markets for Global Events",[702,1428,1429,1430,841],{},"While sports forecasting is popular, prediction markets can estimate probabilities for ",[712,1431,1432],{},"any future event",[702,1434,1435],{},"Examples include:",[780,1437,1438,1448],{},[783,1439,1440],{},[786,1441,1442,1445],{},[789,1443,1444],{},"Category",[789,1446,1447],{},"Forecast Examples",[799,1449,1450,1457,1463,1471,1478],{},[786,1451,1452,1454],{},[804,1453,9],{},[804,1455,1456],{},"World Cup winners, Olympic medals",[786,1458,1459,1461],{},[804,1460,38],{},[804,1462,1313],{},[786,1464,1465,1468],{},[804,1466,1467],{},"Technology",[804,1469,1470],{},"Product launches",[786,1472,1473,1475],{},[804,1474,149],{},[804,1476,1477],{},"Market indicators",[786,1479,1480,1483],{},[804,1481,1482],{},"Entertainment",[804,1484,1485],{},"Award winners",[702,1487,1488,1489,841],{},"This makes prediction markets a powerful ",[712,1490,1491],{},"event forecasting platform",[752,1493],{},[697,1495,1497],{"id":1496},"prediction-markets-around-the-world","Prediction Markets Around the World",[702,1499,1500,1501,841],{},"Prediction markets are growing globally, especially in regions with strong interest in ",[712,1502,1503],{},"sports analytics and forecasting technology",[1017,1505,1507],{"id":1506},"prediction-markets-australia","Prediction Markets Australia",[702,1509,1510],{},"Australia has an active sports analytics community focused on:",[866,1512,1513,1518,1521],{},[869,1514,1515],{},[712,1516,1517],{},"World Cup prediction Australia",[869,1519,1520],{},"Sports forecasting models",[869,1522,1523],{},"Data-driven football analysis",[702,1525,1526,1527,1530],{},"Australian users frequently analyze ",[712,1528,1529],{},"sports prediction markets"," for tournaments such as the FIFA World Cup and major international competitions.",[752,1532],{},[1017,1534,1536],{"id":1535},"prediction-markets-japan","Prediction Markets Japan",[702,1538,1539,1540,1543],{},"Japan has a strong culture of ",[712,1541,1542],{},"statistical modeling and data science",", which translates well into prediction markets.",[702,1545,1546],{},"Popular areas include:",[866,1548,1549,1552,1555],{},[869,1550,1551],{},"Sports prediction Japan analysis",[869,1553,1554],{},"Event forecasting Japan prediction markets",[869,1556,1557],{},"Probability modeling for international competitions",[752,1559],{},[1017,1561,1563],{"id":1562},"prediction-markets-south-korea","Prediction Markets South Korea",[702,1565,1566],{},"South Korea has a rapidly growing analytics ecosystem focused on:",[866,1568,1569,1572,1575],{},[869,1570,1571],{},"Sports probability forecasting",[869,1573,1574],{},"Data modeling",[869,1576,1577],{},"Algorithmic predictions",[702,1579,1580,1581,841],{},"Prediction markets Korea communities frequently analyze ",[712,1582,1583],{},"global sports events and esports competitions",[752,1585],{},[1017,1587,1589],{"id":1588},"prediction-markets-indonesia","Prediction Markets Indonesia",[702,1591,1592],{},"Indonesia has one of the largest online communities interested in:",[866,1594,1595,1598,1601],{},[869,1596,1597],{},"Football prediction models",[869,1599,1600],{},"Event forecasting platforms",[869,1602,1603],{},"Global sports probability analysis",[702,1605,1606,1607,841],{},"Football remains the most popular forecasting category in ",[712,1608,1609],{},"prediction markets Indonesia",[752,1611],{},[1017,1613,1615],{"id":1614},"prediction-markets-new-zealand","Prediction Markets New Zealand",[702,1617,1618,1619,841],{},"New Zealand's sports analytics community focuses heavily on ",[712,1620,1621],{},"probability forecasting for rugby, cricket, and football tournaments",[702,1623,1624,1625,1628],{},"Prediction markets New Zealand users often analyze ",[712,1626,1627],{},"international sports events"," using statistical models.",[752,1630],{},[697,1632,1634],{"id":1633},"upcoming-events-prediction-markets","Upcoming Events Prediction Markets",[702,1636,1637,1638,841],{},"Prediction markets continuously track ",[712,1639,1640],{},"future global events",[702,1642,1435],{},[780,1644,1645,1655],{},[783,1646,1647],{},[786,1648,1649,1652],{},[789,1650,1651],{},"Event Type",[789,1653,1654],{},"Example Forecast",[799,1656,1657,1664,1671,1678],{},[786,1658,1659,1661],{},[804,1660,9],{},[804,1662,1663],{},"Upcoming World Cup tournaments",[786,1665,1666,1668],{},[804,1667,38],{},[804,1669,1670],{},"National elections",[786,1672,1673,1675],{},[804,1674,1467],{},[804,1676,1677],{},"Major product releases",[786,1679,1680,1682],{},[804,1681,136],{},[804,1683,1684],{},"Interest rate changes",[702,1686,1687,1688,1691],{},"Forecasting platforms provide ",[712,1689,1690],{},"probability updates in real time"," as new information becomes available.",[752,1693],{},[697,1695,1697],{"id":1696},"prediction-market-probability-calculator","Prediction Market Probability Calculator",[702,1699,1700],{},"Many forecasting platforms include tools that help users convert market prices into probabilities.",[702,1702,1703],{},"Formula:",[702,1705,1706],{},"Probability (%) = Market Price × 100",[702,1708,1709],{},"Example:",[780,1711,1712,1721],{},[783,1713,1714],{},[786,1715,1716,1718],{},[789,1717,794],{},[789,1719,1720],{},"Probability",[799,1722,1723,1731,1739],{},[786,1724,1725,1728],{},[804,1726,1727],{},"0.65",[804,1729,1730],{},"65%",[786,1732,1733,1736],{},[804,1734,1735],{},"0.40",[804,1737,1738],{},"40%",[786,1740,1741,1744],{},[804,1742,1743],{},"0.15",[804,1745,1746],{},"15%",[702,1748,1749,1750,841],{},"This simple calculation allows users to interpret ",[712,1751,1752],{},"prediction market probabilities instantly",[752,1754],{},[697,1756,1758],{"id":1757},"how-to-use-prediction-markets-for-event-forecasting","How to Use Prediction Markets for Event Forecasting",[702,1760,1761],{},"A typical workflow looks like this:",[1150,1763,1764,1767,1770,1773,1776],{},[869,1765,1766],{},"Identify an event market",[869,1768,1769],{},"Analyze probability trends",[869,1771,1772],{},"Compare model predictions",[869,1774,1775],{},"Evaluate market inefficiencies",[869,1777,1778],{},"Track updates as new information arrives",[702,1780,1781,1782,1785],{},"Combining ",[712,1783,1784],{},"data models with market intelligence"," produces the most accurate forecasts.",[752,1787],{},[697,1789,1791],{"id":1790},"future-of-prediction-markets","Future of Prediction Markets",[702,1793,1794,1795,841],{},"Prediction markets are expected to grow significantly as more industries adopt ",[712,1796,1797],{},"probability-based decision making",[702,1799,1800],{},"Key future trends include:",[866,1802,1803,1806,1809,1812,1815],{},[869,1804,1805],{},"AI-driven forecasting models",[869,1807,1808],{},"Blockchain prediction platforms",[869,1810,1811],{},"Global event forecasting networks",[869,1813,1814],{},"Integration with financial markets",[869,1816,1817],{},"Real-time probability analytics",[702,1819,1820,1821,841],{},"These developments will make prediction markets one of the ",[712,1822,1823],{},"most important forecasting tools in the digital economy",[752,1825],{},[697,1827,1829],{"id":1828},"frequently-asked-questions","Frequently Asked Questions",[1017,1831,1833],{"id":1832},"what-is-a-prediction-market","What is a prediction market?",[702,1835,1836],{},"A prediction market is a platform where users forecast future events by trading probability contracts that represent the likelihood of outcomes.",[752,1838],{},[1017,1840,1842],{"id":1841},"are-prediction-markets-accurate","Are prediction markets accurate?",[702,1844,1845,1846,1849],{},"Yes. Research shows that ",[712,1847,1848],{},"prediction markets often outperform traditional forecasts and expert predictions"," because they aggregate information from many participants.",[752,1851],{},[1017,1853,1855],{"id":1854},"how-do-prediction-markets-calculate-probabilities","How do prediction markets calculate probabilities?",[702,1857,1858,1859,1862],{},"The market price of an outcome contract reflects its ",[712,1860,1861],{},"implied probability",". For example, a price of $0.60 represents a 60% probability.",[752,1864],{},[1017,1866,1868],{"id":1867},"what-events-can-be-predicted","What events can be predicted?",[702,1870,1871],{},"Prediction markets can forecast almost anything, including:",[866,1873,1874,1876,1878,1880,1883],{},[869,1875,952],{},[869,1877,68],{},[869,1879,959],{},[869,1881,1882],{},"Technology developments",[869,1884,1885],{},"Global news events",[752,1887],{},[1017,1889,1891],{"id":1890},"are-sports-prediction-markets-popular","Are sports prediction markets popular?",[702,1893,1894,1895,1900],{},"Yes. Sports forecasting—especially ",[712,1896,1897,1899],{},[719,1898,741],{"href":721}," and football probability models","—is one of the largest categories in event forecasting.",[752,1902],{},[697,1904,1906],{"id":1905},"final-thoughts","Final Thoughts",[702,1908,1909,1910,1913,1914,1917],{},"Prediction markets represent the ",[712,1911,1912],{},"future of forecasting",". By combining ",[712,1915,1916],{},"crowd intelligence, statistical models, and market incentives",", they create highly accurate probability estimates for real-world events.",[702,1919,1920,1921,1924],{},"Whether you want to analyze ",[712,1922,1923],{},"World Cup probability forecasts, upcoming sports events, political predictions, or global trends",", prediction markets provide a powerful framework for understanding the future.",[702,1926,1927,1928,1931],{},"As forecasting technology continues to evolve, platforms that integrate ",[712,1929,1930],{},"data-driven models, real-time market signals, and global participation"," will define the next generation of event prediction systems.",{"title":1933,"searchDepth":1934,"depth":1934,"links":1935},"",2,[1936,1937,1938,1945,1946,1947,1948,1949,1950,1951,1952,1953,1954],{"id":1019,"depth":1934,"text":1020},{"id":1137,"depth":1934,"text":1138},{"id":1324,"depth":1934,"text":1325,"children":1939},[1940,1942,1943,1944],{"id":1386,"depth":1941,"text":1387},3,{"id":1393,"depth":1941,"text":1394},{"id":1403,"depth":1941,"text":1404},{"id":1413,"depth":1941,"text":1414},{"id":1506,"depth":1934,"text":1507},{"id":1535,"depth":1934,"text":1536},{"id":1562,"depth":1934,"text":1563},{"id":1588,"depth":1934,"text":1589},{"id":1614,"depth":1934,"text":1615},{"id":1832,"depth":1934,"text":1833},{"id":1841,"depth":1934,"text":1842},{"id":1854,"depth":1934,"text":1855},{"id":1867,"depth":1934,"text":1868},{"id":1890,"depth":1934,"text":1891},"Probability models for predicting future events using prediction markets","md",{},"\u002F_includes\u002Fhome",{"title":692,"description":1955},"_includes\u002Fhome","Uu1Wl4b7otyZMjkiSSys3oEeW061bHGg0xhWO4BROBM",1780676568347]